Everton vs Chelsea Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Hill Dickinson Stadium Sat, 21 Mar - 5:30 PM
Premier League
Everton EVE
3 Winner 0
Chelsea CHE
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Beto - 33', 62'
Iliman Ndiaye - 76'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has officially finished, with Everton securing a resounding 3-0 full-time victory over Chelsea. The hosts went into halftime with a narrow 1-0 lead before adding two more goals in the second half. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. The market originally favored Chelsea as the stronger team with a 41.8% probability of winning, while an Everton victory stood at just 30.4% and a draw at 27.9%. Ultimately, the final outcome did not align with the pre-match market odds. Despite seeing far less of the ball, Everton's tactical approach was highly effective. Chelsea dominated possession with 64% compared to Everton's 36%, but the home side created the better scoring opportunities. Everton registered 1.26 expected goals (xG) against Chelsea's 0.77. Because the hosts won the expected goals battle, the final result was entirely consistent with the underlying xG data. The match's overall efficiency shift remained in line with expected metrics. Furthermore, the game was played without major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. Everton simply capitalized on their attacking moments, overcoming a heavy possession deficit to deliver a decisive upset.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Everton showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Everton D. Moyes
D. Moyes
VS
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
1.43
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.44
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: 90 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 L
Fulham Rank: 87 W
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: 90 D
Leeds United Rank: 86 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Fulham Rank: 87 L
Manchester City Rank: 97 D
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Aston Villa Rank: 92 L
Newcastle United Rank: 90 D
Everton Rank: 89 W
12
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
12 - 18 - 31
31

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Everton
30.35%
Draw
27.87%
Away Chelsea
41.78%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
88.73
90.89
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Everton
Chelsea
Power Score
88.73
90.89
League Position
8
6
Global Rank
20
10

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Everton — Opponent-weighted form score
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Everton Chelsea

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Everton

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Everton ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Chelsea
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.11
23.75
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
23.75
31.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Everton +0.87 Efficiency Index
vs
Chelsea -0.87 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Everton
Chelsea
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Everton
vs
Chelsea
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Everton Chelsea
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Everton Chelsea
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Everton
Chelsea
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 61 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Everton EVE Home
61 matches
Chelsea CHE Away
Match Record
12
Wins
31
18
Draws
18
31
Losses
12
Goals
53
Goals Scored
95
95
Goals Conceded
53
-42
Goal Difference
+42
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:03+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
J. Pickford
England
1 J. Pickford
J. O´Brien
Republic of Ireland
15 J. O´Brien
J. Tarkowski
England
6 (C) J. Tarkowski
M. Keane
England
5 M. Keane
V. Mykolenko
Ukraine
16 V. Mykolenko
I. Gueye
Senegal
27 I. Gueye
J. Garner
England
37 J. Garner
D. McNeil
Substitution
England
7 D. McNeil
K. Dewsbury-Hall
Substitution
England
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall
I. Ndiaye
Substitution
Senegal
10 I. Ndiaye
N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
Substitution
Portugal
9 N. Bercique Gomes Betuncal
R. Lynch Sanchez
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
M. Cucurella
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
J. Hato
Netherlands
21 J. Hato
W. Fofana
France
29 W. Fofana
M. Gusto
Substitution
France
27 M. Gusto
M. Caicedo Corozo
Substitution
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
R. Lavia
Substitution
Belgium
45 R. Lavia
P. Lomba Neto
Substitution
Portugal
7 P. Lomba Neto
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 (C) E. Fernández
C. Palmer
England
10 C. Palmer
J. Junqueira de Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
20 J. Junqueira de Jesus

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Hill Dickinson Stadium
Capacity
52888
Attendance
52547
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Samuel Barrott
Tim Wood
Wade Smith
Tom Nield

Statistics

Possession
EVE
40%
CHE
60%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 2
9 Shots 9
24 Dangerous attacks 64
36 Possession 64
3 Corners 9
7 Free kicks 5
0 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

12 Successful Headers 13
12 Dribble Attempts 18
16 Throwins 15
7 Goal Attempts 6
8 Successful Dribbles 9
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
8 Goal Kicks 1
67 Ball Safe 79
3 Assists 0
1 Injuries 2
4 Substitutions 5
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

49 Attacks 117
1 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

318 Successful Passes 617
20 Successful Long Passes 15
392 Passes 690
81 Successful Passes Percentage 89
9 Key Passes 8
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
53 Long Passes 32

Defensive

4 Saves 5
7 Interceptions 7
22 Tackles 15
49 Duels Won 44

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 1
18 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

6 Fouls 7

Lineup

Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Jordan Pickford
Jordan Pickford Goalkeeper
7.65
5
Michael Keane
Michael Keane Defender
7.25
6
James Tarkowski
James Tarkowski (C) Defender
7.16
15
Jake O'Brien
Jake O'Brien Defender
6.64
16
Vitaliy Mykolenko
Vitaliy Mykolenko Defender
7.19
7
Dwight McNeil
Dwight McNeil Midfielder
6.77
32
Jarrad Branthwaite
Jarrad Branthwaite
Defender78'
6.42
10
Iliman Ndiaye
Iliman Ndiaye Midfielder
7.61
34
Merlin Röhl
Merlin Röhl
Midfielder89'
22
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Midfielder
7.03
42
Tim Iroegbunam
Tim Iroegbunam
Midfielder89'
27
Idrissa Gueye
Idrissa Gueye Midfielder
7.67
37
James Garner
James Garner Midfielder
7.74
9
Beto
Beto Attacker
2
8.21
11
Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry
Attacker81'
6.23
Referee : Samuel Barrott

