HamKam vs Brann Prediction, Preview and Stats

Norway flag 2026 Eliteserien, Norway
Briskeby Arena Mon, 6 Apr - 3:00 PM
Eliteserien
HamKam HamKam
1 Winner 5
Brann SKB
Full Time Mon, 6 Apr 3:00 PM
Round 3 Regular Season
M. Alassane Niang - 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Noah Holm - 32'
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson - 37'
Bård Finne - 59'
Markus Haaland - 80'
Kristian Eriksen - 86'

CONTEXT

The match between HamKam and Brann is officially finished, resulting in a commanding 5-1 full-time victory for the away side. Brann entered the fixture as the stronger team and clear pre-match favorites with a 51.9% market probability of winning, compared to HamKam's 23.5% and a 24.6% chance of a draw. The final result was entirely aligned with the pre-match market, though the sheer dominance of the scoreline represented a significant deviation favoring Brann. Brann controlled the game's tempo, securing a comfortable 2-0 lead by halftime and maintaining 55% possession overall compared to HamKam's 45%. While expected goals (xG) data is unavailable to evaluate whether the final outcome was consistent with underlying chance creation, the overall efficiency shift remained firmly in line with pre-match expectations. The match was played cleanly without the disruptive impact of any red cards for either side. Brann effectively utilized their possession advantage to systematically break down the hosts, cleanly validating the pre-match betting predictions and returning home with a decisive four-goal win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Brann showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Bashevkin
I. Bashevkin
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
R. Langseth
R. Langseth
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
J. Grundt
J. Grundt
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
S. Kringstad
S. Kringstad
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 13.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.97
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
HamKam T. Myhre
T. Myhre
VS
Brann F. Alexandersson
F. Alexandersson
2
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.11
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Bodø / Glimt Rank: 83 D
Viking Rank: 76 W
Brann Rank: 68 L
Haugesund Rank: 42 W
Viking Rank: 76 L
Sandefjord Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Tromsø Rank: 67 L
Kristiansund Rank: 54 L
HamKam Rank: 58 W
Molde Rank: 63 L
KFUM Rank: 57 D
Bryne Rank: 55 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 8
8

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home HamKam
23.54%
Draw
24.61%
Away Brann
51.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
58.23
67.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
HamKam
Brann
Power Score
58.23
67.89
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
524
238

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
HamKam — Opponent-weighted form score
Brann — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) HamKam Brann

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

HamKam

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Brann

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

HamKam ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
40.33
39.73
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.73
40.33
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
HamKam +0.06 Efficiency Index
vs
Brann -0.06 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
HamKam
Brann
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

HamKam ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Brann
Created Set-piece attacking threat
HamKam Brann
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
HamKam Brann
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
HamKam
Brann
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
HamKam
vs
Brann
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
HamKam Brann
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
HamKam 0.37
Brann 0.54
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
HamKam Brann
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
HamKam 0.14
Brann 0.02
HamKam
Brann
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 12 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

HamKam HamKam Home
12 matches
Brann SKB Away
Match Record
1
Wins
8
3
Draws
3
8
Losses
1
Goals
11
Goals Scored
20
20
Goals Conceded
11
-9
Goal Difference
+9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-07T00:04:12+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
M. Sandberg
Sweden
12 M. Sandberg
I. Hoffmann
United States
24 I. Hoffmann
M. Gjone
Norway
2 M. Gjone
F. Sjølstad
Norway
23 F. Sjølstad
E. Amundsen-Day
Norway
3 E. Amundsen-Day
A. Ekeroth
Sweden
5 A. Ekeroth
L. Mettler
Substitution
Switzerland
10 L. Mettler
W. Osnes-Ringen
Substitution
Norway
6 W. Osnes-Ringen
A. Baran Potur
Substitution
Norway
17 A. Baran Potur
J. Gonstad
Substitution
Norway
20 J. Gonstad
H. Udahl
Norway
19 H. Udahl
M. Dyngeland
Norway
1 M. Dyngeland
J. Soltvedt
Norway
17 J. Soltvedt
R. Holten
Substitution
Norway
43 R. Holten
F. Pallesen Knudsen
Norway
3 F. Pallesen Knudsen
D. De Roeve
Belgium
21 D. De Roeve
F. Horn Myhre
Norway
8 F. Horn Myhre
J. Sørensen
Denmark
18 J. Sørensen
K. Ingason
Substitution
Iceland
10 K. Ingason
J. Thorsteinsson
Substitution
Iceland
7 J. Thorsteinsson
N. Holm
Substitution
Norway
29 N. Holm
B. Finne
Substitution
Norway
11 B. Finne

