FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin Prediction, Preview and Stats

Germany flag 2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany
Mewa Arena Sun, 10 May - 5:30 PM
Bundesliga
FSV Mainz 05 M05
Versus
FC Union Berlin FCU
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 5:30 PM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

FSV Mainz 05 welcomes FC Union Berlin to the Mewa Arena for a crucial Bundesliga regular season clash in 2025/2026. Mainz enters as the stronger side, boasting a power score of 80.89 against Union's 73.65, translating to a 7.2-point advantage. Sitting 10th in the standings, the hosts have shown solid consistency, reflected in their superior form score of 24 compared to the visitors' dismal 3.33. This matchup pits a mid-table hopeful against a lower-ranked side grappling with inconsistencies. Mainz's home advantage at Mewa Arena could prove decisive, especially given their edge in overall power metrics. Union Berlin, languishing in 13th, faces an uphill battle to climb out of the relegation skirmish. Both teams lack recent outing details, but positional standings underscore Mainz's stability. With no knockout implications, focus remains on league points. Expect a tactical battle where Mainz's structural superiority might shine through disciplined play.

TL;DR

  • Structural: FSV Mainz 05 possesses a 7.2-point power advantage over FC Union Berlin with scores of 80.89 to 73.65.
  • Form: Mainz holds a dominant form score of 24 versus Union's 3.33.
  • Squad: Mainz occupies 10th place in the Bundesliga, ahead of 13th-placed Union Berlin.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for this fixture.
  • Transition: Transition metrics are not provided in the available data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats show low confidence with no xG data and proxy usage for both teams.
  • xVariable: xVariable information remains unspecified for the matchup.
  • Market: Baseline split: FSV Mainz 05 54.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 24.2% (Δ+0%) | FC Union Berlin 21.7% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
FSV Mainz 05 U. Fischer
U. Fischer
VS
FC Union Berlin M. Eta
M. Eta
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
St. Pauli Rank: 72 W
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
Borussia Mönchengladbach Rank: 75 D
SC Freiburg Rank: 82 L
TSG Hoffenheim Rank: 85 W
Eintracht Frankfurt Rank: 80 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Köln Rank: 75 D
RB Leipzig Rank: 87 L
VfL Wolfsburg Rank: 73 L
Heidenheim Rank: 73 L
St. Pauli Rank: 72 D
FC Bayern München Rank: 100 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 5 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FSV Mainz 05
54.06%
Draw
24.2%
Away FC Union Berlin
21.74%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
80.89
73.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FSV Mainz 05
FC Union Berlin
Power Score
80.89
73.65
League Position
10
13
Global Rank
56
137

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FSV Mainz 05 — Opponent-weighted form score
FC Union Berlin — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FSV Mainz 05 FC Union Berlin

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FSV Mainz 05 M05 Home
13 matches
FC Union Berlin FCU Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
5
Draws
5
7
Losses
1
Goals
13
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
13
-12
Goal Difference
+12

Data last updated: 2026-05-07T00:50:21+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
D. Batz
33 D. Batz
D. Vieira da Costa
21 D. Vieira da Costa
S. Posch
4 S. Posch
K. Potulski
48 K. Potulski
S. Widmer
30 S. Widmer
P. Nebel
8 P. Nebel
K. Sano
6 K. Sano
N. Amiri
10 N. Amiri
P. Mwene
2 P. Mwene
S. Becker
23 S. Becker
P. Tietz
20 P. Tietz
C. Klaus
25 C. Klaus
D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
4 D. Monteiro Pinto Leite
S. Nsoki
34 S. Nsoki
D. Doekhi
5 D. Doekhi
T. Rothe
15 T. Rothe
A. Kemlein
6 A. Kemlein
R. Khedira
8 R. Khedira
J. Juranović
18 J. Juranović
O. Burke
7 O. Burke
A. Schafer
13 A. Schafer
I. Ansah
10 I. Ansah

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Bundesliga, Germany · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Mewa Arena
Capacity :
34000
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees :
Florian Exner

Expected Lineup

Referee : Florian Exner

Starting XI ▼

33
Daniel Batz
Daniel Batz Goalkeeper
6.96
2
Grenddy Perozo
Grenddy Perozo Midfielder
6.68
30
Silvan Widmer
Silvan Widmer Midfielder
6.74
20
Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz Attacker
6.5
23
Sheraldo Becker
Sheraldo Becker Attacker
6.89
4
Stefan Posch
Stefan Posch Centre Back
6.87
8
Paul Nebel
Paul Nebel Central Midfield
6.9
48
Kacper Potulski
Kacper Potulski Left Back
6.9
6
Kaishu Sano
Kaishu Sano Central Midfield
6.97
10
Nadiem Amiri
Nadiem Amiri Central Midfield
7.38
21
Danny da Costa
Danny da Costa Right Back
6.8
Referee : Florian Exner

Starting XI ▼

25
Carl Klaus
Carl Klaus Goalkeeper
6.82
7
Oliver Burke
Oliver Burke Midfielder
6.72
13
András Schäfer
András Schäfer Midfielder
6.62
15
Tom Rothe
Tom Rothe Midfielder
6.58
18
Josip Juranovic
Josip Juranovic Midfielder
6.76
10
Ilyas Ansah
Ilyas Ansah Centre Forward
6.58
5
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi Right Back
6.88
6
Aljoscha Kemlein
Aljoscha Kemlein Central Midfield
6.67
8
Rani Khedira
Rani Khedira Central Midfield
6.71
34
Stanley Nsoki
Stanley Nsoki Centre Back
6.63
4
Diogo Leite
Diogo Leite Left Back
6.77

CONCLUSION

FSV Mainz 05 appears well-positioned to capitalize on their power and form edges against a faltering FC Union Berlin. The hosts' higher league standing and superior metrics suggest control from the outset at Mewa Arena. Union's poor form score signals vulnerability, potentially allowing Mainz to dictate tempo and secure vital points. Without standout set-piece or efficiency insights, the contest hinges on structural strengths. Mainz's 10th-place perch offers momentum, while Union's 13th spot breeds caution. This regular season encounter favors the home side's consistency in pursuit of climbing higher.

FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Union Berlin preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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