FC Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, Preview and Stats

Netherlands flag 2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Euroborg Sat, 7 Mar - 3:30 PM
Eredivisie
FC Groningen GRO
3 Winner 1
Ajax AJA
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:30 PM
Thom van Bergen - 6'
Oskar Zawada - 65', 72'
Goal
|
Goal
Davy Klaassen - 30'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. FC Groningen 3–1 Ajax. The result saw FC Groningen take the points. FC Groningen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: FC Groningen showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Serdar Gozubuyuk
Serdar Gozubuyuk
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
P. Inia
P. Inia
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
R. Honig
R. Honig
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
W. Wiersma
W. Wiersma
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 4.57
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.64
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.07
FC Groningen D. Lukkien
D. Lukkien
VS
Ajax F. Grim
F. Grim
1.19
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.76
0 i
Last 6 Opponents
FC Volendam Rank: L
FC Twente Rank: L
FC Utrecht Rank: L
PSV Rank: L
Sparta Rotterdam Rank: L
Fortuna Sittard Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Excelsior Rank: D
FC Volendam Rank: W
Go Ahead Eagles Rank: D
Telstar Rank: W
NEC Nijmegen Rank: D
Feyenoord Rank: W
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 5 - 29
29

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home FC Groningen
32.8%
Draw
25.66%
Away Ajax
41.54%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.59
56.41
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
FC Groningen
Ajax
Power Score
43.59
56.41
League Position
10
3
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
FC Groningen — Opponent-weighted form score
Ajax — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) FC Groningen Ajax

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

FC Groningen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Ajax

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

FC Groningen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.38
26.00
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.00
38.38
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
FC Groningen +1.34 Efficiency Index
vs
Ajax -1.34 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
FC Groningen
Ajax
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

FC Groningen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Ajax
Created Set-piece attacking threat
FC Groningen Ajax
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
FC Groningen Ajax
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
FC Groningen
Ajax
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

FC Groningen GRO Home
9 matches
Ajax AJA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
7
1
Draws
1
7
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
25
25
Goals Conceded
9
-16
Goal Difference
+16
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:09:12+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 03:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Eredivisie, Netherlands
Stadium
Euroborg
Capacity
22525
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Serdar Gozubuyuk
Patrick Inia
Rogier Honig
Wouter Wiersma

Statistics

Possession
GRO
43%
AJA
57%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
6 Big Chances Created 4
4 Shots 6
47 Dangerous attacks 52
40 Possession 60
6 Corners 8
7 Free kicks 5
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

20 Throwins 17
13 Dribble Attempts 20
38 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
20 Successful Headers 21
3 Assists 1
5 Successful Dribbles 10
7 Goal Kicks 6
36 Ball Safe 31
1 Hit Woodwork 0
3 Goal Attempts 5
6 Substitutions 6

Attacking

112 Attacks 95
4 Big Chances Missed 3

Possession

11 Key Passes 10
375 Passes 555
59 Long Passes 76
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37
23 Successful Long Passes 28
73 Successful Passes Percentage 82
274 Successful Passes 455

Defensive

22 Tackles 11
4 Saves 3
8 Interceptions 15

Build-up

7 Total Crosses 25
1 Accurate Crosses 5

Discipline

5 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 2

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Thijmen Blokzijl
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+5'
90+4'
Event
Wout Weghorst
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
88'
Event
Takehiro Tomiyasu → Owen Wijndal
12th Substitution
88'
Event
Don-Angelo Konadu → Jorthy Mokio
11th Substitution
88'
Event
Kian Fitz-Jim → Sean Steur
10th Substitution
83'
Event
Maher Carrizo → Josip Sutalo
9th Substitution
Event
Wouter Prins → Marvin Peersman
8th Substitution
82'
Event
Rui Mendes → Oskar Zawada
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Oskar Zawada
Header / 4th Goal
72'
Event
Tika de Jonge → Travis Hernes
6th Substitution
69'
69'
Event
Rayane Bounida → Davy Klaassen
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Kasper Dolberg → Steven Berghuis
5th Substitution
Event
Oskar Zawada
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
65'
Event
Hidde Jurjus → Etienne Vaessen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Marco Rente → Tyrique Mercera
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Oskar Zawada → Brynjólfur Willumsson
3rd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
30'
Event
Davy Klaassen
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Thom van Bergen
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
6'

