Heracles Almelo vs Ajax Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Asito Stadion Sat, 11 Apr - 7:00 PM
Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo HEA
0 Winner 3
Ajax AJA
Full Time Sat, 11 Apr 7:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
|
Goal
Mika Godts - 16'
Steven Berghuis - 17', 47'
|
Red Card Takehiro Tomiyasu 79'

CONTEXT

The match between Heracles Almelo and Ajax is finished, ending in a 3-0 victory for the visitors. Ajax were clear pre-match favorites with a 60.1 share of expected outcomes, and the result delivered a significant deviation in their favor as they converted dominance into a comprehensive win. Ajax controlled 60 percent possession to Heracles’ 40 percent. No expected goals data was available, but the efficiency shift stayed in line with projections and the outcome proved consistent with the pre-match view. A red card to Ajax created second-half distortion, yet the visitors still added a further goal while keeping Heracles at arm’s length. The result underlined Ajax’s superiority on the day, even after the numerical disadvantage, and confirmed the pre-match assessment that the home side would struggle to pose a serious threat.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Ajax showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. van den Kerkhof
M. van den Kerkhof
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
R. Polman
R. Polman
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
R. van de Ven
R. van de Ven
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
W. Wiersma
W. Wiersma
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 18.29
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.11
Heracles Almelo E. Faber
E. Faber
VS
Ajax Ó. García Junyent
Ó. García Junyent
0.76
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
SC Heerenveen Rank: L
Excelsior Rank: D
AZ Rank: L
FC Utrecht Rank: D
PSV Rank: L
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Twente Rank: L
Feyenoord Rank: D
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: W
FC Groningen Rank: L
PEC Zwolle Rank: D
NEC Nijmegen Rank: D
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 7 - 29
29

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Heracles Almelo
18.78%
Draw
21.17%
Away Ajax
60.06%

Movement

Changes since opening
Heracles Almelo
+18.29%
Draw
+19.26%
Ajax
-37.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
11.81
28.38
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Power Score
11.81
28.38
League Position
18
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Heracles Almelo — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Heracles Almelo Ajax

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Heracles Almelo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Heracles Almelo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.00
33.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
33.75
43.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Heracles Almelo +1.00 Efficiency Index
vs
Ajax -1.00 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Heracles Almelo
Ajax
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Heracles Almelo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Heracles Almelo Ajax
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Heracles Almelo Ajax
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Heracles Almelo
Ajax
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Heracles Almelo
vs
Ajax
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Heracles Almelo Ajax
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Heracles Almelo 0.34
Ajax 0.40
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Heracles Almelo Ajax
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Heracles Almelo 0.07
Ajax 0.00
Heracles Almelo
Ajax
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • HEA had peak pressure around 88'.
  • HEA started the game with stronger pressure.
HEA Pressure AJA Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: HEA reached the top pressure at 88' (97.42).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 39 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Heracles Almelo HEA Home
39 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
3
Wins
29
7
Draws
7
29
Losses
3
Goals
26
Goals Scored
101
101
Goals Conceded
26
-75
Goal Difference
+75
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-12T03:04:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Pasveer
Netherlands
22 R. Pasveer
J. Wieckhoff
Substitution
Germany
3 J. Wieckhoff
D. Mirani
Netherlands
4 D. Mirani
A. Van Hoorenbeeck
Belgium
18 A. Van Hoorenbeeck
I. Mesík
Substitution
Slovakia
24 I. Mesík
T. Bruns
Substitution
Netherlands
10 T. Bruns
S. Scheperman
Netherlands
32 S. Scheperman
T. van Gilst
Substitution
Netherlands
17 T. van Gilst
M. Engels
Germany
8 M. Engels
N. Ünüvar
Substitution
Netherlands
9 N. Ünüvar
L. Zeefuik
Netherlands
25 L. Zeefuik
M. Paes
Netherlands
26 M. Paes
L. Rosa
Brazil
2 L. Rosa
Y. Baas
Netherlands
15 Y. Baas
J. Šutalo
Croatia
37 J. Šutalo
A. Gaaei
Denmark
3 A. Gaaei
J. Mokio
Belgium
24 J. Mokio
K. Itakura
Substitution
Japan
4 K. Itakura
O. Gloukh
Substitution
Israel
10 O. Gloukh
M. Godts
Substitution
Belgium
11 M. Godts
W. Weghorst
Netherlands
25 W. Weghorst
S. Berghuis
Substitution
Netherlands
23 S. Berghuis