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 06, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2026 Eliteserien, Norway · Round 3 · Regular Season
Stadium
Briskeby Arena
Capacity
8068
Attendance
5165
Pitch Surface
Artificial turf
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Isaak Bashevkin
Runar Langseth
Johan William Grundt
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Statistics

Possession
HamKam
47%
SKB
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 5
4 Big Chances Created 4
5 Shots 9
43 Dangerous attacks 37
45 Possession 55
7 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

9 Goal Attempts 21
63 Ball Safe 69
11 Goal Kicks 8
16 Throwins 17
1 Assists 5
5 Successful Dribbles 1
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 10
4 Substitutions 5

Attacking

89 Attacks 95
0 Counter Attacks 3

Possession

86 Successful Passes Percentage 85
391 Passes 480
337 Successful Passes 409
11 Key Passes 14

Defensive

34 Duels Won 41
12 Tackles 13
9 Interceptions 6
6 Saves 5

Build-up

22 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

11 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

12
M. Sandberg
M. Sandberg Goalkeeper
2
Martin Gjone
Martin Gjone Defender
3
Ethan Amundsen Day
Ethan Amundsen Day Defender
5
A. Ekeroth
A. Ekeroth Defender
23
F. Sjølstad
F. Sjølstad Defender
24
I. Hoffmann
I. Hoffmann Defender
6
William Osnes-Ringen
William Osnes-Ringen Midfielder
4
H. Opsahl
H. Opsahl
Defender58'
10
Loris Mettler
Loris Mettler Midfielder
18
G. Simenstad
G. Simenstad
Midfielder58'
17
A. Potur
A. Potur Midfielder
11
E. Gojani
E. Gojani
Midfielder75'
19
Henrik Udahl
Henrik Udahl Attacker
20
Julian Gonstad
Julian Gonstad Attacker
29
M. Alassane Niang
M. Alassane Niang
Attacker58'
Referee : Sigurd Smehus Kringstad

Starting XI ▼

1
Mathias Dyngeland
Mathias Dyngeland Goalkeeper
3
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen
Fredrik Pallesen Knudsen Defender
17
Joachim Soltvedt
Joachim Soltvedt Defender
21
Denzel De Roeve
Denzel De Roeve Defender
43
Rasmus Holten
Rasmus Holten Defender
23
Thore Pedersen
Thore Pedersen
Defender63'
8
Felix Horn Myhre
Felix Horn Myhre Midfielder
10
K. Ingason
K. Ingason Midfielder
16
Kristian Eriksen
Kristian Eriksen
Midfielder63'
18
Jacob Lungi Sørensen
Jacob Lungi Sørensen Midfielder
7
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson Attacker
32
Markus Haaland
Markus Haaland
Midfielder80'
11
Bård Finne
Bård Finne Attacker
14
Ulrik Mathisen
Ulrik Mathisen
Midfielder80'
29
Noah Holm
Noah Holm Attacker
25
Niklas Jensen Wassberg
Niklas Jensen Wassberg
Midfielder84'

Events

2ND-HALF
86'
Event
Kristian Eriksen
Header / 6th Goal
84'
Event
Niklas Jensen Wassberg → Noah Holm
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Ulrik Mathisen → Bård Finne
8th Substitution
80'
Event
Markus Haaland → Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
7th Substitution
80'
Event
Markus Haaland
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
Event
E. Gojani → A. Potur
6th Substitution
75'
Event
M. Alassane Niang
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
74'
63'
Event
Thore Pedersen → Rasmus Holten
5th Substitution
63'
Event
Kristian Eriksen → K. Ingason
4th Substitution
59'
Event
Bård Finne
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
H. Opsahl → William Osnes-Ringen
2nd Substitution
58'
Event
G. Simenstad → Loris Mettler
3rd Substitution
58'
Event
M. Alassane Niang → Julian Gonstad
1st Substitution
58'
1ST-HALF
Event
William Osnes-Ringen
1st Yellowcard
41'
37'
Event
Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Header / 2nd Goal
32'
Event
Noah Holm
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Brann exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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