Match Commentary

90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Thijmen Blokzijl of FC Groningen has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: FC Groningen 3, Ajax 1.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Rayane Bounida from Ajax takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Hidde Jurjus of FC Groningen makes a great save, stopping the ball at the top center of the goal.
90
Update Update
Kasper Dolberg from Ajax earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
Thijmen Blokzijl from FC Groningen committed a foul.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wout Weghorst of Ajax has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Wout Weghorst committed a foul against Ajax.
90
Update Update
Dies Janse of FC Groningen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
89
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Rui Mendes from FC Groningen takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
89
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
89
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
89
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Groningen after Maarten Paes allowed the ball to go out.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Don-Angelo Konadu is coming on to replace Jorthy Mokio.
88
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Kian Fitz-Jim comes on to replace Sean Steur.
88
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Tika de Jonge from FC Groningen.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after a deflection off Dies Janse.
87
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Anton Gaaei from Ajax took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Mika Godts.
84
Attempt Attempt
Wouter Prins from FC Groningen strikes the crossbar with a left-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Maher Carrizo comes on to replace Josip Sutalo.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Wouter Prins replaces Marvin Peersman.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after a play that resulted in a deflection off Dies Janse.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after Marco Rente allowed the ball to go out.
80
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal was thwarted. Josip Sutalo from Ajax fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Jorthy Mokio, who set him up with a header.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after Tygo Land allowed the ball to go out.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after Tygo Land allowed the ball to go out.
78
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
78
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen.
77
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Rayane Bounida from Ajax takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Kasper Dolberg.
76
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Rui Mendes comes on to replace Oskar Zawada, who is leaving the pitch due to an injury.
74
Update Update
The pause has ended. The teams are set to resume play.
73
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Oskar Zawada from FC Groningen.
72
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Groningen takes a 3-1 lead against Ajax. Oskar Zawada scores with a header from the center of the penalty area, placing the ball into the bottom right corner. The assist came from Thijmen Blokzijl.
71
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Jorg Schreuders of FC Groningen attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from David van der Werff following a corner kick.
70
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Groningen after Jorthy Mokio allowed the ball to go out of play.
70
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marvin Peersman from FC Groningen took a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box, but it was blocked on the left side.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Groningen after a foul by Youri Baas.
70
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to FC Groningen after Josip Sutalo allowed the ball to go out.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Tika de Jonge comes on to replace Travis Hernes, who has been injured.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Kasper Dolberg comes on to replace Steven Berghuis.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Ajax: Rayane Bounida comes on to replace Davy Klaassen.
69
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
68
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Travis Hernes from FC Groningen.
67
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after Marco Rente allowed the ball to go out of play.
65
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Groningen takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Ajax. Oskar Zawada scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Marvin Peersman, who set him up with a header.
62
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sails high and to the right after the corner kick.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Groningen after a deflection off Owen Wijndal.
59
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Thijmen Blokzijl.
55
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Mika Godts of Ajax attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the left. The assist came from Owen Wijndal, who delivered a cross.
53
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Foul committed by Dies Janse of FC Groningen.
52
Update Update
Wout Weghorst from Ajax earned a free kick in the defensive zone.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen fires a right-footed shot from close range, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Oskar Zawada.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to FC Groningen after a play that resulted in a deflection off Jorthy Mokio.
48
Update Update
Oskar Zawada from FC Groningen committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Jorthy Mokio from Ajax has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. David van der Werff of FC Groningen attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Oskar Zawada.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between FC Groningen and Ajax.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
Tyrique Mercera from FC Groningen earned a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Steven Berghuis from Ajax committed a foul.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Marco Rente comes on to replace Tyrique Mercera.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at FC Groningen 1, Ajax 1.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Oskar Zawada is coming on to replace Brynjólfur Willumsson.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for FC Groningen: Hidde Jurjus comes on to replace Etienne Vaessen.
42
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as David van der Werff from FC Groningen takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Maarten Paes, the Ajax goalkeeper, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal. The assist came from Tygo Land.
39
Update Update
Youri Baas from Ajax committed a foul.
39
Update Update
Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen earned a free kick in an offensive position.
39
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Sean Steur from Ajax attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it narrowly went wide to the left. The assist came from Jorthy Mokio following a corner kick.
38
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after a play that resulted in a deflection off Etienne Vaessen.
38
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jorthy Mokio from Ajax takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's expertly stopped in the right corner by Etienne Vaessen of FC Groningen. The assist came from Mika Godts.
38
Update Update
Offside call against Ajax. Wout Weghorst has been flagged for being in an offside position.
36
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Owen Wijndal from Ajax takes a left-footed shot from within the six-yard box. However, Etienne Vaessen from FC Groningen makes a fantastic save, pushing the ball away to the left corner. The assist came from Wout Weghorst.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after a deflection off Etienne Vaessen.
32
Update Update
Steven Berghuis from Ajax was awarded a free kick on the right side of the field.
32
Update Update
Marvin Peersman from FC Groningen committed a foul.
30
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now FC Groningen 1, Ajax 1. Davy Klaassen scores for Ajax with a header from close range into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Anton Gaaei, who delivered a perfect cross.
27
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
27
Update Update
Offside called against Ajax. Mika Godts has been flagged for being in an offside position.
26
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Etienne Vaessen from FC Groningen.
25
Attempt Attempt
Wout Weghorst had a great opportunity for Ajax, firing a right-footed shot from the center of the box that just barely missed the target. The assist came from Mika Godts.
22
Update Update
Owen Wijndal from Ajax has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
22
Update Update
David van der Werff from FC Groningen committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Anton Gaaei from Ajax committed a foul.
21
Update Update
Marvin Peersman from FC Groningen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
20
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Ajax after a deflection off Dies Janse.
17
Update Update
Mika Godts from Ajax committed a foul.
17
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
17
Update Update
Tyrique Mercera of FC Groningen has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
16
Update Update
Match interruption - Ajax.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Anton Gaaei from Ajax fired a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Mika Godts.
6
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! FC Groningen takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Ajax. Thom van Bergen scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it perfectly into the right corner of the net. The assist came from Dies Janse, who delivered a precise through ball.
4
Update Update
Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Thom van Bergen from FC Groningen was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
1
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push from Ajax. Steven Berghuis takes a long-range shot with his left foot from the right side, but it's expertly stopped by the FC Groningen goalkeeper, Etienne Vaessen, who is positioned centrally in the goal.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: FC Groningen exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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