CSKA Moskva vs Dynamo Makhachkala Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
VEB Arena Sat, 21 Mar - 1:00 PM
Premier League
CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva
3 Winner 1
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 1:00 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Henrique Carmo - 15'
Matvey Kislyak - 21'
Tamerlan Musaev - 71'
Goal
|
Goal
Gamid Agalarov - 25'

CONTEXT

The match between CSKA Moskva and Dynamo Makhachkala has officially finished, with the home side securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. Heading into the fixture, CSKA Moskva was heavily favored as the stronger team. Their eventual win was entirely aligned with the pre-match market, even though the specific pre-market probability figures were unavailable (listed at zero across all outcomes). Notably, the data highlighted a significant deviation level of 100% for CSKA Moskva regarding their underlying performance expectations. On the pitch, CSKA Moskva dictated the tempo and controlled the ball, finishing with a dominant 65% possession compared to Dynamo Makhachkala's 35%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for both sides, making it impossible to determine if the narrow 1-0 outcome strictly aligned with the match's underlying chance creation. However, the overall scoring efficiency shift was evaluated to be completely in line with standard expectations. The flow of the game was not altered by any severe disciplinary issues, as the match concluded without a single red card being issued to either team. Ultimately, the contest played out exactly as the betting market anticipated, with the favored hosts comfortably taking the win.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: CSKA Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
CSKA Moskva M. Expósito Presseguer
M. Expósito Presseguer
VS
Dynamo Makhachkala V. Evseev
V. Evseev
1.62
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Baltika Kaliningrad Rank: 65 L
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 69 L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: 60 L
Krasnodar Rank: 77 L
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: 52 W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 55 L
Rubin Kazan Rank: 62 W
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 52 L
Sochi Rank: 49 D
Dinamo Moskva Rank: 71 L
3
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
3 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home CSKA Moskva
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dynamo Makhachkala
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
71.89
56.95
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
CSKA Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
Power Score
71.89
56.95
League Position
5
12
Global Rank
159
576

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
CSKA Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Dynamo Makhachkala — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) CSKA Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

CSKA Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dynamo Makhachkala

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.15
14.86
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
14.86
28.15
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
CSKA Moskva +1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Dynamo Makhachkala -1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

CSKA Moskva ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dynamo Makhachkala
Created Set-piece attacking threat
CSKA Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
CSKA Moskva Dynamo Makhachkala
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
CSKA Moskva
Dynamo Makhachkala
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

CSKA Moskva CSKA Moskva Home
3 matches
Dynamo Makhachkala Dynamo Makhachkala Away
Match Record
3
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
3
Goals
4
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
4
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:21:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
I. Akinfeev
Russia
35 (C) I. Akinfeev
M. Gajić
Serbia
22 M. Gajić
M. Lukun
Russia
90 M. Lukun
K. Danilov
Russia
79 K. Danilov
D. Krugovoi
Russia
3 D. Krugovoi
D. Barinov
Substitution
Russia
6 D. Barinov
M. Kislyak
Russia
31 M. Kislyak
H. Fabiano do Carmo
Substitution
37 H. Fabiano do Carmo
I. Oblyakov
Russia
10 I. Oblyakov
D. Kozlov
Substitution
Russia
18 D. Kozlov
L. Gondou
Substitution
Argentina
9 L. Gondou
D. Volk
Russia
27 D. Volk
J. Đapo
Substitution
Slovenia
71 J. Đapo
J. Tabidze
Georgia
5 J. Tabidze
A. Alarcón Mendoza
Colombia
24 A. Alarcón Mendoza
M. Azzi
Algeria
22 M. Azzi
E. Moubarik
Morocco
6 E. Moubarik
H. Eddine Mrezigue
Algeria
16 H. Eddine Mrezigue
T. Sundukov
Russia
77 T. Sundukov
M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
Substitution
Iran
10 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
N. Glushkov
Russia
47 (C) N. Glushkov
G. Agalarov
Substitution
Russia
25 G. Agalarov