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
6.57
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
6.35
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
6.62
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
6.85
49
Alejandro Garnacho
Alejandro Garnacho
Attacker46'
6.48
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6.63
7
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
6.56
41
Estêvão
Estêvão
Attacker70'
6.59
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández (C) Midfielder
6.93
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
6.58
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
6.73
4
Tosin Adarabioyo
Tosin Adarabioyo
Defender78'
6.75
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
6.84
17
Andrey Santos
Andrey Santos
Midfielder57'
6.3
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker
6.69
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap
Attacker78'
6.49

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tim Iroegbunam → Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall
8th Substitution
89'
Event
Merlin Röhl → Iliman Ndiaye
9th Substitution
89'
87'
Event
Wesley Fofana
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Thierno Barry → Beto
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Jarrad Branthwaite → Dwight McNeil
5th Substitution
78'
78'
Event
Tosin Adarabioyo → Moisés Caicedo
4th Substitution
78'
Event
Liam Delap → João Pedro
6th Substitution
Event
Iliman Ndiaye
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
76'
70'
Event
Estêvão → Pedro Neto
3rd Substitution
69'
Event
Alejandro Garnacho
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Beto
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
62'
57'
Event
Andrey Santos → Roméo Lavia
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Alejandro Garnacho → Malo Gusto
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Beto
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
33'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Liam Delap from Chelsea has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Enzo Fernández from Chelsea.
90
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
90
Update Update
Liam Delap from Chelsea earned a free kick in an offensive position.
90
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Tim Iroegbunam from Everton takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Everton defeating Chelsea by a score of 3-0.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Tim Iroegbunam replaces Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall.
89
Update Update
Marc Cucurella from Chelsea committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Iliman Ndiaye of Everton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Merlin Röhl replaces Iliman Ndiaye.
87
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wesley Fofana of Chelsea has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
87
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea committed a foul.
87
Update Update
Idrissa Gueye from Everton earned a free kick in the defensive area.
85
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Cole Palmer from Chelsea attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left.
85
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive move underway. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall from Everton takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's stopped by Chelsea's goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, who is positioned centrally. The assist came from Vitalii Mykolenko.
84
Update Update
Iliman Ndiaye from Everton committed a foul.
84
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Thierno Barry comes on to replace Beto.
80
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off James Garner.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Tosin Adarabioyo comes on to replace Moisés Caicedo.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Liam Delap comes on to replace João Pedro.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Everton: Jarrad Branthwaite comes on to replace Dwight McNeil.
76
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Everton leads Chelsea 3-0. Iliman Ndiaye scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
75
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Michael Keane.
72
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Iliman Ndiaye from Everton takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Robert Sánchez from Chelsea makes a save, catching it in the top center of the goal. The assist came from Dwight McNeil.
71
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Michael Keane allowed the ball to go out.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Estêvão comes on to replace Pedro Neto.
69
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
69
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Enzo Fernández from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it’s successfully stopped.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Jordan Pickford.
67
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea committed a foul.
67
Update Update
James Tarkowski from Everton earned a free kick in an offensive position.
62
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Everton leads Chelsea 2-0. Beto scores with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, finding the center of the net. The assist comes from Idrissa Gueye after a quick counterattack.
61
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Jordan Pickford.
61
Corner Corner
A new offensive play unfolds as Enzo Fernández from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but Jordan Pickford of Everton makes a save, deflecting the ball to the right corner.
58
Update Update
Jake O'Brien from Everton was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
58
Update Update
Marc Cucurella from Chelsea committed a foul.
57
Update Update
Michael Keane from Everton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
57
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea committed a foul.
55
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
55
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Robert Sánchez from Chelsea.
54
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall of Everton has been awarded a free kick on the left flank.
49
Update Update
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as James Tarkowski of Everton heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Chelsea's goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, makes a crucial save right in front of the goal. The chance was set up by a cross from Dwight McNeil.
48
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after Jorrel Hato allowed the ball to go out.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Everton leading Chelsea 1-0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Alejandro Garnacho replaces Malo Gusto.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with Everton leading Chelsea 1-0.
45
Update Update
Iliman Ndiaye from Everton has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Roméo Lavia from Chelsea committed a foul.
42
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after Robert Sánchez allowed the ball to go out of play.
41
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
40
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Beto from Everton.
37
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Roméo Lavia from Chelsea attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box but failed to score. The chance was set up by Enzo Fernández, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
36
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive push unfolds. Enzo Fernández from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Jordan Pickford of Everton makes a save, catching it in the upper center of the goal.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off James Tarkowski.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Jordan Pickford.
33
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Everton takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Chelsea. Beto finds the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the center of the box, placing it into the bottom right corner. The assist comes from James Garner, who delivered a perfectly timed through ball.
30
Attempt Attempt
Goal! Everton takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Chelsea. Beto scores for Everton with a right-footed shot from inside the penalty area.
29
Corner Corner
Wasted opportunity. Wesley Fofana from Chelsea attempted a header from the center of the box following a corner kick.
29
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off James Tarkowski.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Marc Cucurella from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it's blocked.
29
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Pedro Neto from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
27
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Dwight McNeil.
27
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. João Pedro from Chelsea takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Cole Palmer.
19
Update Update
Cole Palmer from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Vitalii Mykolenko from Everton committed a foul.
18
Update Update
The attempt on goal has been thwarted. James Tarkowski of Everton headed the ball from the center of the box, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Vitalii Mykolenko, who delivered a cross.
14
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. James Garner from Everton takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Beto.
10
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
James Tarkowski from Everton committed a foul.
10
Update Update
Beto from Everton committed a foul.
10
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push. Beto from Everton takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
10
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Everton after Wesley Fofana allowed the ball to go out.
6
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Marc Cucurella.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Everton exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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