Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Volksparkstadion Sun, 10 May - 1:30 PM
Bundesliga
Hamburger SV HSV
Versus
SC Freiburg SCF
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 1:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Hamburger SV welcome SC Freiburg to Volksparkstadion for a crucial Bundesliga regular season clash in the 2025/2026 campaign. The hosts languish in 12th place, grappling with inconsistency, while Freiburg hold a stronger 7th position, bolstered by a superior power score of 82.07 against HSV's 63.36, granting the visitors an 18.7-point edge. Recent form tilts decisively towards Freiburg, who boast a 16.44 rating compared to HSV's modest 9.78, suggesting momentum lies with the away side. Lacking detailed efficiency or set-piece metrics due to unavailable xG data, the matchup hinges on Freiburg's structural superiority and transitional prowess. HSV will rely on home advantage to disrupt Freiburg's rhythm, but the visitors' higher league standing and power metrics paint them as favorites in this encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: SC Freiburg hold a clear structural advantage with an 18.7-point power score lead over Hamburger SV.
  • Form: SC Freiburg enter with superior form at 16.44 compared to Hamburger SV's 9.78.
  • Squad: Hamburger SV sit 12th in the league while SC Freiburg occupy 7th place.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not available in current data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data unavailable due to lack of xG information for both sides.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable as xG data not enabled.
  • Market: Hamburger SV 33.9% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.1% (Δ+0%) | SC Freiburg 40% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Hamburger SV M. Polzin
M. Polzin
VS
SC Freiburg J. Schuster
J. Schuster
1.14
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.41
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 83 L
Werder Bremen Rank: 74 L
VfB Stuttgart Rank: 85 L
FC Augsburg Rank: 78 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 74 D
Borussia Dortmund Rank: 89 L
Heidenheim Rank: 71 W
FSV Mainz 05 Rank: 82 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
4
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
4 - 7 - 6
6
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Hamburger SV
33.88%
Draw
26.11%
Away SC Freiburg
40.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
63.36
82.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Hamburger SV
SC Freiburg
Power Score
63.36
82.07
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
96
48

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Hamburger SV — Opponent-weighted form score
SC Freiburg — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Hamburger SV SC Freiburg

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Hamburger SV HSV Home
17 matches
SC Freiburg SCF Away
Match Record
4
Wins
6
7
Draws
7
6
Losses
4
Goals
15
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
15
-1
Goal Difference
+1

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T01:05:35+00:00

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 01:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Volksparkstadion
Capacity :
57000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Squad

Squad ▼

1
Daniel Heuer Fernandes
Daniel Heuer Fernandes Goalkeeper
12
Sander Tangvik
Sander Tangvik Goalkeeper
40
Hannes Steffen Hermann
Hannes Steffen Hermann Goalkeeper
41
Fernando Dickes
Fernando Dickes Goalkeeper
25
Jordan Torunarigha
Jordan Torunarigha Defender
28
Miro Muheim
Miro Muheim Defender
3
Noah Katterbach
Noah Katterbach Defender
17
Warmed Omari
Warmed Omari Defender
16
Giorgi Gocholeishvili
Giorgi Gocholeishvili Defender
2
William Mikelbrencis
William Mikelbrencis Defender
8
Daniel Elfadli
Daniel Elfadli Defender
44
Luka Vušković
Luka Vušković Defender
43
Shafiq Bello Nandja
Shafiq Bello Nandja Defender
6
Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga
Albert-Mboyo Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
20
Fabio Daniel Ferreira Vieira
Fabio Daniel Ferreira Vieira Midfielder
21
Nicolai Remberg
Nicolai Remberg Midfielder
24
Nicolás Capaldo
Nicolás Capaldo Midfielder
23
Albert Grønbæk Erlykke
Albert Grønbæk Erlykke Midfielder
39
Omar Abdel Megeed
Omar Abdel Megeed Midfielder
15
Yussuf Yurary Poulsen
Yussuf Yurary Poulsen Attacker
18
Bakery Jatta
Bakery Jatta Attacker
9
Robert Nesta Glatzel
Robert Nesta Glatzel Attacker
7
Mamadou Jean-Luc Diarra Dompé
Mamadou Jean-Luc Diarra Dompé Attacker
14
Rayan Philippe
Rayan Philippe Attacker
11
Ransford Königsdörffer
Ransford Königsdörffer Attacker
27
Philip Otele
Philip Otele Attacker
19
Damion Downs
Damion Downs Attacker
45
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé
Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé Attacker
49
Otto Emerson Stange
Otto Emerson Stange Attacker
38
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit Attacker

Squad ▼

24
Jannik Huth
Jannik Huth Goalkeeper
21
Florian Müller
Florian Müller Goalkeeper
1
Noah Atubolu
Noah Atubolu Goalkeeper
28
Matthias Lukas Ginter
Matthias Lukas Ginter Defender
30
Christian Günter
Christian Günter Defender
17
Lukas Kübler
Lukas Kübler Defender
5
Anthony Jung
Anthony Jung Defender
3
Philipp Lienhart
Philipp Lienhart Defender
29
Philipp Treu
Philipp Treu Defender
33
Jordy Makengo
Jordy Makengo Defender
37
Max Rosenfelder
Max Rosenfelder Defender
43
Bruno Ifechukwu Ogbus
Bruno Ifechukwu Ogbus Defender
27
Nicolas Höfler
Nicolas Höfler Midfielder
8
Maximilian Eggestein
Maximilian Eggestein Midfielder
11
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh
Daniel-Kofi Kyereh Midfielder
6
Patrick Osterhage
Patrick Osterhage Midfielder
44
Johan Manzambi
Johan Manzambi Midfielder
32
Vincenzo Grifo
Vincenzo Grifo Attacker
26
Maximilian Philipp
Maximilian Philipp Attacker
9
Lucas Höler
Lucas Höler Attacker
19
Jan-Niklas Beste
Jan-Niklas Beste Attacker
31
Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic Attacker
14
Yuito Suzuki
Yuito Suzuki Attacker
7
Derry Lionel Scherhant
Derry Lionel Scherhant Attacker
22
Cyriaque Kalou Irié
Cyriaque Kalou Irié Attacker

CONCLUSION

Freiburg's elevated power rating and better form position them to exploit HSV's vulnerabilities at Volksparkstadion. While home support could fuel a resilient Hamburger SV display, the visitors' league standing and overall metrics suggest control in possession and key moments. Without set-piece edges clarified, expect Freiburg to edge a tight contest through superior execution. HSV must elevate defensively to counter Freiburg's threat, but structural gaps may prove decisive in this Bundesliga showdown.

Hamburger SV vs SC Freiburg preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

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