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
VEB Arena
Capacity
30457
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Anton Frolov
Kirill Bolshakov
Egor Bolkhovitin
Igor Kaplenkov

Statistics

Possession
CSKA Moskva
61%
Dynamo Makhachkala
39%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
4 Shots 0
46 Dangerous attacks 44
65 Possession 35
9 Corners 6
15 Free kicks 11
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

18 Successful Headers 15
24 Throwins 34
8 Successful Dribbles 4
3 Assists 0
8 Goal Kicks 7
4 Substitutions 3
90 Ball Safe 77
8 Goal Attempts 3
1 Injuries 3
16 Dribble Attempts 8
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50

Attacking

102 Attacks 82

Possession

81 Successful Passes Percentage 65
46 Long Passes 66
21 Successful Long Passes 20
519 Passes 264
419 Successful Passes 171
46 Successful Long Passes Percentage 30

Defensive

15 Interceptions 13
0 Saves 1
13 Tackles 14

Build-up

8 Accurate Crosses 4
21 Total Crosses 22

Discipline

2 Offsides 3
9 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

35
Igor Akinfeev
Igor Akinfeev (C) Goalkeeper
5.89
3
Danil Krugovoy
Danil Krugovoy Defender
7.37
22
Milan Gajić
Milan Gajić Defender
6.63
79
Kirill Danilov
Kirill Danilov Defender
6.84
90
Matvey Lukin
Matvey Lukin Defender
6.93
6
Dmitri Barinov
Dmitri Barinov Midfielder
7.13
20
Matija Popović
Matija Popović
Midfielder63'
6.7
10
Ivan Oblyakov
Ivan Oblyakov Midfielder
8.11
18
Danila Kozlov
Danila Kozlov Midfielder
7.06
97
Maksim Voronov
Maksim Voronov
Attacker90+2'
31
Matvey Kislyak
Matvey Kislyak Midfielder
7.36
37
Henrique Carmo
Henrique Carmo Midfielder
7.71
2
Matheus Reis
Matheus Reis
Defender80'
6.51
9
Luciano Gondou
Luciano Gondou Attacker
6.72
11
Tamerlan Musaev
Tamerlan Musaev
Attacker63'
7.37
Referee : Anton Frolov

Starting XI ▼

27
David Volk
David Volk Goalkeeper
5.97
5
Jemal Tabidze
Jemal Tabidze Defender
6.4
22
Mohamed Azzi
Mohamed Azzi Defender
6.43
24
Andrés Alarcón
Andrés Alarcón Defender
6.53
71
Jan Dapo
Jan Dapo Defender
6.84
19
Kirill Zinovich
Kirill Zinovich
Midfielder70'
6.45
6
Mehdi Moubarik
Mehdi Moubarik Midfielder
6.68
10
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad Midfielder
6.24
70
Abdulla Ashurov
Abdulla Ashurov
Midfielder90'
16
Houssem Mrezigue
Houssem Mrezigue Midfielder
6.34
47
Nikita Glushkov
Nikita Glushkov (C) Midfielder
6.05
77
Temirkan Sundukov
Temirkan Sundukov Midfielder
6.18
25
Gamid Agalarov
Gamid Agalarov Attacker
7.23
11
Miro
Miro
Attacker63'
6.59

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Maksim Voronov → Danila Kozlov
7th Substitution
90+2'
90'
Event
Abdulla Ashurov → Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
6th Substitution
84'
Event
Nikita Glushkov
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Matheus Reis → Henrique Carmo
5th Substitution
80'
Event
Tamerlan Musaev
Header / 4th Goal
71'
70'
Event
Kirill Zinovich → Jan Dapo
4th Substitution
Event
Matija Popović → Dmitri Barinov
3rd Substitution
63'
Event
Tamerlan Musaev → Luciano Gondou
2nd Substitution
63'
63'
Event
Miro → Gamid Agalarov
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
25'
Event
Gamid Agalarov
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Matvey Kislyak
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
21'
Event
Henrique Carmo
Header / 1st Goal
15'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: CSKA Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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