Le Havre vs Olympique Marseille Prediction, Preview and Stats

France flag 2025/2026 Ligue 1, France
Stade Océane Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Ligue 1
Le Havre LEH
Versus
Olympique Marseille OM
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 7:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Le Havre host Olympique Marseille at Stade Océane in Ligue 1's 2025/2026 regular season, a matchup pitting mid-table resilience against top-six ambition. The hosts sit 14th with a solid form score of 9.61, outperforming Marseille's 4.56 despite the visitors' superior power rating of 78.59 to 67.48, an 11.1-point edge. Marseille, 7th in the standings, bring structural quality but recent struggles could expose vulnerabilities. Projections lean towards Marseille at 48.9%, with Le Havre at 25.5% and draw at 25.6%. Limited data on set pieces shows low confidence proxies for both, suggesting open-play dynamics will dominate. Le Havre's home crowd may fuel an upset bid against Marseille's talent.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Olympique Marseille hold a clear structural advantage with a power score of 78.59 against Le Havre's 67.48 and an 11.1-point edge.
  • Form: Le Havre show stronger recent form with a score of 9.61 compared to Olympique Marseille's 4.56.
  • Squad: Le Havre occupy 14th place while Olympique Marseille sit 7th in the Ligue 1 domestic standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available for either team.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats rely on low-confidence proxy data with no xG available for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables are unavailable due to lack of data for both squads.
  • Market: Le Havre 27.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.6% (Δ+0%) | Olympique Marseille 47.4% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Le Havre D. Digard
D. Digard
VS
Olympique Marseille H. Beye
H. Beye
0.9
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.4
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 D
Metz Rank: 61 D
Angers SCO Rank: 67 D
Nice Rank: 69 D
Auxerre Rank: 70 D
Paris Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nantes Rank: 65 L
Nice Rank: 71 D
Lorient Rank: 72 L
Metz Rank: 62 W
Monaco Rank: 80 L
LOSC Lille Rank: 81 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Le Havre
27.05%
Draw
25.58%
Away Olympique Marseille
47.36%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
67.48
78.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Le Havre
Olympique Marseille
Power Score
67.48
78.59
League Position
14
7
Global Rank
263
69

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Le Havre — Opponent-weighted form score
Olympique Marseille — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Le Havre Olympique Marseille

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Le Havre LEH Home
7 matches
Olympique Marseille OM Away
Match Record
0
Wins
7
0
Draws
0
7
Losses
0
Goals
5
Goals Scored
22
22
Goals Conceded
5
-17
Goal Difference
+17

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T02:02:13+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
M. Diaw
99 M. Diaw
L. Nego
7 L. Nego
A. Seko
15 A. Seko
G. Lloris
4 G. Lloris
Y. Zouaoui
18 Y. Zouaoui
L. Gourna Douath
19 L. Gourna Douath
S. Ebonog
26 S. Ebonog
F. Doucouré
13 F. Doucouré
S. Boufal
17 S. Boufal
I. Soumaré
45 I. Soumaré
M. Samatta
25 M. Samatta
J. de Lange
12 J. de Lange
E. Palmieri dos Santos
33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
F. Medina
32 F. Medina
L. Balerdi Rossa
5 L. Balerdi Rossa
T. Weah
22 T. Weah
P. Højbjerg
23 P. Højbjerg
A. Vermeeren
18 A. Vermeeren
I. Barbosa da Paixão
14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
Q. Timber
27 Q. Timber
M. Greenwood
10 M. Greenwood
P. Aubameyang
17 P. Aubameyang

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Ligue 1, France · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stade Océane
Capacity :
25181
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Benoît Bastien
Hicham Zakrani
Aurélien Berthomieu
Mikael Lesage

Expected Lineup

Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

99
Mory Diaw
Mory Diaw Goalkeeper
6.93
25
Ally Samatta
Ally Samatta Centre Forward
6.65
4
Gautier Lloris
Gautier Lloris Left Back
6.96
7
Loïc Nego
Loïc Nego Right Back
6.76
13
Fodé Doucouré
Fodé Doucouré Right Wing
6.72
15
Ayumu Seko
Ayumu Seko Right Back
6.77
17
Sofiane Boufal
Sofiane Boufal Attacking Midfield
6.84
18
Yanis Zouaoui
Yanis Zouaoui Left Back
6.85
19
Lucas Gourna-Douath
Lucas Gourna-Douath Defensive Midfield
6.77
26
Simon Ebonog
Simon Ebonog Defensive Midfield
6.61
45
Issa Soumaré
Issa Soumaré Left Wing
7.08
Referee : Benoît Bastien

Starting XI ▼

12
Jeffrey de Lange
Jeffrey de Lange Goalkeeper
6.53
17
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang Centre Forward
6.96
5
Leonardo Balerdi
Leonardo Balerdi Right Back
6.79
10
Mason Greenwood
Mason Greenwood Right Wing
7.54
14
Igor Paixão
Igor Paixão Left Wing
6.91
18
Arthur Vermeeren
Arthur Vermeeren Defensive Midfield
6.64
22
Timothy Weah
Timothy Weah Right Back
6.84
23
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Defensive Midfield
7.18
27
Quinten Timber
Quinten Timber Attacking Midfield
6.73
32
Facundo Medina
Facundo Medina Left Back
6.8
33
Emerson
Emerson Left Back
7.02

CONCLUSION

Olympique Marseille enter as favorites thanks to their higher power score and league position, but Le Havre's superior form score signals potential for a gritty home performance. The 11.1-point structural gap favors the visitors, yet recent momentum tilts towards the hosts in this balanced projection. Without standout set-piece edges, expect a contest defined by midfield control and clinical finishing. Marseille's quality should shine through, though Le Havre could frustrate with defensive organization and counter threats at Stade Océane.

Le Havre vs Olympique Marseille preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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