Chelsea vs Port Vale Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 FA Cup, England
Stamford Bridge Sat, 4 Apr - 4:15 PM
FA Cup
Chelsea CHE
7 Winner 0
Port Vale PTV
Full Time Sat, 4 Apr 4:15 PM
Quarter Finals
Jorrel Hato - 2'
João Pedro - 25'
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel - 42' (Own Goal)
Tosin Adarabioyo - 57'
Andrey Santos - 69'
Estêvão - 82'
Alejandro Garnacho - 90+2' (P)
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Chelsea host Port Vale in FA Cup (Quarter-finals) at Stamford Bridge. Power ranking favours Chelsea by 25.2 points heading into this fixture. Chelsea's recent form reads W3 D0 L0 from 3 matches; Port Vale's form is W5 D0 L0 from 5 matches. In their last outing, Chelsea Win away against Wrexham. Port Vale last played at home versus Sunderland, finishing with a Win.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Chelsea hold a +25.2 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: Chelsea are in line with baseline; recent form is evenly matched.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: Chelsea show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Chelsea have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Chelsea carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Chelsea hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: Chelsea 89.8% (Δ+0.4%) | Draw 6.5% (Δ-0.7%) | Port Vale 3.7% (Δ+0.4%)
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
VS
Port Vale J. Brady
J. Brady
3
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
3
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wrexham Rank: 74 W
Hull City Rank: 71 W
Charlton Athletic Rank: 67 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
3 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sunderland Rank: 82 W
Bristol City Rank: 69 W
Fleetwood Town Rank: 61 W
Bristol Rovers Rank: 60 W
Maldon & Tiptree Rank: W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
89.76%
Draw
6.51%
Away Port Vale
3.73%

Movement

Changes since opening
Chelsea
+0.36%
Draw
-0.73%
Port Vale
+0.37%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
90.83
65.68
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Port Vale
Power Score
90.83
65.68
League Position
-
-
Global Rank
10
307

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Port Vale — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Port Vale

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Port Vale

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Port Vale
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.86
20.22
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
20.22
27.86
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Chelsea +0.64 Efficiency Index
vs
Port Vale -0.64 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Port Vale
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Port Vale
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Chelsea Port Vale
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Chelsea Port Vale
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Port Vale
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Chelsea
vs
Port Vale
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Chelsea Port Vale
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Chelsea 0.39
Port Vale 0.31
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Chelsea Port Vale
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Chelsea 0.00
Port Vale 0.12
Chelsea
Port Vale
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 0 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
0 matches
Port Vale PTV Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
0
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-04T18:00:43+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 5-3-2
Pitch
R. Lynch Sanchez
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
M. Gusto
Substitution
France
27 M. Gusto
W. Fofana
France
29 W. Fofana
O. Adarabioyo
England
4 O. Adarabioyo
J. Hato
Netherlands
21 J. Hato
R. Lavia
Substitution
Belgium
45 R. Lavia
A. Nascimento dos Santos
Brazil
17 A. Nascimento dos Santos
P. Lomba Neto
Substitution
Portugal
7 P. Lomba Neto
C. Palmer
Substitution
England
10 C. Palmer
E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
Brazil
41 E. Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves
J. Junqueira de Jesus
Substitution
Brazil
20 J. Junqueira de Jesus
J. Gauci
Australia
46 J. Gauci
L. Gordon
Substitution
Guyana
15 L. Gordon
C. Hall
England
5 C. Hall
C. Humphreys
England
25 C. Humphreys
K. John
Substitution
England
24 K. John
J. Gabriel
England
6 J. Gabriel
F. Ojo
Belgium
14 F. Ojo
R. Walters
England
12 R. Walters
B. Garrity
Substitution
England
8 B. Garrity
B. Waine
Substitution
New Zealand
19 B. Waine
M. Sherif
Substitution
Netherlands
21 M. Sherif

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 04, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 FA Cup, England · Quarter Finals
Stadium
Stamford Bridge
Capacity
40341
Attendance
38375
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Richard West
Steve Meredith
Andy Madley
Farai Hallam

Statistics

Possession
CHE
70%
PTV
30%

Top Statistics

7 Goals 0
11 Big Chances Created 0
11 Shots 0
53 Dangerous attacks 15
77 Possession 23
8 Corners 2
10 Free kicks 12
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Penalties 0
20 Dribble Attempts 8
63 Ball Safe 60
14 Goal Attempts 3
3 Goal Kicks 7
3 Assists 0
1 Injuries 0
19 Throwins 9
3 Hit Woodwork 0
7 Successful Dribbles 6
35 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

123 Attacks 75
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

702 Passes 211
650 Successful Passes 145
35 Long Passes 45
57 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
20 Successful Long Passes 14
93 Successful Passes Percentage 69
15 Key Passes 2

Defensive

43 Duels Won 52
7 Tackles 20
6 Interceptions 5
0 Saves 5

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 7
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

