FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Rostov Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Stade Municipal 1 Sun, 5 Apr - 11:00 AM
Premier League
FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod
0 Winner 1
Rostov FCR
Full Time Sun, 5 Apr 11:00 AM
Round 23 Regular Season
|
Goal
Ronaldo - 29'

CONTEXT

The match between FK Nizjni Novgorod and Rostov has finished, with Rostov securing a 1-0 away victory. The visitors took the lead in the first half, going into the break up 1-0, and effectively defended their narrow advantage until the final whistle. Possession was tightly contested throughout the 90 minutes, with FK Nizjni Novgorod holding 49% of the ball compared to Rostov's 51%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to evaluate if the 1-0 outcome aligned with the underlying chance quality. However, the data confirms that the overall efficiency shift was strictly in line with standard expectations. Furthermore, the match flow was unaffected by major disciplinary issues, as there were no red cards shown to either side. Heading into the fixture, pre-match probability markets were relatively flat. Despite the analytics flagging a significant deviation level specifically surrounding Rostov's performance, their eventual victory ultimately remained market-aligned given their baseline status as the stronger team. By successfully managing the narrow margin established in the first half, Rostov comfortably claimed the outright win on the road.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Rostov showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
S. Karasev
S. Karasev
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
A. Lunev
A. Lunev
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
M. Belokur
M. Belokur
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
M. Zaika
M. Zaika
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 22.72
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.79
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.54
FK Nizjni Novgorod A. Shpilevskiy
A. Shpilevskiy
VS
Rostov J. Alba Cabello
J. Alba Cabello
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: 76 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Sochi Rank: 48 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 W
Akron Rank: 54 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 59 L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 L
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 66 D
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 W
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 71 L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FK Nizjni Novgorod
0%
Draw
0%
Away Rostov
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
51.23
60.3
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rostov
Power Score
51.23
60.3
League Position
14
10
Global Rank
712
461

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FK Nizjni Novgorod — Opponent-weighted form score
Rostov — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FK Nizjni Novgorod Rostov

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Rostov

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
18.88
27.35
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.35
18.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FK Nizjni Novgorod -0.94 Efficiency Index
vs
Rostov +0.94 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rostov
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FK Nizjni Novgorod ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Rostov
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rostov
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rostov
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rostov
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
FK Nizjni Novgorod
vs
Rostov
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rostov
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.32
Rostov 0.19
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rostov
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
FK Nizjni Novgorod 0.02
Rostov 0.00
FK Nizjni Novgorod
Rostov
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FK Nizjni Novgorod FK Nizjni Novgorod Home
9 matches
Rostov FCR Away
Match Record
2
Wins
6
1
Draws
1
6
Losses
2
Goals
9
Goals Scored
16
16
Goals Conceded
9
-7
Goal Difference
+7
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:01:09+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
N. Medvedev
Russia
30 N. Medvedev
M. Shnaptsev
Russia
70 M. Shnaptsev
24
24
I. Kirsh
Substitution
Russia
4 I. Kirsh
S. Karič
Slovenia
25 S. Karič
L. Vešner Tičić
Substitution
Slovenia
29 L. Vešner Tičić
A. Opoku Sarfo
Ghana
6 A. Opoku Sarfo
E. Smelov
Substitution
Russia
17 E. Smelov
O. Olusegun
Nigeria
40 O. Olusegun
A. Balboa Camacho
Substitution
Uruguay
10 A. Balboa Camacho
D. Lesovoy
Substitution
Russia
88 D. Lesovoy
R. Yatimov
Tajikistan
1 R. Yatimov
D. Semenchuk
Russia
22 D. Semenchuk
D. Chistyakov
Substitution
Russia
78 D. Chistyakov
V. Melekhin
Russia
4 V. Melekhin
I. Vakhaniya
Russia
40 I. Vakhaniya
K. Kuchaev
Substitution
Russia
18 K. Kuchaev
A. Mironov
Russia
8 A. Mironov
K. Shchetinin
Substitution
Russia
10 K. Shchetinin
R. Soares dos Santos
Substitution
Brazil
7 R. Soares dos Santos
T. Suleymanov
Substitution
Russia
99 T. Suleymanov
E. Golenkov
Russia
69 E. Golenkov

