Frosinone vs Bari 1908 Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Benito Stirpe Wed, 18 Mar - 6:00 PM
Serie B
Frosinone FRO
2 Winner 1
Bari 1908 BAR
Full Time Wed, 18 Mar 6:00 PM
Seydou Fini - 8'
Niccolò Corrado - 53'
Goal
|
Goal
Emanuele Rao - 2'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Frosinone 2–1 Bari 1908. The result saw Frosinone take the points. Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Frosinone showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Frosinone 62.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 22.1% (Δ+0%) | Bari 1908 15.3% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Frosinone M. Alvini
M. Alvini
VS
Bari 1908 M. Longo
M. Longo
1.96
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Catanzaro Rank: 60 D
Empoli Rank: 55 D
Spezia Rank: 52 W
Avellino Rank: 52 W
Venezia Rank: 69 L
Virtus Entella Rank: 46 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Empoli Rank: 57 W
Sampdoria Rank: 54 W
Calcio Padova Rank: 48 D
Südtirol Rank: 55 L
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Mantova Rank: 52 L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 4 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Frosinone
62.65%
Draw
22.07%
Away Bari 1908
15.28%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
64.14
49.73
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Frosinone
Bari 1908
Power Score
64.14
49.73
League Position
3
16
Global Rank
323
736

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Frosinone — Opponent-weighted form score
Bari 1908 — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Frosinone Bari 1908

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Frosinone

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Bari 1908

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
51.23
16.03
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
16.03
51.23
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Frosinone +3.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Bari 1908 -3.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Bari 1908
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Frosinone ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Bari 1908
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Frosinone Bari 1908
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Frosinone Bari 1908
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Frosinone
Bari 1908
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Frosinone FRO Home
17 matches
Bari 1908 BAR Away
Match Record
6
Wins
7
4
Draws
4
7
Losses
6
Goals
20
Goals Scored
24
24
Goals Conceded
20
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-19T00:04:48+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
L. Palmisani
Italy
22 L. Palmisani
A. Oyono Omva Torque
France
20 A. Oyono Omva Torque
J. Gelli
Substitution
Italy
6 J. Gelli
G. Calvani
Italy
3 G. Calvani
N. Corrado
Substitution
Italy
19 N. Corrado
F. Gelli
Substitution
Italy
10 F. Gelli
G. Calò
Italy
14 G. Calò
M. Cichella
Italy
16 M. Cichella
S. Fini
Italy
40 S. Fini
A. Raimondo
Substitution
Italy
9 A. Raimondo
A. Fiori
Substitution
Italy
80 A. Fiori
M. Cerofolini
Italy
31 M. Cerofolini
A. Cistana
Italy
51 A. Cistana
C. Odenthal
Netherlands
26 C. Odenthal
R. Pucino
Italy
25 R. Pucino
E. Dorval
Substitution
France
93 E. Dorval
M. Braunöder
Austria
27 M. Braunöder
G. Maggiore
Substitution
Italy
18 G. Maggiore
B. Manè
Substitution
Italy
30 B. Manè
E. Rao
Substitution
Italy
17 E. Rao
T. Pontes Esteves
Substitution
Portugal
19 T. Pontes Esteves
G. Moncini
Italy
11 G. Moncini

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 18, 2026, 06:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Benito Stirpe
Capacity
16227
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Fabio Maresca

Statistics

Possession
FRO
60%
BAR
40%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 2
85 Dangerous attacks 25
61 Possession 39
11 Corners 1
5 Free kicks 15
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

64 Ball Safe 88
16 Goal Attempts 3
9 Successful Dribbles 6
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 55
5 Substitutions 5
1 Injuries 0
3 Goal Kicks 17
2 Assists 1
19 Dribble Attempts 11
16 Throwins 25

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 2
112 Attacks 75

Possession

35 Successful Long Passes 17
70 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
21 Key Passes 3
89 Successful Passes Percentage 72
411 Successful Passes 226
464 Passes 315
50 Long Passes 55

Defensive

9 Tackles 18
1 Saves 8
9 Interceptions 2

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 3
33 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

3 Offsides 0
16 Fouls 5

Lineup

Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

22
Lorenzo Palmisani
Lorenzo Palmisani Goalkeeper
3
Gabriele Calvani
Gabriele Calvani Defender
6
Jacopo Gelli
Jacopo Gelli Defender
30
Ilario Monterisi
Ilario Monterisi
Defender64'
19
Niccolò Corrado
Niccolò Corrado Defender
79
Gabriele Bracaglia
Gabriele Bracaglia
Defender84'
20
Anthony Oyono
Anthony Oyono Defender
10
Francesco Gelli
Francesco Gelli Midfielder
8
Ilias Koutsoupias
Ilias Koutsoupias
Midfielder76'
14
Giacomo Calò
Giacomo Calò Midfielder
16
Matteo Cichella
Matteo Cichella Midfielder
9
Antonio Raimondo
Antonio Raimondo Attacker
90
Edoardo Vergani
Edoardo Vergani
Attacker84'
40
Seydou Fini
Seydou Fini Attacker
80
Antonio Fiori
Antonio Fiori Attacker
17
Giorgi Kvernadze
Giorgi Kvernadze
Attacker64'
Referee : Fabio Maresca

Starting XI ▼

31
Michele Cerofolini
Michele Cerofolini Goalkeeper
25
Raffaele Pucino
Raffaele Pucino Defender
26
Cas Odenthal
Cas Odenthal Defender
51
Andrea Cistana
Andrea Cistana Defender
18
Giulio Maggiore
Giulio Maggiore Midfielder
10
Nicola Bellomo
Nicola Bellomo
Midfielder72'
27
Matthias Braunöder
Matthias Braunöder Midfielder
30
Moussa Mané
Moussa Mané Midfielder
37
Giacomo Stabile
Giacomo Stabile
Defender83'
93
Mehdi Dorval
Mehdi Dorval Midfielder
66
Daouda Traore
Daouda Traore
Midfielder72'
11
Gabriele Moncini
Gabriele Moncini Attacker
17
Emanuele Rao
Emanuele Rao Attacker
49
Giacomo De Pieri
Giacomo De Pieri
Midfielder57'
19
Tomás Esteves
Tomás Esteves Attacker
9
Christian Gytkjaer
Christian Gytkjaer
Attacker83'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Giacomo De Pieri
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Gabriele Bracaglia → Niccolò Corrado
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Edoardo Vergani → Antonio Raimondo
10th Substitution
84'
83'
Event
Giacomo Stabile → Moussa Mané
8th Substitution
83'
Event
Christian Gytkjaer → Tomás Esteves
7th Substitution
Event
Gabriele Calvani
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
81'
Event
Ilias Koutsoupias → Francesco Gelli
6th Substitution
76'
72'
Event
Nicola Bellomo → Giulio Maggiore
4th Substitution
72'
Event
Daouda Traore → Mehdi Dorval
5th Substitution
Event
Giorgi Kvernadze → Antonio Fiori
2nd Substitution
64'
Event
Ilario Monterisi → Jacopo Gelli
3rd Substitution
64'
57'
Event
Giacomo De Pieri → Emanuele Rao
1st Substitution
Event
Niccolò Corrado
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
53'
51'
Event
Cas Odenthal
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
1ST-HALF
33'
Event
Mehdi Dorval
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Antonio Fiori
Simulation / 1st Yellowcard
29'
Event
Seydou Fini
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
8'
2'
Event
Emanuele Rao
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Frosinone exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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