10 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
4
Tosin Adarabioyo
Tosin Adarabioyo Defender
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato Defender
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
34
Josh Acheampong
Josh Acheampong
Defender85'
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
7
Pedro Neto
Pedro Neto Midfielder
49
Alejandro Garnacho
Alejandro Garnacho
Attacker61'
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
14
Dário Essugo
Dário Essugo
Midfielder62'
17
Andrey Santos
Andrey Santos Midfielder
41
Estêvão
Estêvão Midfielder
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia Midfielder
76
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
Attacker78'
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap
Attacker61'
Referee : Farai Hallam

Starting XI ▼

46
Joe Gauci
Joe Gauci Goalkeeper
5
Connor Hall
Connor Hall Defender
6
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel Defender
15
Liam Gordon
Liam Gordon Defender
27
E. Campbell
E. Campbell
Defender65'
24
Kyle John
Kyle John Defender
35
Tyler Magloire
Tyler Magloire
Defender85'
25
C. Humphreys
C. Humphreys Defender
8
Ben Garrity
Ben Garrity Midfielder
11
E. Archer
E. Archer
Midfielder74'
12
Rhys Walters
Rhys Walters Midfielder
14
F. Ojo
F. Ojo Midfielder
19
Ben Waine
Ben Waine Attacker
33
George Hall
George Hall
Midfielder65'
21
Martin Sherif
Martin Sherif Attacker
45
Andre Gray
Andre Gray
Attacker65'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Alejandro Garnacho
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
90+2'
Event
Josh Acheampong → Malo Gusto
9th Substitution
85'
85'
Event
Tyler Magloire → Kyle John
10th Substitution
Event
Estêvão
Goal awarded
84'
Event
Estêvão
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
82'
Event
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen → Roméo Lavia
8th Substitution
78'
74'
Event
E. Archer → Ben Garrity
7th Substitution
Event
Andrey Santos
Header / 4th Goal
69'
65'
Event
George Hall → Ben Waine
6th Substitution
65'
Event
Andre Gray → Martin Sherif
5th Substitution
65'
Event
E. Campbell → Liam Gordon
4th Substitution
Event
Dário Essugo → Cole Palmer
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Alejandro Garnacho → Pedro Neto
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Liam Delap → João Pedro
1st Substitution
61'
Event
Tosin Adarabioyo
Header / 3rd Goal
57'
1ST-HALF
Event
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel
Right foot shot / 1st Own Goal
42'
33'
Event
Martin Sherif
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
33'
Event
Tripping / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
João Pedro
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
Event
Jorrel Hato
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
2'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Ethon Archer from Port Vale wins a free kick in the defensive half.
90
Update Update
Foul by Alejandro Garnacho against Chelsea.
90
Update Update
Chelsea are awarded a penalty after Alejandro Garnacho is fouled in the penalty area.
90
Update Update
Tyler Magloire of Port Vale concedes a penalty after a foul in the penalty area.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Josh Acheampong comes on for Malo Gusto.
85
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Tyler Magloire comes on for Kyle John.
84
Update Update
VAR decision confirms a goal for Chelsea, making it 6-0 against Port Vale. Estêvão scores.
82
Update Update
Chelsea is called offside as Estêvão is caught in an offside position.
82
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 6-0 against Port Vale. Estêvão scores for Chelsea with a right-footed shot from the right side of the six-yard box into the center of the goal. The goal is confirmed after a VAR review.
80
Corner Corner
Chelsea have been awarded a corner after Elijah Campbell conceded it.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Ryan Kavuma-McQueen comes on for Roméo Lavia.
77
Update Update
Dário Essugo from Chelsea wins a free kick in the attacking half.
77
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel of Port Vale.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by George Hall of Port Vale.
76
Update Update
Foul committed by George Hall of Port Vale.
75
Attempt Attempt
George Hall's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked.
75
Corner Corner
Port Vale wins a corner after Wesley Fofana concedes.
74
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Ethon Archer comes on for Ben Garrity.
72
Update Update
Estêvão is caught offside for Chelsea.
69
Attempt Attempt
Andrey Santos has a right-footed shot from outside the box blocked. Alejandro Garnacho provided the assist.
69
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 5-0 against Port Vale. Andrey Santos scores with a header from close range into the high center of the goal, assisted by Estêvão's cross after a corner.
69
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Cameron Humphreys concedes.
67
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Joe Gauci concedes.
66
Attempt Attempt
Estêvão from Chelsea hits the right post with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box, assisted by Dário Essugo after a fast break.
66
Attempt Attempt
Estêvão from Chelsea hits the woodwork with a left-footed shot from the right side of the box.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Andre Gray comes on for Martin Sherif.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: George Hall comes on for Ben Waine.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Port Vale: Elijah Campbell comes on for Liam Gordon.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Liam Gordon of Port Vale.
62
Update Update
Estêvão wins a free kick for Chelsea on the right wing.
62
Update Update
Foul committed by Liam Gordon of Port Vale.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Liam Delap comes on for João Pedro.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Alejandro Garnacho comes on for Pedro Neto.
61
Update Update
Estêvão wins a free kick for Chelsea on the right wing.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Dário Essugo comes on for Cole Palmer.
60
Attempt Attempt
