Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction, Preview and Stats

Türkiye flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Versus
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 5:00 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Kocaelispor host Fatih Karagümrük at İsmetpaşa Stadyumu in a crucial Super Lig regular season encounter during the 2025/2026 campaign. The 10th-placed hosts hold a slight edge with a power score of 57.1 compared to the visitors' 55.38, translating to a 1.7-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Despite Karagümrük languishing in 18th, they arrive with stronger recent form at 15.22 versus Kocaelispor's 12.06, hinting at potential upset potential on the road. Home advantage could prove decisive for the Izmit side, who have climbed steadily in the standings while the Istanbul outfit battles relegation pressures. Midfield control and defensive solidity will be pivotal, with Kocaelispor aiming to capitalize on their higher ranking and power metrics. Limited advanced data on set pieces and efficiency leaves room for tactical surprises, setting the stage for a tightly contested affair where every point counts in the race for mid-table security.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Kocaelispor ranks 10th with a 57.1 power score, superior to 18th-placed Fatih Karagümrük's 55.38.
  • Form: Fatih Karagümrük holds a higher form score of 15.22 compared to Kocaelispor's 12.06.
  • Squad: Kocaelispor possesses a 1.7-point power advantage over Fatih Karagümrük.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not provided for this matchup.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to low confidence and lack of xG.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable for both Kocaelispor and Fatih Karagümrük.
  • Market: Kocaelispor 51.4% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.5% (Δ+0%) | Fatih Karagümrük 22.1% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
VS
Fatih Karagümrük A. Stanojević
A. Stanojević
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kasımpaşa Rank: 66 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 L
Göztepe Rank: 72 D
Galatasaray Rank: 88 D
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 75 D
Alanyaspor Rank: 68 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Eyüpspor Rank: 61 L
Konyaspor Rank: 68 L
Rizespor Rank: 69 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Kocaelispor
51.4%
Draw
26.51%
Away Fatih Karagümrük
22.1%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.1
55.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
Power Score
57.1
55.38
League Position
10
18
Global Rank
328
413

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Fatih Karagümrük — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Kocaelispor Fatih Karagümrük

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Home
1 matches
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T02:05:46+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-4-2
Pitch
S. Öztaşdelen
83 S. Öztaşdelen
A. Oğuz
22 A. Oğuz
A. Dijksteel
2 A. Dijksteel
M. Da Silva Cafumana
14 M. Da Silva Cafumana
M. Haïdara
21 M. Haïdara
M. Susoho
20 M. Susoho
J. Nonge Boende
98 J. Nonge Boende
H. Keita
8 H. Keita
C. Keles
70 C. Keles
S. Dursun
19 S. Dursun
D. Agyei
7 D. Agyei
I. Grbić
13 I. Grbić
F. Mladenović
25 F. Mladenović
I. Lichnovsky Osorio
3 I. Lichnovsky Osorio
D. Biraschi
4 D. Biraschi
R. Sousa Esgaio
47 R. Sousa Esgaio
B. Kalayci
72 B. Kalayci
C. Kranevitter
5 C. Kranevitter
B. Özcan
8 B. Özcan
A. Traore
88 A. Traore
T. Cukur
21 T. Cukur
W. Shavy
80 W. Shavy

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Super Lig, Türkiye · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
İsmetpaşa Stadyumu
Capacity :
34829
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

83
Serhat Öztaşdelen
Serhat Öztaşdelen Goalkeeper
6.91
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Attacker
6.59
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Centre Forward
6.74
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş Attacker
6.55
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Central Midfield
6.78
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Right Back
6.69
14
Show
Show Left Back
6.8
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Central Midfield
6.63
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho Central Midfield
6.65
21
Massadio Haïdara
Massadio Haïdara Left Back
6.81
22
Ahmet Oğuz
Ahmet Oğuz Right Back
6.95

Starting XI ▼

13
Ivo Grbic
Ivo Grbic Goalkeeper
7.08
72
Barış Kalaycı
Barış Kalaycı Midfielder
6.69
88
Ahmed Traore
Ahmed Traore Midfielder
6.54
21
Tiago Çukur
Tiago Çukur Attacker
6.72
80
Shavy Babicka
Shavy Babicka Attacker
6.7
3
Igor Lichnovsky
Igor Lichnovsky Left Back
6.91
5
Matías Kranevitter
Matías Kranevitter Central Midfield
6.58
47
Ricardo Esgaio
Ricardo Esgaio Right Back
6.56
4
Davide Biraschi
Davide Biraschi Right Back
6.55
8
Berkay Özcan
Berkay Özcan Central Midfield
6.69
25
Filip Mladenovic
Filip Mladenovic Left Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

Kocaelispor's home strength and superior power rating position them as favorites against a formidably resilient yet table-bottom Fatih Karagümrük. The hosts' 10th-place standing offers stability, while Karagümrük's better form score suggests they could grind out a result if they neutralize midfield battles. Expect a cagey affair at İsmetpaşa Stadyumu, where defensive organization trumps attacking flair amid sparse advanced stats. Kocaelispor's slight edge should see them edge a narrow victory, bolstering their mid-table ambitions in the Super Lig's 2025/2026 season.

Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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