Derby County vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Pride Park Stadium Sat, 7 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Derby County DRB
2 Winner 1
Sheffield Wednesday SHF
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Ben Brereton Díaz - 11'
Matt Clarke - 45'
Goal
|
Goal
Jerry Yates - 17'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Derby County 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday. The result saw Derby County take the points. Derby County showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 55%–45%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Derby County showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
O. Langford
O. Langford
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
S. Allison
S. Allison
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
C. Brown
C. Brown
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
N. Aspinall
N. Aspinall
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Derby County J. Eustace
J. Eustace
VS
Sheffield Wednesday H. Pedersen
H. Pedersen
1.63
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.43
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
Preston North End Rank: W
Wrexham Rank: L
Middlesbrough Rank: W
Leicester City Rank: L
Birmingham City Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Birmingham City Rank: L
Portsmouth Rank: L
Queens Park Rangers Rank: L
Preston North End Rank: L
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Hull City Rank: D
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 11 - 7
7

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Derby County
74.06%
Draw
17.93%
Away Sheffield Wednesday
8.01%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
50
-6.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Derby County
Sheffield Wednesday
Power Score
50
-6.48
League Position
7
24
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Derby County — Opponent-weighted form score
Sheffield Wednesday — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Derby County Sheffield Wednesday

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Derby County

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sheffield Wednesday

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Derby County ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sheffield Wednesday
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.45
19.89
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.89
28.45
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Derby County +0.81 Efficiency Index
vs
Sheffield Wednesday -0.81 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Derby County
Sheffield Wednesday
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Derby County ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sheffield Wednesday
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Derby County Sheffield Wednesday
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Derby County Sheffield Wednesday
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Derby County
Sheffield Wednesday
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 5 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Derby County DRB Home
5 matches
Sheffield Wednesday SHF Away
Match Record
1
Wins
3
1
Draws
1
3
Losses
1
Goals
9
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
9
-1
Goal Difference
+1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:07:33+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Pride Park Stadium
Capacity
33597
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Oliver Langford
Samuel Allison
Connor Brown
Natalie Aspinall

Statistics

Possession
DRB
55%
SHF
45%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
8 Shots 4
53 Dangerous attacks 39
55 Possession 45
6 Corners 2
11 Free kicks 7
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Throwins 23
12 Successful Headers 15
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 27
15 Dribble Attempts 15
2 Assists 1
8 Goal Kicks 8
6 Successful Dribbles 4
0 Injuries 2
63 Ball Safe 63
10 Goal Attempts 5
4 Substitutions 3

Attacking

92 Attacks 101
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

325 Successful Passes 247
404 Passes 320
56 Long Passes 44
80 Successful Passes Percentage 77
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 34
11 Key Passes 4
26 Successful Long Passes 15