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 11, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Asito Stadion
Capacity
12500
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Martin van den Kerkhof
Richard Polman
Rob van de Ven
Wouter Wiersma

Statistics

Possession
HEA
43%
AJA
57%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 3
0 Big Chances Created 3
15 Shots 18
44 Dangerous attacks 45
40 Possession 60
7 Corners 5
4 Free kicks 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Injuries 1
70 Ball Safe 84
10 Goal Attempts 13
5 Substitutions 4
0 Hit Woodwork 3
10 Successful Dribbles 6
19 Dribble Attempts 23
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 26
12 Throwins 28
0 Assists 3
8 Goal Kicks 10
8 Successful Headers 11

Attacking

83 Attacks 90
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

21 Successful Long Passes 14
48 Long Passes 41
82 Successful Passes Percentage 87
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
304 Passes 495
250 Successful Passes 429
10 Key Passes 16

Defensive

5 Interceptions 7
3 Saves 3
26 Tackles 29

Build-up

32 Total Crosses 9
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

10 Fouls 4
1 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Martin van den Kerkhof

Starting XI ▼

22
Remko Pasveer
Remko Pasveer Goalkeeper
3
Jannes Wieckhoff
Jannes Wieckhoff Defender
5
Djevencio van der Kust
Djevencio van der Kust
Defender55'
4
Damon Mirani
Damon Mirani Defender
18
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck Defender
24
Ivan Mesik
Ivan Mesik Defender
73
Walid Ould-Chikh
Walid Ould-Chikh
Midfielder65'
8
Mario Engels
Mario Engels Midfielder
9
Naci Ünüvar
Naci Ünüvar Midfielder
19
Luka Kulenovic
Luka Kulenovic
Attacker54'
10
Thomas Bruns
Thomas Bruns Midfielder
6
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Sava-Arangel Cestic
Defender46'
17
Tristan van Gilst
Tristan van Gilst Midfielder
14
Erik Ahlstrand
Erik Ahlstrand
Midfielder55'
32
Sem Scheperman
Sem Scheperman Midfielder
25
Lequincio Zeefuik
Lequincio Zeefuik Attacker
Referee : Martin van den Kerkhof

