Karpaty vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction, Preview and Stats

Ukraine flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine
Stadion Ukrajina Sun, 22 Mar - 4:00 PM
Premier League
Karpaty Karpaty
4 Winner 0
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 4:00 PM
Round 21 Regular Season
Bruninho - 22', 52'
Xeber Alkain - 37'
Artur Shakh - 87'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match between Karpaty and Obolon'-Brovar has finished, with the home side securing a comfortable 2-0 victory. Karpaty did all of their scoring early in the fixture, taking a 2-0 lead into the half-time break and smoothly maintaining that advantage until the final whistle. Heading into the contest, Karpaty were viewed as the stronger team with a 52.6% probability of winning, alongside a 29.9% chance for a draw and a 17.5% chance for an away upset. The final outcome was firmly aligned with this pre-match market. However, confirming the win still represented a significant deviation level, as Karpaty successfully navigated a 47.4% deviation percentage to claim all three points. On the pitch, the hosts dictated the flow of play, holding 55% of the possession compared to Obolon'-Brovar's 45%. Because expected goals (xG) data was not available for this encounter, it cannot be determined if the final score strictly aligned with the quality of chances created. Nevertheless, the attacking efficiency shift was deemed perfectly in line with standard match expectations. Finally, the game was played without major disciplinary incidents, as neither team received a red card to alter the tactical landscape.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Karpaty showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Karpaty F. Fernández Díaz
F. Fernández Díaz
VS
Obolon'-Brovar O. Antonenko
O. Antonenko
1.27
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.93
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
SK Poltava Rank: 34 W
Kudrivka Rank: 43 D
Kolos Kovalivka Rank: 52 L
Shakhtar Donetsk Rank: 73 L
Polissya Zhytomyr Rank: 62 L
Zorya Luhansk Rank: 52 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dynamo Kyiv Rank: 66 L
Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih Rank: 57 D
Rukh Vynnyky Rank: 46 W
Oleksandria Rank: 47 D
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Rank: 50 L
LNZ Cherkasy Rank: 58 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Karpaty
52.61%
Draw
29.88%
Away Obolon'-Brovar
17.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.76
42.59
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
Power Score
51.76
42.59
League Position
9
12
Global Rank
720
950

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Karpaty — Opponent-weighted form score
Obolon'-Brovar — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Karpaty Obolon'-Brovar

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Karpaty

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Obolon'-Brovar

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.27
25.56
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.56
32.27
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Karpaty +0.65 Efficiency Index
vs
Obolon'-Brovar -0.65 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Karpaty ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Obolon'-Brovar
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Karpaty Obolon'-Brovar
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Karpaty Obolon'-Brovar
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Karpaty Karpaty Home
3 matches
Obolon'-Brovar Obolon'-Brovar Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
5
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
5
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:25:00+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
N. Domchak
Ukraine
1 N. Domchak
D. Miroshnichenko
Ukraine
11 D. Miroshnichenko
V. Baboglo
Moldova
4 V. Baboglo
V. Kholod
Ukraine
44 V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
Ukraine
73 R. Lyakh
E. da Silva Gomes
Substitution
Brazil
35 E. da Silva Gomes
X. Alkain Mitxelena
Substitution
Spain
70 X. Alkain Mitxelena
A. Chachua
Ukraine
8 A. Chachua
B. Pereira da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
37 B. Pereira da Silva
P. Fernandes Pereira
Substitution
Brazil
7 P. Fernandes Pereira
B. Faal
Substitution
Gambia
99 B. Faal
D. Marchenko
Ukraine
31 D. Marchenko
E. Shevchenko
Ukraine
5 E. Shevchenko
O. Zhovtenko
Substitution
Ukraine
44 O. Zhovtenko
A. Lomnytskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
32 A. Lomnytskyi
D. Semenov
Ukraine
50 D. Semenov
P. Polehenko
Ukraine
28 P. Polehenko
R. Volokhatiy
Ukraine
20 R. Volokhatiy
V. Pryymak
Ukraine
3 V. Pryymak
A. Kulakovskyi
Substitution
Ukraine
8 A. Kulakovskyi
I. Nesterenko
Substitution
Ukraine
40 I. Nesterenko
D. Ustymenko
Substitution
Ukraine
9 D. Ustymenko

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Ukraine · Round 21 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Ukrajina
Capacity
28051
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oleksiy Derevinskyi
Oleksiy Myronov
Hrushko Svitlana
Oleksandr Solovyan

