Istra 1961 vs Osijek Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadion Aldo Drosina Fri, 6 Mar - 5:00 PM
1. HNL
Istra 1961 Istra 1961
0 Winner 1
Osijek Osijek
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 5:00 PM
|
Goal
Nail Omerovic - 61'

CONTEXT

The match between Istra 1961 and Osijek has officially finished, with the visitors securing a 1-0 full-time victory. Following a tightly contested and scoreless first half, Osijek ultimately found the second-half breakthrough to claim all three points. Heading into the fixture, the pre-match market anticipated a highly balanced contest. Projections gave Istra 1961 a 34.1% chance of winning, while Osijek held a marginal advantage at 35% alongside a 31% probability of a draw. With the visitors claiming the win, the final result ultimately aligned with the pre-match market. Even so, Osijek's performance showcased a significant deviation from baseline expectations, outperforming typical metrics for this matchup. Despite the defeat, Istra 1961 controlled the tempo, holding 57% of the possession compared to Osijek's 43%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this match, making it impossible to assess whether the outcome was consistent with the underlying shot quality. Nevertheless, the calculated efficiency shift was squarely in line with the final result, as Osijek proved more clinical with their limited time on the ball. Finally, the match was a disciplined affair, with no red cards issued to either side.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Osijek showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Strukan
D. Strukan
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Jakšić
A. Jakšić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
V. Vidović
V. Vidović
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
F. Dragasevic
F. Dragasevic
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 3.88
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.75
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Istra 1961 O. Riera Magem
O. Riera Magem
VS
Osijek T. Radotic
T. Radotic
1.32
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.89
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Slaven Koprivnica Rank: L
Gorica Rank: L
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Vukovar Rank: L
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: D
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Vukovar Rank: W
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: W
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
17
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
17 - 20 - 26
26

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Istra 1961
34.06%
Draw
30.99%
Away Osijek
34.95%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40
30.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Istra 1961
Osijek
Power Score
40
30.67
League Position
6
9
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Istra 1961 — Opponent-weighted form score
Osijek — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Istra 1961 Osijek

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Istra 1961

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Osijek

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
26.75
26.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.98
26.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Istra 1961 -0.02 Efficiency Index
vs
Osijek +0.02 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Osijek
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Istra 1961 ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Osijek
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Istra 1961 Osijek
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Istra 1961 Osijek
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Istra 1961
Osijek
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Istra 1961 Istra 1961 Home
22 matches
Osijek Osijek Away
Match Record
9
Wins
9
4
Draws
4
9
Losses
9
Goals
32
Goals Scored
35
35
Goals Conceded
32
-3
Goal Difference
+3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:27:01+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
Stadion Aldo Drosina
Capacity
9800
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Duje Strukan
Alen Jakšić
Vice Vidović
Filip Dragasevic

Statistics

Possession
Istra 1961
56%
Osijek
44%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
12 Shots 9
65 Dangerous attacks 52
57 Possession 43
7 Corners 2
16 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 4

Match Overview

30 Throwins 24
21 Dribble Attempts 10
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
9 Successful Dribbles 4
11 Goal Kicks 3
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

119 Attacks 93
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 81
46 Long Passes 46
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30
21 Successful Long Passes 14
459 Passes 353
372 Successful Passes 286

Defensive

11 Tackles 18
7 Interceptions 7
2 Saves 2

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 5
19 Total Crosses 17

Discipline

15 Fouls 16
4 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
David Colina → Arnel Jakupovic
10th Substitution
Event
Charles Adah Agada → Leo Stulac
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Advan Kadusic
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
79'
76'
Event
7th Yellowcard
76'
Event
David Mejía
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Marcel Heister → Samuli Miettinen
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Nik Skafar Zuzic → Stjepan Loncar
8th Substitution
74'
Event
Vinko Rozic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Dukan Ahmeti → Emil Frederiksen
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Vinko Rozic → Antonio Mauric
6th Substitution
67'
63'
Event
Anton Matkovic → Samuel Akere
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Jon Mersinaj → Ivano Kolarik
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Nail Omerovic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
54'
Event
Ivano Kolarik
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Nail Omerovic → Domagoj Bukvic
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Tonio Teklic → Simun Mikolcic
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
42'
Event
Simun Mikolcic
2nd Yellowcard
32'
Event
Vladan Bubanja
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Osijek exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews