Gorica vs Slaven Koprivnica Prediction, Preview and Stats

Croatia flag 2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
ŠRC Velika Gorica Sat, 7 Mar - 2:00 PM
1. HNL
Gorica Gorica
2 – 2
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Domagoj Pavicic - 13', 76'
Goal
|
Goal
Tomislav Bozic - 55'
Josip Mitrovic - 74'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Gorica 2–2 Slaven Koprivnica. The match ended in a draw. Slaven Koprivnica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 42%–58%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Slaven Koprivnica showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Vukančić
I. Vukančić
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
K. Šarić
K. Šarić
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
M. Maloča
M. Maloča
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Čulina
A. Čulina
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.63
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.25
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Gorica M. Carević
M. Carević
VS
Slaven Koprivnica M. Gregurina
M. Gregurina
1.11
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.47
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Dinamo Zagreb Rank: L
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: L
Hajduk Split Rank: W
Varaždin Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Istra 1961 Rank: W
Vukovar Rank: D
Lokomotiva Zagreb Rank: W
Hajduk Split Rank: L
Varaždin Rank: L
Rijeka Rank: D
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 12
12

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Gorica
42.43%
Draw
30.22%
Away Slaven Koprivnica
27.35%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
36
46.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Gorica
Slaven Koprivnica
Power Score
36
46.67
League Position
8
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Gorica — Opponent-weighted form score
Slaven Koprivnica — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Gorica Slaven Koprivnica

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Gorica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Slaven Koprivnica

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
22.38
25.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.52
22.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Gorica -0.32 Efficiency Index
vs
Slaven Koprivnica +0.32 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Slaven Koprivnica
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Gorica ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Slaven Koprivnica
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Gorica Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Gorica Slaven Koprivnica
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Gorica
Slaven Koprivnica
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 22 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Gorica Gorica Home
22 matches
Slaven Koprivnica Slaven Koprivnica Away
Match Record
7
Wins
10
5
Draws
5
10
Losses
7
Goals
20
Goals Scored
32
32
Goals Conceded
20
-12
Goal Difference
+12
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:04:15+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 1. HNL, Croatia
Stadium
ŠRC Velika Gorica
Capacity
8000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Ivan Vukančić
Kruno Šarić
Marko Maloča
Ante Čulina

Statistics

Possession
Gorica
43%
Slaven Koprivnica
57%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 2
5 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 2
48 Dangerous attacks 56
42 Possession 58
3 Corners 5
15 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

6 Successful Dribbles 6
46 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
19 Throwins 35
13 Dribble Attempts 15
2 Assists 2
6 Goal Kicks 7
1 Hit Woodwork 1
2 Substitutions 4

Attacking

71 Attacks 85
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

239 Successful Passes 341
301 Passes 427
79 Successful Passes Percentage 80
5 Key Passes 10
67 Long Passes 77
29 Successful Long Passes 50
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 65

Defensive

14 Tackles 17
12 Interceptions 1
0 Saves 1

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 23
3 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

14 Fouls 15
3 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
90+3'
Event
Igor Lepinjica → Marko Dabro
6th Substitution
90+2'
Event
Osman Hadzikic
Time wasting / 6th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Leon Bošnjak → Filip Mažar
4th Substitution
84'
Event
Antonio Jakir → Ilija Nestorovski
5th Substitution
84'
Event
Ivan Cubelic
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Igor Lepinjica
8th Yellowcard
Event
Domagoj Pavicic
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
77'
Event
Domagoj Pavicic
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
76'
74'
Event
Josip Mitrovic
Header / 3rd Goal
70'
Event
Karlo Isasegi
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Théo Epailly → Luka Vrzic
2nd Substitution
68'
Event
Ante Erceg → Sule Wisdom Aondowase
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Luka Vrzic
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
64'
60'
Event
Ivan Cubelic → Alen Grgic
1st Substitution
55'
Event
Tomislav Bozic
Header / 2nd Goal
1ST-HALF
15'
Event
Filip Mažar
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
15'
Event
Mateusz Stolarski
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Domagoj Pavicic
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
13'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Slaven Koprivnica exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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