Hearts vs Falkirk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Tynecastle Park Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Premiership
Hearts Hearts
Versus
Falkirk Falkirk
KICKOFF : Wed, 13 May - 7:00 PM
Round 37 2nd Phase

CONTEXT

Hearts host Falkirk at Tynecastle Park in the 2nd Phase of the 2025/2026 Premiership season, a crucial league encounter. Sitting atop the table in 1st place, Hearts hold a commanding power score of 74.72 compared to Falkirk's 60.3, translating to a 14.4-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form scores further highlight the gap, with Hearts at 37.67 against Falkirk's 20.94, suggesting momentum favors the home side. As 6th-placed challengers, Falkirk face an uphill battle away from home. Limited data on set pieces, efficiency, and transitions means focus shifts to overall power and recent performances. Hearts' home venue adds another layer of dominance, potentially allowing them to control possession and exploit spaces. Falkirk must rely on disciplined defending and quick counters to compete. This matchup pits league leaders against mid-table opposition, with Hearts well-positioned to assert authority early.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Hearts lead the Premiership in 1st place with a 14.4-point power advantage over 6th-placed Falkirk.
  • Form: Hearts' form score of 37.67 significantly outpaces Falkirk's 20.94.
  • Squad: Hearts' higher power score of 74.72 reflects stronger squad quality versus Falkirk's 60.3.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available due to limited metrics.
  • Set pieces: Set piece data unavailable with low confidence and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xG data unavailable as add-on not enabled for either side.
  • Market: Projection split: Hearts 0% (Δ+0%) | Draw 0% (Δ+0%) | Falkirk 0% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hearts D. McInnes
D. McInnes
VS
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Motherwell Rank: 67 D
Rangers Rank: 77 W
Hibernian Rank: 68 W
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Livingston Rank: 55 D
Dundee Rank: 59 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Hibernian Rank: 68 D
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
Celtic Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Motherwell Rank: 67 W
St. Mirren Rank: 57 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 6 - 3
3
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hearts
0%
Draw
0%
Away Falkirk
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
74.72
60.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hearts
Falkirk
Power Score
74.72
60.3
League Position
1
6
Global Rank
122
316

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hearts — Opponent-weighted form score
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hearts Falkirk

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 19 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hearts Hearts Home
19 matches
Falkirk Falkirk Away
Match Record
10
Wins
3
6
Draws
6
3
Losses
10
Goals
30
Goals Scored
15
15
Goals Conceded
30
+15
Goal Difference
-15

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:53:33+00:00

General Information

Date & Time :
May 13, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland · Round 37 · 2nd Phase
Stadium :
Tynecastle Park
Capacity :
20099
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

1
Craig Gordon
Craig Gordon Goalkeeper
30
Ryan Fulton
Ryan Fulton Goalkeeper
25
Alexander Schwolow
Alexander Schwolow Goalkeeper
3
Stephen Kingsley
Stephen Kingsley Defender
2
Frankie Kent
Frankie Kent Defender
19
Stuart Findlay
Stuart Findlay Defender
5
Jamie Mccart
Jamie Mccart Defender
4
Craig Halkett
Craig Halkett Defender
18
Harry Milne
Harry Milne Defender
12
Christian Dahle Borchgrevink
Christian Dahle Borchgrevink Defender
15
Michael Steinwender
Michael Steinwender Defender
31
Oisin McEntee
Oisin McEntee Defender
23
Jordi Altena
Jordi Altena Defender
16
Blair Spittal
Blair Spittal Midfielder
6
Beni Baningime
Beni Baningime Midfielder
22
Tómas Bent Magnússon
Tómas Bent Magnússon Midfielder
14
Cameron Devlin
Cameron Devlin Midfielder
49
Marc Leonard
Marc Leonard Midfielder
8
Calem Nieuwenhof
Calem Nieuwenhof Midfielder
24
Finlay Pollock
Finlay Pollock Midfielder
40
Eduardo Ageu Almeida Santos
Eduardo Ageu Almeida Santos Midfielder
9
Lawrence Shankland
Lawrence Shankland Attacker
17
Alan Forrest
Alan Forrest Attacker
7
Elton Daniël Kabangu
Elton Daniël Kabangu Attacker
11
Pierre Landry Kabore
Pierre Landry Kabore Attacker
89
Alexandros Kiziridis
Alexandros Kiziridis Attacker
10
Cláudio Rafael Soares Braga
Cláudio Rafael Soares Braga Attacker
99
Islam Chesnokov
Islam Chesnokov Attacker
74
Rogers Mato
Rogers Mato Attacker
29
Sabah Kerjota
Sabah Kerjota Attacker

Squad ▼

19
Scott Bain
Scott Bain Goalkeeper
12
Jamie Sneddon
Jamie Sneddon Goalkeeper
1
Nicky Hogarth
Nicky Hogarth Goalkeeper
6
Coll Donaldson
Coll Donaldson Defender
42
Sam Hart
Sam Hart Defender
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Defender
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann Defender
15
Lewis Neilson
Lewis Neilson Defender
20
Connor Allan
Connor Allan Defender
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
2
Keelan Adams
Keelan Adams Defender
18
Gary Oliver
Gary Oliver Midfielder
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross Midfielder
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright Midfielder
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
7
Brian Graham
Brian Graham Attacker
9
Ross MacIver
Ross MacIver Attacker
30
Louie Marsh
Louie Marsh Attacker
27
Ben Parkinson
Ben Parkinson Attacker
24
Ethan Williams
Ethan Williams Attacker
22
Kyrell Wilson
Kyrell Wilson Attacker
11
Benjamin Tomaso Broggio
Benjamin Tomaso Broggio Attacker
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker

CONCLUSION

Hearts enter as clear favorites, leveraging their top-table position, superior power rating, and stronger form to dominate at Tynecastle Park. Falkirk's lower metrics across the board suggest struggles in maintaining parity, especially away. Without detailed efficiency or set piece insights, the focus remains on Hearts' ability to convert their 14.4-point edge into a convincing display. Expect the hosts to control tempo, press effectively, and capitalize on transitions. Falkirk needs standout individual efforts to counter. Overall, structural and form disparities point to a Hearts victory, solidifying their Premiership lead.

Hearts vs Falkirk preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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