Fenerbahçe vs Samsunspor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Sun, 8 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fenerbahçe FEN
3 Winner 2
Samsunspor Samsunspor
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 5:00 PM
Mattéo Guendouzi - 15'
Dorgeles Nene - 89'
Sidiki Chérif - 90+5'
Goal
|
Goal
Marius Mouandilmadji - 11', 23'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fenerbahçe 2–0 Samsunspor. The result saw Fenerbahçe take the points. Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 56%–44%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Çakır
O. Çakır
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
C. Elbil
C. Elbil
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
B. Kolak
B. Kolak
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
B. Gölen
B. Gölen
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 8.44
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.11
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.17
Fenerbahçe D. Tedesco
D. Tedesco
VS
Samsunspor T. Fink
T. Fink
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.21
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kocaelispor Rank: W
Göztepe Rank: D
Alanyaspor Rank: W
Eyüpspor Rank: W
Konyaspor Rank: W
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: L
Trabzonspor Rank: L
Kasımpaşa Rank: W
Kocaelispor Rank: D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: D
Göztepe Rank: L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 5 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
64.73%
Draw
20.78%
Away Samsunspor
14.49%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
76
42.67
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor
Power Score
76
42.67
League Position
2
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Samsunspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe Samsunspor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Samsunspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.13
32.16
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.16
28.13
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fenerbahçe -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Samsunspor +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Samsunspor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fenerbahçe Samsunspor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Samsunspor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fenerbahçe FEN Home
5 matches
Samsunspor Samsunspor Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
4
Draws
4
0
Losses
1
Goals
5
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
5
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:20:14+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity
50530
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oğuzhan Çakır
Candaş Elbil
Batuhan Kolak
Bilal Gölen

Statistics

Possession
FEN
53%
Samsunspor
47%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
2 Big Chances Created 2
8 Shots 9
35 Dangerous attacks 43
56 Possession 44
7 Corners 6
25 Free kicks 11
2 Yellow Cards 7

Match Overview

30 Throwins 22
11 Successful Headers 16
12 Successful Dribbles 4
7 Goal Kicks 10
48 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
25 Dribble Attempts 10
2 Assists 2
1 Hit Woodwork 0
13 Goal Attempts 13
79 Ball Safe 79
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

83 Attacks 98
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
45 Long Passes 65
358 Successful Passes 266
19 Successful Long Passes 32
439 Passes 354
82 Successful Passes Percentage 75
12 Key Passes 9

Defensive

13 Tackles 28
8 Interceptions 9
3 Saves 2

Build-up

24 Total Crosses 17
2 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

11 Fouls 22
0 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oğuz Aydın → Marco Asensio
10th Substitution
90+11'
90+9'
Event
Yalçın Kayan
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Mattéo Guendouzi
6th Yellowcard
90+6'
90+6'
Event
Antoine Makoumbou
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
90+6'
Event
Okan Kocuk
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
Event
Sidiki Chérif
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
90+5'
Event
Domenico Tedesco
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
90+1'
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
89'
89'
Event
Ali Badra Diabaté → Celil Yüksel
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Yalçın Kayan → Olivier Ntcham
8th Substitution
79'
Event
Cherif Ndiaye → Marius Mouandilmadji
7th Substitution
Event
Fred → N'Golo Kanté
5th Substitution
75'
Event
Dorgeles Nene → Kerem Aktürkoğlu
6th Substitution
75'
62'
Event
Rick van Drongelen
Persistent fouling / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Yiğit Efe Demir → Mert Müldür
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
İsmail Yüksek → Anthony Musaba
4th Substitution
61'
51'
Event
Toni Borevković
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
46'
Event
Toni Borevković → Yunus Emre Çift
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Elayis Tavsan → Joe Mendes
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ederson
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
45+3'
44'
Event
Joe Mendes
Time wasting / 2nd Yellowcard
23'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
16'
Event
Yunus Emre Çift
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Mattéo Guendouzi
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
15'
11'
Event
Marius Mouandilmadji
Header / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fenerbahçe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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