Lecce vs Fiorentina Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare Mon, 20 Apr - 6:45 PM
Serie A
Lecce LEC
Versus
Fiorentina FIO
KICKOFF : Mon, 20 Apr - 6:45 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Lecce welcome Fiorentina to the Stadio Comunale Via del Mare for a Serie A Regular Season fixture in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts sit 18th in the table and have struggled for consistency, while the visitors occupy 15th place with greater momentum. Power scores underline a clear edge for Fiorentina at 32.6 against Lecce's 12.02, creating a 20.6 point advantage for the away side. Lecce arrive on the back of an away loss to Bologna and hold a modest form record of one win in six matches. Fiorentina conversely show three wins and two draws from their last six, capped by a home success over Lazio. The match offers Lecce a chance to gain ground at home but demands a sharp improvement against a Fiorentina team that appears better equipped to control proceedings and push higher up the standings.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Lecce in 18th host 15th-placed Fiorentina with home advantage at Via del Mare yet a 20.6 point power gap favors the visitors in this league setting.
  • Form: Lecce W1 D0 L5 from six matches after away loss to Bologna. Fiorentina W3 D2 L1 and buoyed by recent home win over Lazio.
  • Squad: Fiorentina hold the stronger squad profile according to power metrics, offering more depth and quality than Lecce's current roster.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data remains limited and unavailable for detailed review, leaving overall process evaluation reliant on broader performance indicators.
  • Transition: Fiorentina display more effective transitions reflected in their 61.11 form score versus Lecce's 16.67, aiding quicker attacks from defensive recovery.
  • Set pieces: Set piece metrics carry low confidence with proxy data applied. Limited insight available on xG reliance or conversion for either side.
  • xVariable: Power score differential stands as the primary variable, highlighting Fiorentina's 32.6 rating against Lecce's 12.02 as the decisive edge.
  • Market: Lecce 27.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.1% (Δ+0%) | Fiorentina 43.9% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Lecce E. Di Francesco
E. Di Francesco
VS
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
0.84
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bologna Rank: L
Atalanta Rank: L
Roma Rank: L
Napoli Rank: L
Cremonese Rank: W
Como Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lazio Rank: W
Hellas Verona Rank: W
Inter Rank: D
Cremonese Rank: W
Parma Rank: D
Udinese Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Lecce
27.93%
Draw
28.14%
Away Fiorentina
43.94%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
12.02
32.6
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Lecce
Fiorentina
Power Score
12.02
32.6
League Position
18
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Lecce — Opponent-weighted form score
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Lecce Fiorentina

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Lecce LEC Home
17 matches
Fiorentina FIO Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
6
Goals
16
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
16
-8
Goal Difference
+8
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:17:29+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
W. Falcone
30 W. Falcone
D. Melo Veiga
17 D. Melo Veiga
J. Siebert
5 J. Siebert
T. Coelho Oliveira
44 T. Coelho Oliveira
C. Ndaba
3 C. Ndaba
O. Ngom
79 O. Ngom
Y. Ramadani
20 Y. Ramadani
L. Coulibaly
29 L. Coulibaly
S. Pierotti
50 S. Pierotti
N. Štulić
9 N. Štulić
L. Banda
19 L. Banda
D. de Gea Quintana
43 D. de Gea Quintana
R. Gosens
21 R. Gosens
L. Ranieri
6 L. Ranieri
D. Rugani
3 D. Rugani
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
G. Fabbian
80 G. Fabbian
R. Mandragora
8 R. Mandragora
C. Ndour
27 C. Ndour
J. Fazzini
22 J. Fazzini
R. Piccoli
91 R. Piccoli
J. Harrison
17 J. Harrison

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 20, 2026, 06:45 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Capacity
40800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Mario Perri
Fabio Maresca
Valerio Colarossi
Pietro Dei Giudici

Expected Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

30
Wladimiro Falcone
Wladimiro Falcone Goalkeeper
6.8
19
Lameck Banda
Lameck Banda Attacker
6.62
50
Santiago Pierotti
Santiago Pierotti Attacker
6.53
9
Nikola Stulic
Nikola Stulic Centre Forward
6.66
3
Corrie Ndaba
Corrie Ndaba Left Back
6.42
5
Jamil Siebert
Jamil Siebert Right Back
6.76
20
Ylber Ramadani
Ylber Ramadani Central Midfield
6.78
29
Lassana Coulibaly
Lassana Coulibaly Central Midfield
6.81
44
Tiago Gabriel
Tiago Gabriel Left Back
6.9
79
Oumar Ngom
Oumar Ngom Central Midfield
6.66
17
Danilo Veiga
Danilo Veiga Right Back
6.68
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.84
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.72
22
Jacopo Fazzini
Jacopo Fazzini Attacker
6.58
91
Roberto Piccoli
Roberto Piccoli Centre Forward
6.69
2
Dodô
Dodô Right Back
6.91
3
Daniele Rugani
Daniele Rugani Right Back
6.59
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Left Back
6.74
8
Rolando Mandragora
Rolando Mandragora Central Midfield
7.09
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Left Back
6.85
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Central Midfield
6.66
80
Giovanni Fabbian
Giovanni Fabbian Central Midfield
6.67

CONCLUSION

Fiorentina enter this fixture as the stronger proposition given their superior power score, healthier recent form and positive result against Lazio. Lecce must harness home support to arrest a slide that has produced just one win in six outings while sitting 18th in the table. The visitors look capable of dictating rhythm and exploiting transitions, though the hosts could create difficulties if they tighten defensively at Via del Mare. This meeting ultimately tests whether Lecce can bridge the quality gap or if Fiorentina's overall attributes will prevail. A measured, structured performance from the away side should allow them to collect valuable points and continue their climb away from the lower reaches.

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