Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
La Liga
Osasuna
OSA
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Deportivo Alavés and Osasuna has concluded, finishing in a hard-fought 2-2 draw. The two sides went into the halftime break evenly matched at 1-1 before trading additional goals in the second half. Pre-match expectations suggested an incredibly tight contest. The market implied a 35.3% probability of a home victory, a 34.5% chance for an away win, and just 30.2% for the draw. Because Osasuna was evaluated as the stronger squad overall, this draw registered as a significant deviation from expectations for the away side, meaning the final outcome ultimately did not align with the pre-match market. Possession was closely contested throughout the ninety minutes, with Osasuna holding a narrow 52% share of the ball compared to Deportivo Alavés's 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the result aligned with underlying chance creation. However, the teams' efficiency shift was deemed perfectly in line with standard performance metrics. A major turning point occurred in the second half when Osasuna was reduced to ten men. This away red card created a distinct red card distortion, forcing Osasuna into adjustments to successfully secure a point on the road.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Osasuna showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
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Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Team Power Ranking
i
76.08
78.41
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Deportivo Alavés
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Deportivo Alavés
⚠ Proxy
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Deportivo Alavés
Osasuna
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 20 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-06T00:06:17+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Deportivo Alavés
vs
Real Sociedad
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sat, 11 Apr - 12:00 PM
Venue: Away
Osasuna
vs
Real Betis
League: La Liga
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 12:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼















Substitutes ▼








Manager ▼
Starting XI ▼
















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Match Commentary