Defensive

16 Tackles 16
14 Interceptions 12
2 Saves 2

Build-up

5 Accurate Crosses 3
18 Total Crosses 19

Discipline

7 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Oscar Fraulo → Bobby Clark
6th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Iké Ugbo → Sean Fusire
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Jarvis Thornton → Jerry Yates
5th Substitution
Event
Carlton Morris → Patrick Agyemang
4th Substitution
75'
Event
Jaydon Banel → Sammie Szmodics
2nd Substitution
74'
74'
Event
Joel Ndala → Charlie McNeill
3rd Substitution
Event
David Ozoh → Rhian Brewster
1st Substitution
62'
1ST-HALF
Event
Matt Clarke
Header / 3rd Goal
45'
37'
Event
Liam Palmer
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Ben Brereton Díaz
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
17'
Event
Jerry Yates
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Ben Brereton Díaz
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
11'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Tayo Adaramola of Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Derby County securing a 2-1 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Oscar Fraulo is coming on to replace Bobby Clark.
89
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Iké Ugbo is coming on to replace Sean Fusire.
85
Update Update
Joel Ndala from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick on the left flank.
85
Update Update
Lewis Travis committed a foul against Derby County.
84
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after a play that resulted in a foul by Liam Palmer.
84
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Bobby Clark from Derby County attempted a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it was successfully blocked. The assist came from Jaydon Banel.
83
Update Update
Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick in the defensive area.
83
Update Update
Jaydon Banel from Derby County committed a foul.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Jarvis Thornton comes on to replace Jerry Yates.
79
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Svante Ingelsson of Sheffield Wednesday attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
78
Update Update
David Ozoh from Derby County was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
78
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson of Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
78
Update Update
Joel Ndala from Sheffield Wednesday was awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
78
Update Update
Jaydon Banel from Derby County committed a foul.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Carlton Morris comes on to replace Patrick Agyemang.
75
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Lewis Travis from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is halted by Sheffield Wednesday's goalkeeper, Pierce Charles, who makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist comes from Ben Brereton.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: Jaydon Banel is coming on to replace Sam Szmodics.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Sheffield Wednesday: Joel Ndala replaces Charlie McNeill.
73
Update Update
Charlie McNeill from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
73
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
66
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive play is underway. Ben Brereton from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but the attempt is stopped by the goalkeeper.
64
Corner Corner
Opportunity missed! Matt Clarke of Derby County heads the ball from just a few meters out, but it's narrowly off target. The chance was set up by Joe Ward, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
63
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Liam Palmer allowed the ball to go out.
62
Attempt Attempt
A missed opportunity for Derby County as Patrick Agyemang takes a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Derby County: David Ozoh replaces Rhian Brewster.
60
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Jamal Lowe of Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it sails over the goal.
59
Update Update
Charlie McNeill from Sheffield Wednesday earned a free kick in the offensive zone.
59
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Travis - Derby County.
58
Corner Corner
Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a corner kick after Joe Ward allowed the ball to go out of play.
57
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Sheffield Wednesday after Dion Sanderson allowed the ball to go out of play.
53
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
53
Update Update
Lewis Travis from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
51
Update Update
Jamal Lowe from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
51
Update Update
Dion Sanderson from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County committed a foul.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Derby County leading Sheffield Wednesday by a score of 2-1.
45
Update Update
Sean Fusire from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Derby County leading Sheffield Wednesday 2-1.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Derby County 2, Sheffield Wednesday 1.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Derby County leading Sheffield Wednesday 2-1.
44
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be two minutes of stoppage time.
44
Corner Corner
Goal! Derby County takes the lead with a score of 2-1 against Sheffield Wednesday. Matt Clarke heads the ball into the bottom right corner from the center of the box. The assist comes from Joe Ward, who delivered a precise cross following a corner kick.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Sean Fusire allowed the ball to go out.
40
Update Update
Tayo Adaramola from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Jerry Yates from Sheffield Wednesday takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s expertly saved by Josh Vickers of Derby County, who keeps it out at the top center of the goal.
38
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County committed a foul.
37
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Joe Ward from Derby County takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
37
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
37
Update Update
Sam Szmodics from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
36
Update Update
Liam Palmer from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Liam Palmer allowed the ball to go out.
33
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday was awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Ben Brereton from Derby County has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
33
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday has been awarded a free kick in the attacking zone.
32
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Sean Fusire allowed the ball to go out.
31
Update Update
Jamal Lowe committed a foul against Sheffield Wednesday.
31
Update Update
Joe Ward from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
29
Update Update
Offside call against Derby County. Sam Szmodics is caught in an offside position.
25
Update Update
Jamal Lowe committed a foul against a player from Sheffield Wednesday.
25
Update Update
Dion Sanderson from Derby County earned a free kick in the defensive area.
24
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Rhian Brewster from Derby County attempted a header from just a few meters out, but it narrowly missed the target.
23
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ben Brereton from Derby County takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Rhian Brewster.
21
Update Update
Match is currently paused due to an injury to Gabriel Otegbayo from Sheffield Wednesday.
19
Update Update
Svante Ingelsson from Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Rhian Brewster from Derby County earned a free kick on the left side of the pitch.
19
Update Update
Bobby Clark from Derby County has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Jaden Heskey of Sheffield Wednesday committed a foul.
17
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Derby County 1, Sheffield Wednesday 1. Jerry Yates of Sheffield Wednesday scores with a header from close range, directing the ball into the top left corner. The assist came from Jamal Lowe, who delivered a precise cross.
16
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Sam Szmodics from Derby County attempted a right-footed shot from over 35 yards, but it sailed high and to the left of the goal. The assist came from Derry John Murkin.
14
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted! Ben Brereton of Derby County took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Rhian Brewster after a quick counterattack.
12
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Derby County after Dominic Iorfa allowed the ball to go out.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Derby County takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Sheffield Wednesday. Ben Brereton found the back of the net with a right-footed shot from the middle of the box, placing it right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Rhian Brewster, who set him up with a perfectly timed through ball.
10
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Charlie McNeill from Sheffield Wednesday takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Josh Vickers, the goalkeeper for Derby County, makes a save right in the middle of the goal.
8
Update Update
Offside call against Sheffield Wednesday. Liam Palmer has been caught offside.
4
Update Update
Patrick Agyemang from Derby County earned a free kick in an offensive position.
4
Update Update
Gabriel Otegbayo commits a foul for Sheffield Wednesday.
2
Update Update
Opportunity wasted! Dominic Iorfa of Sheffield Wednesday attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but failed to find the target. The cross was delivered by Svante Ingelsson.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Derby County exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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