Statistics

Possession
Karpaty
55%
Obolon'-Brovar
45%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
6 Shots 2
75 Dangerous attacks 50
55 Possession 45
2 Corners 4
2 Free kicks 2
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

3 Goal Kicks 11
3 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1
22 Dribble Attempts 12
18 Successful Dribbles 6
16 Throwins 13
82 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

90 Attacks 83

Possession

418 Passes 354
37 Long Passes 48
26 Successful Long Passes 26
355 Successful Passes 290
85 Successful Passes Percentage 82
70 Successful Long Passes Percentage 54

Defensive

3 Saves 4
2 Tackles 4
19 Interceptions 12

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 12
6 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

9 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

1
Nazar Domchak
Nazar Domchak Goalkeeper
7.17
4
Vladyslav Baboglo
Vladyslav Baboglo Defender
7.33
11
Denys Miroshnichenko
Denys Miroshnichenko Defender
7.14
44
Vitaliy Kholod
Vitaliy Kholod Defender
7.07
73
Rostyslav Lyakh
Rostyslav Lyakh Defender
7
7
Paulo Vitor
Paulo Vitor Midfielder
7.7
10
Stênio
Stênio
Midfielder65'
6.7
8
Ambrosiy Chachua
Ambrosiy Chachua Midfielder
7.05
35
Edson Fernando
Edson Fernando Midfielder
6.7
18
Eriki
Eriki
Midfielder89'
37
Bruninho
Bruninho Midfielder
2
9.08
33
Artur Shakh
Artur Shakh
Midfielder74'
7.06
70
Xeber Alkain
Xeber Alkain Midfielder
7.54
15
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Valentyn Rubchynskyi
Midfielder74'
6.73
99
Baboucarr Faal
Baboucarr Faal Attacker
7.04
19
Yaroslav Karabin
Yaroslav Karabin
Attacker89'
Referee : Oleksiy Derevinskyi

Starting XI ▼

31
Denys Marchenko
Denys Marchenko Goalkeeper
6.21
5
Yevgeniy Shevchenko
Yevgeniy Shevchenko Defender
6
28
Pavlo Polegenko
Pavlo Polegenko Defender
5.68
32
Andriy Lomnytskyi
Andriy Lomnytskyi Defender
5.96
55
Sergiy Sukhanov
Sergiy Sukhanov
Midfielder58'
6.55
44
O. Zhovtenko
O. Zhovtenko Defender
5.89
24
Yegor Prokopenko
Yegor Prokopenko
Midfielder45+2'
6.39
50
Dmytro Semenov
Dmytro Semenov Defender
6.05
3
Vladyslav Pryimak
Vladyslav Pryimak Midfielder
6.5
8
Artem Kulakovskyi
Artem Kulakovskyi Midfielder
6.16
75
Maksym Tretyakov
Maksym Tretyakov
Midfielder45+2'
6.7
20
R. Volokhatyi
R. Volokhatyi Midfielder
6.27
9
Denys Ustymenko
Denys Ustymenko Attacker
6.68
13
Igor Medynskyi
Igor Medynskyi
Midfielder77'
6.53
40
Ivan Nesterenko
Ivan Nesterenko Attacker
6.33
90
Taras Lyakh
Taras Lyakh
Attacker70'
6.54

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Yaroslav Karabin → Baboucarr Faal
10th Substitution
89'
Event
Eriki → Edson Fernando
9th Substitution
89'
Event
Artur Shakh
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
87'
Event
7th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Edson Fernando
5th Yellowcard
78'
78'
Event
Vladyslav Pryimak
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Igor Medynskyi → Denys Ustymenko
8th Substitution
Event
Valentyn Rubchynskyi → Xeber Alkain
6th Substitution
74'
Event
Artur Shakh → Bruninho
7th Substitution
74'
73'
Event
Sergiy Sukhanov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
70'
Event
Taras Lyakh → Ivan Nesterenko
5th Substitution
Event
Stênio → Paulo Vitor
4th Substitution
65'
58'
Event
Sergiy Sukhanov → Andriy Lomnytskyi
3rd Substitution
Event
Bruninho
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
52'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Maksym Tretyakov → Artem Kulakovskyi
2nd Substitution
45+2'
Event
Yegor Prokopenko → O. Zhovtenko
1st Substitution
Event
Xeber Alkain
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
37'
33'
Event
O. Zhovtenko
3rd Yellowcard
Event
Vladyslav Baboglo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
32'
27'
Event
Artem Kulakovskyi
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Bruninho
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
22'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Karpaty exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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