Fiorentina vs Genoa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Stadio Artemio Franchi Sun, 10 May - 1:00 PM
Serie A
Fiorentina FIO
Versus
Genoa GEN
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 1:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Fiorentina host Genoa at the Stadio Artemio Franchi in a Serie A regular season fixture during the 2025/2026 campaign. The Viola enter with a power score of 77.11, edging Genoa's 74.64 for a 2.5-point advantage, marking them as the stronger team overall. Form scores reinforce this, at 19.89 for Fiorentina versus 13.5 for the visitors, highlighting superior recent momentum for the hosts. Despite Genoa's higher league standing at 14th compared to Fiorentina's 16th in the domestic table, home advantage could prove pivotal in this mid-table tussle. No recent outing details are available, adding intrigue. Set piece metrics draw from low-confidence proxies with no xG data, limiting deeper analysis on dead-ball threats. Efficiency and transition insights remain absent, shifting emphasis to structural edges and form. This setup suggests a competitive battle where Fiorentina's metrics position them to dictate terms.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Fiorentina hold a 2.5-point power score advantage at 77.11 over Genoa's 74.64.
  • Form: Fiorentina's form score of 19.89 exceeds Genoa's 13.5.
  • Squad: Genoa occupy 14th place in the league table ahead of Fiorentina's 16th.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics are unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition play data is not available.
  • Set pieces: Set piece stats use low-confidence proxies with no xG data enabled.
  • xVariable: xG variables unavailable as add-on is not enabled.
  • Market: Fiorentina 45.1% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.1% (Δ+0%) | Genoa 26.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Fiorentina P. Vanoli
P. Vanoli
VS
Genoa D. De Rossi
D. De Rossi
1.33
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.38
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Roma Rank: 85 L
Sassuolo Rank: 74 D
Lecce Rank: 67 D
Lazio Rank: 80 W
Hellas Verona Rank: 64 W
Inter Rank: 91 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Atalanta Rank: 84 D
Como Rank: 82 L
Pisa Rank: 64 W
Sassuolo Rank: 74 W
Juventus Rank: 86 L
Udinese Rank: 76 L
15
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
15 - 17 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fiorentina
45.11%
Draw
28.14%
Away Genoa
26.75%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
77.11
74.64
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fiorentina
Genoa
Power Score
77.11
74.64
League Position
16
14
Global Rank
86
118

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fiorentina — Opponent-weighted form score
Genoa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fiorentina Genoa

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 36 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fiorentina FIO Home
36 matches
Genoa GEN Away
Match Record
15
Wins
4
17
Draws
17
4
Losses
15
Goals
57
Goals Scored
34
34
Goals Conceded
57
+23
Goal Difference
-23

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T01:05:13+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
D. de Gea Quintana
43 D. de Gea Quintana
D. Cordeiro dos Santos
2 D. Cordeiro dos Santos
M. Pongracic
5 M. Pongracic
L. Ranieri
6 L. Ranieri
R. Gosens
21 R. Gosens
M. Brescianini
4 M. Brescianini
N. Fagioli
44 N. Fagioli
C. Ndour
27 C. Ndour
J. Harrison
17 J. Harrison
A. Gudmundsson
10 A. Gudmundsson
M. Solomon
19 M. Solomon
J. Bijlow
16 J. Bijlow
J. Vásquez Ibarra
22 J. Vásquez Ibarra
L. Skiri Oestigaard
5 L. Skiri Oestigaard
A. Marcandalli
27 A. Marcandalli
M. Ellertsson
77 M. Ellertsson
M. Frendrup
32 M. Frendrup
A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
4 A. Amorim de Freitas Filho
S. Sabelli
20 S. Sabelli
V. Carvalho Oliveira
9 V. Carvalho Oliveira
J. Ekhator
21 J. Ekhator
L. Colombo
29 L. Colombo

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Stadio Artemio Franchi
Capacity :
43147
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

43
David de Gea
David de Gea Goalkeeper
6.8
10
Albert Gudmundsson
Albert Gudmundsson Centre Forward
6.87
17
Jack Harrison
Jack Harrison Attacker
6.69
19
Manor Solomon
Manor Solomon Attacker
6.99
2
Dodô
Dodô Right Back
6.9
4
Marco Brescianini
Marco Brescianini Central Midfield
6.59
5
Marin Pongracic
Marin Pongracic Right Back
6.73
27
Cher Ndour
Cher Ndour Central Midfield
6.67
6
Luca Ranieri
Luca Ranieri Left Back
6.73
21
Robin Gosens
Robin Gosens Left Back
6.83
44
Nicolò Fagioli
Nicolò Fagioli Central Midfield
7.22

Starting XI ▼

16
Justin Bijlow
Justin Bijlow Goalkeeper
6.94
77
Mikael Egill Ellertsson
Mikael Egill Ellertsson Midfielder
6.58
9
Vitinha
Vitinha Midfielder
6.77
21
Jeff Ekhator
Jeff Ekhator Midfielder
6.62
20
Stefano Sabelli
Stefano Sabelli Midfielder
6.63
29
Lorenzo Colombo
Lorenzo Colombo Centre Forward
6.7
32
Morten Frendrup
Morten Frendrup Central Midfield
6.88
4
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho
Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho Central Midfield
6.72
5
Leo Østigård
Leo Østigård Centre Back
7.12
22
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez Left Back
6.86
27
Alessandro Marcandalli
Alessandro Marcandalli Right Back
6.58

CONCLUSION

Fiorentina's power and form edges provide a solid foundation at home against Genoa, despite the visitors' superior league position. The 2.5-point structural advantage and higher momentum score position the Viola to control proceedings at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Lacking detailed efficiency, transition, or set piece breakdowns due to data limitations, the preview hinges on these core metrics favoring the hosts. Genoa's resolve in mid-table could spark resistance, but Fiorentina's overall profile suggests they hold the upper hand in this Serie A encounter. A tight contest looms, with home strengths likely decisive.

Fiorentina vs Genoa preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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