Hartberg vs Sturm Graz Prediction, Preview and Stats

Austria flag 2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria
PROfertil ARENA Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Admiral Bundesliga
Hartberg HTB
Versus
Sturm Graz STU
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 3:00 PM
Round 9 Championship Round

CONTEXT

In the Admiral Bundesliga Championship Round at PROfertil ARENA, Hartberg hosts Sturm Graz in a matchup highlighting contrasting fortunes. Sturm Graz, entrenched in 2nd place, wields a power score of 68.98 against Hartberg's 59.53, securing a decisive 9.5-point advantage that underscores their structural superiority. Form scores further tilt the scales, with Sturm Graz at 20.72 compared to Hartberg's modest 13, signaling sustained momentum for the visitors. Hartberg clings to 6th position, relying on home advantage to counter this disparity, but lacks recent outing details to refine preparations. Set piece data remains elusive, marked by low confidence and proxy metrics for both teams, rendering dead-ball situations a wildcard. Absent efficiency insights, the focus shifts to open-play dynamics where Sturm Graz's higher ratings suggest control. Hartberg must tighten defensively to withstand pressure, while Sturm aims to exploit transitions fluidly. This encounter tests resilience against refinement in the 2025/2026 season.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Sturm Graz holds a 9.5-point power advantage over Hartberg, indicating superior overall structure.
  • Form: Sturm Graz boasts a form score of 20.72, significantly higher than Hartberg's 13.
  • Squad: Hartberg ranks 6th and Sturm Graz 2nd in the league standings.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams in this fixture.
  • Transition: Sturm Graz's elevated power score points to stronger transition play capabilities.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with proxy data used for Hartberg and Sturm Graz.
  • xVariable: Sturm Graz's power score of 68.98 exceeds Hartberg's 59.53 by a wide margin.
  • Market: Hartberg 23.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 25.8% (Δ+0%) | Sturm Graz 50.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hartberg M. Schmid
M. Schmid
VS
Sturm Graz F. Ingolitsch
F. Ingolitsch
1.18
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.56
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Austria Wien Rank: 63 L
LASK Linz Rank: 66 L
SK Rapid Rank: 60 W
SK Rapid Rank: 60 D
Sturm Graz Rank: 69 D
Salzburg Rank: 69 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Salzburg Rank: 69 D
Austria Wien Rank: 63 D
LASK Linz Rank: 66 D
LASK Linz Rank: 65 D
Hartberg Rank: 60 D
SK Rapid Rank: 60 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 5 - 12
12
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hartberg
23.47%
Draw
25.75%
Away Sturm Graz
50.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
59.53
68.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hartberg
Sturm Graz
Power Score
59.53
68.98
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
513
233

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hartberg — Opponent-weighted form score
Sturm Graz — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hartberg Sturm Graz

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 21 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hartberg HTB Home
21 matches
Sturm Graz STU Away
Match Record
4
Wins
12
5
Draws
5
12
Losses
4
Goals
22
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
22
-10
Goal Difference
+10

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:49:28+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Pitch
T. Hülsmann
40 T. Hülsmann
J. Heil
28 J. Heil
K. Schopp
27 K. Schopp
L. Spendlhofer
19 L. Spendlhofer
L. Pazourek
2 L. Pazourek
M. Hennig
33 M. Hennig
B. Markuš
4 B. Markuš
F. Wilfinger
18 F. Wilfinger
C. Hoffmann
22 C. Hoffmann
T. Kainz
23 T. Kainz
L. Fridrikas
30 L. Fridrikas
D. Khudyakov
53 D. Khudyakov
E. Karic
17 E. Karic
J. Mitchell
2 J. Mitchell
A. Vallci
5 A. Vallci
J. Gazibegovic
22 J. Gazibegovic
J. Gorenc Stankovič
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič
R. Fosso
80 R. Fosso
G. Mamageishvili
15 G. Mamageishvili
J. Hödl
43 J. Hödl
S. Jatta
20 S. Jatta
M. Malone
77 M. Malone

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Admiral Bundesliga, Austria · Round 9 · Championship Round
Stadium :
PROfertil ARENA
Capacity :
4635
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Alain Sadikovski
Robert Steinacher
Thomas Kaplan
Philip Gadler

Expected Lineup

Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

40
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann
Tom Ritzy Hülsmann Goalkeeper
6.88
30
Lukas Fridrikas
Lukas Fridrikas Attacker
6.65
23
Tobias Kainz
Tobias Kainz Attacker
6.9
2
Luca Pazourek
Luca Pazourek Left Back
6.79
33
Maximilian Hennig
Maximilian Hennig Left Back
6.56
28
Jürgen Heil
Jürgen Heil Right Back
6.85
27
Konstantin Schopp
Konstantin Schopp Right Back
7
19
Lukas Spendlhofer
Lukas Spendlhofer Centre Back
7.07
4
Benjamin Markus
Benjamin Markus Central Midfield
6.77
18
Fabian Wilfinger
Fabian Wilfinger Central Midfield
7.04
22
Marco Hoffmann
Marco Hoffmann Central Midfield
6.59
Referee : Alain Sadikovski

Starting XI ▼

53
Daniil Khudyakov
Daniil Khudyakov Goalkeeper
7.04
77
Maurice Malone
Maurice Malone Attacker
6.75
20
Seedy Jatta
Seedy Jatta Attacker
6.62
2
Jeyland Mitchell
Jeyland Mitchell Left Back
7.02
22
Jusuf Gazibegovic
Jusuf Gazibegovic Right Back
6.93
5
Albert Vallci
Albert Vallci Right Back
7.13
17
Emir Karic
Emir Karic Left Back
6.93
4
Jon Gorenc Stankovic
Jon Gorenc Stankovic Defensive Midfield
6.99
43
Jacob Peter Hödl
Jacob Peter Hödl Central Midfield
6.55
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili Central Midfield
6.8
80
Ryan Fosso
Ryan Fosso Central Midfield
6.64

CONCLUSION

Sturm Graz enters as the clear frontrunner, armed with a superior power score, form, and league position that dwarf Hartberg's credentials. The 9.5-point edge highlights their quality across phases, from structure to potential transitions. Hartberg, 6th-placed and at home in PROfertil ARENA, draws strength from crowd support but faces an uphill battle without detailed efficiency or set piece edges. Low-confidence data leaves room for surprises, yet Sturm Graz's metrics suggest command in open play. Hartberg needs flawless organization to compete, while Sturm eyes a statement win in the Championship Round. Overall, visitor dominance shapes expectations for the 2025/2026 clash.

Hartberg vs Sturm Graz preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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