Fenerbahçe vs Gaziantep F.K. Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium Tue, 17 Mar - 5:00 PM
Super Lig
Fenerbahçe FEN
4 Winner 1
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K.
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 5:00 PM
Dorgeles Nene - 41', 68', 79'
N'Golo Kanté - 59'
Goal
|
Goal
Alexandru Maxim - 52' (P)

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Fenerbahçe 4–1 Gaziantep F.K.. The result saw Fenerbahçe take the points. Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 64%–36%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Fenerbahçe showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Fenerbahçe D. Tedesco
D. Tedesco
VS
Gaziantep F.K. B. Yılmaz
B. Yılmaz
2.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.14
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 66 W
Kocaelispor Rank: 67 W
Göztepe Rank: 75 D
Alanyaspor Rank: 70 W
Eyüpspor Rank: 66 W
Konyaspor Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Antalyaspor Rank: 60 W
Fatih Karagümrük Rank: 59 D
Samsunspor Rank: 70 D
Trabzonspor Rank: 78 L
Kocaelispor Rank: 67 L
Kasımpaşa Rank: 65 W
11
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
11 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Fenerbahçe
71.86%
Draw
16.43%
Away Gaziantep F.K.
11.71%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
83.82
65.81
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Fenerbahçe
Gaziantep F.K.
Power Score
83.82
65.81
League Position
2
9
Global Rank
36
272

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Fenerbahçe — Opponent-weighted form score
Gaziantep F.K. — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Fenerbahçe Gaziantep F.K.

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Fenerbahçe

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Gaziantep F.K.

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
32.50
34.44
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
34.44
32.50
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Fenerbahçe -0.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Gaziantep F.K. +0.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Gaziantep F.K.
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Fenerbahçe ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Gaziantep F.K.
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Fenerbahçe Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Fenerbahçe Gaziantep F.K.
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Fenerbahçe
Gaziantep F.K.
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 13 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Fenerbahçe FEN Home
13 matches
Gaziantep F.K. Gaziantep F.K. Away
Match Record
11
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
11
Goals
34
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
34
+21
Goal Difference
-21
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:02:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
E. Santana de Moraes
Brazil
31 E. Santana de Moraes
M. Mercan
Substitution
Germany
22 M. Mercan
Y. Demir
Turkey
14 Y. Demir
J. Oosterwolde
Netherlands
24 (C) J. Oosterwolde
A. Brown
England
3 A. Brown
M. Guendouzi Olié
Substitution
France
6 M. Guendouzi Olié
N. Kanté
France
17 N. Kanté
N. Dorgeles
Mali
45 N. Dorgeles
M. Asensio Willemsen
Substitution
Spain
21 M. Asensio Willemsen
A. Musaba
Substitution
Netherlands
20 A. Musaba
S. Cherif
Substitution
France
26 S. Cherif
M. Bozan
Turkey
71 M. Bozan
N. Mujakić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
5 N. Mujakić
M. Abena
Suriname
14 M. Abena
T. Sanuç
Turkey
23 T. Sanuç
Y. Kabadayı
Substitution
Germany
32 Y. Kabadayı
K. Gassama
Substitution
Gambia
17 K. Gassama
M. Kabasakal
Turkey
6 M. Kabasakal
K. Kozłowski
Poland
10 K. Kozłowski
L. Pérez Maqueda
Spain
2 L. Pérez Maqueda
A. Maxim
Romania
44 (C) A. Maxim
M. Bayo
Guinea
9 M. Bayo

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 17, 2026, 05:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium
Capacity
50530
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Kadir Sağlam
Süleyman Özay
Esat Sancaktar
Burak Demirkıran

Statistics

Possession
FEN
61%
Gaziantep F.K.
39%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
12 Shots 8
56 Dangerous attacks 28
64 Possession 36
11 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

0 Injuries 4
2 Goal Kicks 5
5 Successful Dribbles 7
5 Successful Headers 8
15 Throwins 15
75 Ball Safe 62
12 Goal Attempts 6
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
13 Dribble Attempts 14
1 Hit Woodwork 1
5 Substitutions 2
0 Penalties 1
3 Assists 0

Attacking

106 Attacks 60
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 81
504 Successful Passes 258
41 Long Passes 46
29 Successful Long Passes 21
71 Successful Long Passes Percentage 46
567 Passes 319
14 Key Passes 11

Defensive

9 Interceptions 8
16 Tackles 14
3 Saves 4

Build-up

4 Accurate Crosses 3
22 Total Crosses 13

Discipline

9 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Kadir Sağlam

Starting XI ▼

31
Ederson
Ederson Goalkeeper
6.77
3
Archie Brown
Archie Brown Defender
6.98
14
Yiğit Efe Demir
Yiğit Efe Demir Defender
7.23
22
Levent Mercan
Levent Mercan Defender
7.4
18
Mert Müldür
Mert Müldür
Defender46'
6.94
24
Jayden Oosterwolde
Jayden Oosterwolde (C) Defender
7.04
6
Mattéo Guendouzi
Mattéo Guendouzi Midfielder
7.72
7
Fred
Fred
Midfielder84'
6.5
17
N'Golo Kanté
N'Golo Kanté Midfielder
7.67
20
Anthony Musaba
Anthony Musaba Midfielder
6.73
9
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Kerem Aktürkoğlu
Attacker74'
6.68
21
Marco Asensio
Marco Asensio Midfielder
7.96
5
İsmail Yüksek
İsmail Yüksek
Midfielder84'
6.56
45
Dorgeles Nene
Dorgeles Nene Midfielder
3
9.15
26
Sidiki Chérif
Sidiki Chérif Attacker
6.56
94
Talisca
Talisca
Midfielder58'
6.47
Referee : Kadir Sağlam

Starting XI ▼

71
Burak Bozan
Burak Bozan Goalkeeper
5.72
5
Nihad Mujakic
Nihad Mujakic Defender
6.07
14
Myenty Abena
Myenty Abena Defender
6.36
23
Tayyip Talha Sanuç
Tayyip Talha Sanuç Defender
6.54
2
Luis Pérez
Luis Pérez Midfielder
6.5
6
Melih Kabasakal
Melih Kabasakal Midfielder
6.54
10
Kacper Kozlowski
Kacper Kozlowski Midfielder
6.82
17
Karamba Gassama
Karamba Gassama Midfielder
6.69
3
Drissa Camara
Drissa Camara
Midfielder74'
6.47
32
Yusuf Kabadayi
Yusuf Kabadayi Midfielder
5.78
8
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado
Midfielder87'
9
Mohamed Bayo
Mohamed Bayo Attacker
6.84
44
Alexandru Maxim
Alexandru Maxim (C) Attacker
8.07

Events

2ND-HALF
87'
Event
Victor Ntino-Emo Gidado → Yusuf Kabadayi
7th Substitution
Event
Fred → Mattéo Guendouzi
5th Substitution
84'
Event
İsmail Yüksek → Marco Asensio
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
79'
Event
Kerem Aktürkoğlu → Anthony Musaba
3rd Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Drissa Camara → Karamba Gassama
4th Substitution
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
68'
Event
D. Tedesco
Unsportsmanlike conduct / 2nd Yellowcard
65'
Event
N'Golo Kanté
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
59'
Event
Talisca → Sidiki Chérif
2nd Substitution
58'
52'
Event
Alexandru Maxim
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
51'
Event
Alexandru Maxim
Penalty awarded
Event
Mert Müldür → Levent Mercan
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
Event
Dorgeles Nene
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
41'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Fenerbahçe exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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