Cole Palmer's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is blocked.
60
Corner Corner
Cole Palmer's left-footed shot from the right side of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Joe Gauci.
57
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Funso Ojo concedes.
57
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 4-0 against Port Vale. Tosin Adarabioyo scores with a header from the center of the box into the bottom right corner, assisted by Malo Gusto's cross after a corner.
56
Attempt Attempt
Attempt saved. Pedro Neto's left-footed shot from outside the box is saved in the center of the goal by Joe Gauci. Cole Palmer provided the assist.
56
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Connor Hall concedes.
56
Attempt Attempt
João Pedro's right-footed shot from a difficult angle on the right is blocked. Estêvão provided the assist with a through ball.
55
Update Update
Foul committed by Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel of Port Vale.
55
Update Update
Jorrel Hato of Chelsea wins a free kick in the defensive half.
54
Corner Corner
Chelsea wins a corner after Liam Gordon concedes.
51
Corner Corner
Attempt saved. Cole Palmer's left-footed shot from the center of the box is saved in the bottom left corner by Joe Gauci. The assist came from Estêvão.
50
Attempt Attempt
Estêvão from Chelsea hits the left post with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, assisted by Andrey Santos.
49
Update Update
Estêvão from Chelsea is caught offside.
48
Update Update
Foul committed by Kyle John of Port Vale.
48
Update Update
Andrey Santos from Chelsea wins a free kick in the defensive half.
47
Update Update
Foul by Pedro Neto against Chelsea.
47
Update Update
Funso Ojo from Port Vale wins a free kick on the left wing.
46
Update Update
Foul committed by Estêvão of Chelsea.
46
Update Update
Liam Gordon from Port Vale wins a free kick on the left wing.
45
Update Update
Foul committed by Rhys Walters of Port Vale.
45
Update Update
Roméo Lavia wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated there will be 2 minutes of added time.
45
Update Update
First half ends with Chelsea leading Port Vale 3-0.
45
Update Update
The first half ends with Chelsea leading Port Vale 3-0.
45
Update Update
The second half begins with the score at Chelsea 3, Port Vale 0.
42
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 3-0 against Port Vale as Cole Palmer scores with a left-footed shot from very close range into the top left corner.
42
Update Update
Own goal by Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel for Port Vale. The score is Chelsea 3, Port Vale 0.
40
Attempt Attempt
Roméo Lavia's right-footed shot from outside the box is blocked. The attempt was assisted by Andrey Santos.
37
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel from Port Vale wins a free kick on the right wing.
37
Update Update
Foul committed by Jorrel Hato of Chelsea.
37
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Roméo Lavia from Chelsea.
33
Update Update
Foul committed by Martin Sherif of Port Vale.
33
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Martin Sherif of Port Vale receives a yellow card for a foul.
33
Update Update
Wesley Fofana wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
31
Corner Corner
Port Vale wins a corner after Wesley Fofana concedes.
28
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Martin Sherif of Port Vale.
28
Update Update
The match is delayed due to an injury to Andrey Santos from Chelsea.
28
Update Update
Foul committed by Andrey Santos of Chelsea.
28
Update Update
Martin Sherif from Port Vale wins a free kick in the defensive half.
27
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Cameron Humphreys concedes.
26
Update Update
Foul by Ben Waine of Port Vale.
26
Update Update
Malo Gusto wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 2-0 against Port Vale. João Pedro scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the box into the bottom left corner, assisted by Pedro Neto.
21
Update Update
Connor Hall of Port Vale is caught offside.
20
Update Update
Foul committed by Roméo Lavia of Chelsea.
20
Update Update
Rhys Walters from Port Vale wins a free kick in the attacking half.
17
Update Update
Offside for Chelsea. João Pedro is flagged for offside.
16
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Connor Hall from Port Vale heads the ball from the left side of the box after a set piece situation.
15
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel from Port Vale wins a free kick on the right wing.
15
Update Update
Foul committed by Estêvão of Chelsea.
11
Attempt Attempt
Rhys Walters from Port Vale misses a right-footed shot from outside the box to the left, assisted by Martin Sherif.
9
Update Update
João Pedro wins a free kick for Chelsea in the defensive half.
9
Update Update
Foul committed by Cameron Humphreys of Port Vale.
8
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel from Port Vale wins a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Update Update
Foul by João Pedro against Chelsea.
8
Update Update
Cameron Humphreys from Port Vale is awarded a free kick in the defensive half.
8
Update Update
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel from Port Vale wins a free kick in the defensive half.
4
Attempt Attempt
Cole Palmer's right-footed shot from the center of the box is blocked. Malo Gusto provided the assist.
3
Attempt Attempt
Attempt missed. Liam Gordon of Port Vale takes a left-footed shot from outside the box, but it goes to the right.
2
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Chelsea lead 1-0 against Port Vale as Jorrel Hato scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box after a corner.
1
Corner Corner
Chelsea win a corner after Cameron Humphreys concedes.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the structural indicators point toward Chelsea holding the stronger pre-match profile. Power rankings give Chelsea a 25.2-point edge. Market probabilities are Chelsea 89.4%, draw 7.2%, and Port Vale 3.4%. That market view aligns with the structural profile. The balance of play should hinge on execution in transitions and set-piece phases.

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