Starting XI ▼

26
Maarten Paes
Maarten Paes Goalkeeper
2
Lucas Rosa
Lucas Rosa Defender
3
Anton Gaaei
Anton Gaaei Defender
15
Youri Baas
Youri Baas Defender
37
Josip Sutalo
Josip Sutalo Defender
4
Ko Itakura
Ko Itakura Midfielder
32
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Defender66'
10
Oscar Gloukh
Oscar Gloukh Midfielder
48
Sean Steur
Sean Steur
Midfielder84'
24
Jorthy Mokio
Jorthy Mokio Midfielder
11
Mika Godts
Mika Godts Attacker
30
Aaron Bouwman
Aaron Bouwman
Defender87'
23
Steven Berghuis
Steven Berghuis Attacker
2
17
Oliver Edvardsen
Oliver Edvardsen
Attacker84'
25
Wout Weghorst
Wout Weghorst Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Aaron Bouwman → Mika Godts
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Oliver Edvardsen → Steven Berghuis
7th Substitution
84'
Event
Sean Steur → Oscar Gloukh
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
78'
Event
Takehiro Tomiyasu
Card adjusted
Event
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
76'
Event
Walid Ould-Chikh
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
74'
66'
Event
Takehiro Tomiyasu → Ko Itakura
6th Substitution
Event
Walid Ould-Chikh → Ivan Mesik
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Erik Ahlstrand → Tristan van Gilst
3rd Substitution
55'
Event
Djevencio van der Kust → Jannes Wieckhoff
4th Substitution
55'
Event
Luka Kulenovic → Naci Ünüvar
2nd Substitution
54'
47'
Event
Steven Berghuis
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Sava-Arangel Cestic → Thomas Bruns
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
17'
Event
Steven Berghuis
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
16'
Event
Mika Godts
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax won a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Erik Ahlstrand from Heracles Almelo shot with his left foot from the right side of the box.
90
Update Update
Damon Mirani from Heracles Almelo committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 6 minutes of added time.
90
Update Update
Sava-Arangel Cestic from Heracles Almelo misses a chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but the ball goes high and wide to the right. Alec Van Hoorenbeeck provided the assist.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Heracles Almelo after a concession by Maarten Paes.
90
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Sava-Arangel Cestic from Heracles Almelo takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the left corner by Maarten Paes from Ajax.
90
Attempt Attempt
Lequincio Zeefuik's left-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. Erik Ahlstrand provided the assist.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Damon Mirani of Heracles Almelo.
89
Update Update
Lucas Rosa from Ajax won a free kick in defense.
89
Corner Corner
Heracles Almelo wins a corner after Anton Gaaei concedes.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Aaron Bouwman replaces Mika Godts due to injury.
87
Attempt Attempt
Luka Kulenovic from Heracles Almelo missed a chance with a header from the center of the box.
87
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Mika Godts from Ajax.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Sean Steur replaces Oscar Gloukh.
84
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Sava-Arangel Cestic from Heracles Almelo shoots with his left foot from the left side of the box, but it goes high and wide to the left. The assist was provided by Mario Engels.
84
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Oliver Edvardsen replaces Steven Berghuis.
83
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Heracles Almelo after a concession by Youri Baas.
82
Corner Corner
Heracles Almelo win a corner after Lucas Rosa concedes.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Heracles Almelo after a concession by Youri Baas.
81
Attempt Attempt
Lequincio Zeefuik of Heracles Almelo has his right-footed shot from outside the box blocked.
78
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck of Heracles Almelo receives a yellow card.
76
Update Update
Lequincio Zeefuik of Heracles Almelo won a free kick in an attacking position.
76
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Takehiro Tomiyasu of Ajax receives a yellow card for a foul.
74
Corner Corner
Damon Mirani from Heracles Almelo misses a chance, shooting with his left foot from the center of the box, sending the ball high and wide to the left after a corner.
74
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Walid Ould-Chikh from Heracles Almelo receives a yellow card.
74
Update Update
Damon Mirani's header from the center of the box is blocked. The assist came from Erik Ahlstrand's cross.
74
Update Update
Sava-Arangel Cestic of Heracles Almelo committed a foul.
74
Update Update
Oscar Gloukh from Ajax won a free kick in defense.
73
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Heracles Almelo after a concession by Anton Gaaei.
72
Attempt Attempt
Walid Ould-Chikh from Heracles Almelo misses a chance with a right-footed shot from outside the box that goes high and wide to the right.
70
Attempt Attempt
Mika Godts from Ajax hits the woodwork with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box.
66
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Takehiro Tomiyasu replaces Ko Itakura.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Heracles Almelo: Walid Ould-Chikh replaces Ivan Mesík due to injury.
64
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Ivan Mesík from Heracles Almelo.
63
Attempt Attempt
Oscar Gloukh's right-footed shot from the left side of the box is blocked. The assist came from Steven Berghuis.
63
Attempt Attempt
Lequincio Zeefuik from Heracles Almelo had a missed chance, shooting with his right foot from outside the box, but it went very close to the goal. Sem Scheperman provided the assist after a fast break.
62
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Luka Kulenovic concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Remko Pasveer concedes.
61
Corner Corner
Wout Weghorst from Ajax makes an attacking attempt with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Remko Pasveer from Heracles Almelo saves it in the top left corner. The assist comes from Mika Godts.
60
Attempt Attempt