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 05, 2026, 11:00 AM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 23 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stade Municipal 1
Capacity
17856
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Sergey Karasev
Aleksey Lunev
Maksim Belokur
Matvey Zaika

Statistics

Possession
FK Nizjni Novgorod
48%
FCR
52%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
0 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
25 Dangerous attacks 59
49 Possession 51
8 Corners 7
15 Free kicks 20
2 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

5 Substitutions 5
6 Goal Attempts 5
91 Ball Safe 70
3 Injuries 2
23 Throwins 24
6 Goal Kicks 7
16 Dribble Attempts 12
25 Successful Headers 29
31 Successful Dribbles Percentage 25
0 Assists 1
5 Successful Dribbles 3

Attacking

71 Attacks 104

Possession

24 Successful Long Passes 42
36 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
361 Passes 386
66 Long Passes 94
261 Successful Passes 273
72 Successful Passes Percentage 71

Defensive

60 Duels Won 63
12 Interceptions 8
16 Tackles 13
2 Saves 1

Build-up

14 Total Crosses 14
5 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

1 Offsides 2
17 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

30
Nikita Medvedev
Nikita Medvedev Goalkeeper
4
Ilya Kirsch
Ilya Kirsch Defender
77
Andrey Ivlev
Andrey Ivlev
Midfielder89'
24
Edgardo Fariña Defender
25
Sven Karič
Sven Karič Defender
70
Maksim Shnaptsev
Maksim Shnaptsev Defender
6
Alex Opoku Sarfo
Alex Opoku Sarfo Midfielder
17
E. Smelov
E. Smelov Midfielder
14
Matvey Urvantsev
Matvey Urvantsev
Attacker46'
29
Luka Tičić
Luka Tičić Midfielder
69
Artem Sidorenko
Artem Sidorenko
Midfielder85'
10
Adrián Balboa
Adrián Balboa Attacker
3
Yuriy Koledin
Yuriy Koledin
Defender46'
40
Olakunle Olusegun
Olakunle Olusegun Attacker
88
Daniil Lesovoy
Daniil Lesovoy Attacker
21
R. Cephas
R. Cephas
Attacker46'
Referee : Sergey Karasev

Starting XI ▼

1
Rustam Yatimov
Rustam Yatimov Goalkeeper
4
Viktor Melekhin
Viktor Melekhin Defender
22
David Semenchuk
David Semenchuk Defender
78
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Dmitriy Chistyakov Defender
67
German Ignatov
German Ignatov
Defender71'
7
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Midfielder
87
Andrey Langovich
Andrey Langovich
Defender61'
8
Aleksey Mironov
Aleksey Mironov Midfielder
10
Kirill Shchetinin
Kirill Shchetinin Midfielder
58
Daniil Shantaliy
Daniil Shantaliy
Midfielder71'
18
Konstantin Kuchaev
Konstantin Kuchaev Midfielder
9
Mohammad Mohebi
Mohammad Mohebi
Midfielder61'
40
Ilya Vakhania
Ilya Vakhania Midfielder
69
Egor Golenkov
Egor Golenkov Attacker
99
Timur Suleymanov
Timur Suleymanov Attacker
91
Anton Shamonin
Anton Shamonin
Attacker90+2'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Matvey Urvantsev
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+2'
Event
Anton Shamonin → Timur Suleymanov
10th Substitution
Event
Andrey Ivlev → Ilya Kirsch
9th Substitution
89'
86'
Event
Egor Golenkov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Artem Sidorenko → Luka Tičić
8th Substitution
85'
Event
Edgardo Fariña
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
79'
71'
Event
Daniil Shantaliy → Kirill Shchetinin
7th Substitution
71'
Event
German Ignatov → Dmitriy Chistyakov
6th Substitution
61'
Event
Mohammad Mohebi → Konstantin Kuchaev
5th Substitution
61'
Event
Andrey Langovich → Ronaldo
4th Substitution
55'
Event
Dmitriy Chistyakov
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Kirill Shchetinin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Yuriy Koledin → Adrián Balboa
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
R. Cephas → Daniil Lesovoy
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Matvey Urvantsev → E. Smelov
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
29'
Event
Ronaldo
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Rostov exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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