Jorthy Mokio of Ajax missed a header from the center of the box, sending the ball to the left. The assist came from Lucas Rosa's cross.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Heracles Almelo: Djevencio van der Kust replaces Jannes Wieckhoff.
55
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Heracles Almelo: Erik Ahlstrand replaces Tristan van Gilst.
54
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Heracles Almelo: Luka Kulenovic replaces Naci Ünüvar.
53
Corner Corner
New attacking attempt. Sava-Arangel Cestic of Heracles Almelo takes a right-footed shot from outside the box, but it's saved in the right corner by Maarten Paes of Ajax.
53
Attempt Attempt
Alec Van Hoorenbeeck of Heracles Almelo attempts a header from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but it's saved by Ajax goalkeeper Maarten Paes, who is positioned in the center of the goal. The assist comes from Damon Mirani.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Heracles Almelo after a concession by Anton Gaaei.
51
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Mesík of Heracles Almelo.
51
Update Update
Steven Berghuis from Ajax won a free kick in the attacking area.
50
Attempt Attempt
Mika Godts of Ajax has a shot from the left side of the box with his left foot, but it is blocked. Oscar Gloukh provided the assist.
49
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Mika Godts from Ajax.
47
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax scores, making it 3-0 against Heracles Almelo. Steven Berghuis finds the left corner with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Oscar Gloukh's through ball.
45
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Ivan Mesík concedes.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Heracles Almelo 0, Ajax 2.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Heracles Almelo 0, Ajax 2.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 1 minute of added time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Heracles Almelo: Sava-Arangel Cestic replaces Thomas Bruns.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Heracles Almelo 0, Ajax 2.
45
Update Update
Lucas Rosa of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
44
Update Update
Lequincio Zeefuik of Heracles Almelo commits a foul.
43
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Steven Berghuis of Ajax shot with his left foot from outside the box but missed to the left. Wout Weghorst provided the assist after a fast break.
41
Attempt Attempt
New attacking attempt. Oscar Gloukh from Ajax takes a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it's saved by Remko Pasveer, the goalkeeper for Heracles Almelo, with an assist from Wout Weghorst.
38
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Ko Itakura from Ajax had a right-footed shot from outside the box that was blocked. The assist came from Mika Godts.
37
Attempt Attempt
Jorthy Mokio from Ajax missed a chance with a left-footed shot from outside the box.
36
Update Update
Offside called against Ajax. Anton Gaaei is in an offside position.
35
Update Update
Mario Engels from Heracles Almelo won a free kick on the left wing.
35
Update Update
Mario Engels from Heracles Almelo won a free kick on the left wing.
34
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Steven Berghuis from Ajax shoots with his left foot from outside the box, but it's high and wide to the left. The assist came from Anton Gaaei's free kick.
34
Update Update
Lequincio Zeefuik from Heracles Almelo won a free kick in the attacking area.
34
Update Update
Foul committed by Anton Gaaei of Ajax.
33
Update Update
Mika Godts of Ajax won a free kick in an attacking position.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Thomas Bruns of Heracles Almelo.
30
Update Update
Offside called against Heracles Almelo. Mario Engels is offside.
27
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Tristan van Gilst concedes.
21
Update Update
There is a delay in the match due to an injury to Thomas Bruns from Heracles Almelo.
19
Update Update
Foul committed by Damon Mirani of Heracles Almelo.
19
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax won a free kick in defense.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax lead 2-0 with Steven Berghuis scoring from the center of the box into the right corner, assisted by Wout Weghorst.
16
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Ajax takes the lead 1-0 against Heracles Almelo. Mika Godts scores with a right-footed shot from the left side of the box into the top right corner, assisted by Jorthy Mokio.
15
Update Update
Offside called against Ajax. Steven Berghuis is offside.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Mario Engels of Heracles Almelo.
14
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax won a free kick on the right wing.
14
Update Update
Foul committed by Mario Engels of Heracles Almelo.
13
Update Update
Steven Berghuis from Ajax won a free kick in an attacking position.
13
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Mesík of Heracles Almelo.
10
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst of Ajax had a missed chance, heading the ball from the center of the box just close to the goal. The assist came from Lucas Rosa's cross.
8
Attempt Attempt
Missed chance. Jorthy Mokio from Ajax took a left-footed shot from the center of the box that went close but missed.
8
Attempt Attempt
Ivan Mesík from Heracles Almelo missed a chance with a header from the center of the box.
7
Attempt Attempt
Shot blocked. Naci Ünüvar from Heracles Almelo attempted a left-footed shot from inside the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Heracles Almelo after a concession by Anton Gaaei.
5
Attempt Attempt
Anton Gaaei's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. Oscar Gloukh provided the assist.
5
Corner Corner
Ajax wins a corner after Alec Van Hoorenbeeck concedes.
3
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorthy Mokio of Ajax.
3
Update Update
Sem Scheperman from Heracles Almelo won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Josip Sutalo of Ajax won a free kick in defense.
2
Update Update
Foul committed by Ivan Mesík of Heracles Almelo.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Ajax exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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