Chelsea vs Newcastle United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stamford Bridge Sat, 14 Mar - 5:30 PM
Premier League
Chelsea CHE
0 Winner 1
Newcastle United NEW
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 5:30 PM
|
Goal
Anthony Gordon - 18'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Chelsea 0–1 Newcastle United. The result saw Newcastle United take the points. Newcastle United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 67%–33%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Newcastle United showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. West
R. West
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
T. Bramall
T. Bramall
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
P. Tierney
P. Tierney
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
S. Bennett
S. Bennett
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Chelsea L. Rosenior
L. Rosenior
VS
Newcastle United E. Howe
E. Howe
1.44
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.5
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Manchester City Rank: 98 D
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Aston Villa Rank: 94 L
Newcastle United Rank: 92 D
Everton Rank: 88 W
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 W
Burnley Rank: 81 W
Manchester United Rank: 91 L
Chelsea Rank: 94 D
Sunderland Rank: 82 L
Burnley Rank: 81 W
28
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
28 - 11 - 14
14

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Chelsea
54.36%
Draw
22.51%
Away Newcastle United
23.13%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
92
90.65
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Chelsea
Newcastle United
Power Score
92
90.65
League Position
6
9
Global Rank
8
10

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Chelsea — Opponent-weighted form score
Newcastle United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Chelsea Newcastle United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Chelsea

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Newcastle United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Chelsea ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Newcastle United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.88
26.36
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.36
38.88
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Chelsea +1.49 Efficiency Index
vs
Newcastle United -1.49 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Chelsea
Newcastle United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Chelsea
vs
Newcastle United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Chelsea Newcastle United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Chelsea Newcastle United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Chelsea
Newcastle United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Chelsea CHE Home
11 matches
Newcastle United NEW Away
Match Record
5
Wins
2
4
Draws
4
2
Losses
5
Goals
23
Goals Scored
10
10
Goals Conceded
23
+13
Goal Difference
-13
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:30:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Lynch Sanchez
Spain
1 R. Lynch Sanchez
M. Gusto
Substitution
France
27 M. Gusto
W. Fofana
Substitution
France
29 W. Fofana
T. Chalobah
England
23 T. Chalobah
M. Cucurella
Spain
3 M. Cucurella
R. James
England
24 (C) R. James
M. Caicedo Corozo
Substitution
Ecuador
25 M. Caicedo Corozo
C. Palmer
England
10 C. Palmer
E. Fernández
Argentina
8 E. Fernández
A. Garnacho
Argentina
49 A. Garnacho
J. Junqueira de Jesus
Brazil
20 J. Junqueira de Jesus
A. Ramsdale
England
32 A. Ramsdale
L. Hall
England
3 L. Hall
S. Botman
Netherlands
4 S. Botman
M. Thiaw
Germany
12 M. Thiaw
V. Livramento
England
21 V. Livramento
J. Ramsey
England
41 J. Ramsey
J. Willock
Substitution
England
28 J. Willock
H. Barnes
England
11 H. Barnes
N. Woltemade
Substitution
Germany
27 N. Woltemade
J. Murphy
Substitution
England
23 (C) J. Murphy
A. Gordon
England
10 A. Gordon

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Stadium
Stamford Bridge
Capacity
41841
Attendance
39587
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Richard West
Thomas Bramall
Paul Tierney
Simon Bennett

Statistics

Possession
CHE
64%
NEW
36%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 1
3 Shots 5
81 Dangerous attacks 34
67 Possession 33
8 Corners 1
10 Free kicks 9
2 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

0 Injuries 2
0 Assists 1
1 Hit Woodwork 1
33 Successful Dribbles Percentage 46
5 Goal Kicks 13
13 Successful Headers 16
15 Dribble Attempts 13
5 Successful Dribbles 6
74 Ball Safe 62
13 Goal Attempts 5
3 Substitutions 3
24 Throwins 17

Attacking

2 Big Chances Missed 0
123 Attacks 76

Possession

28 Long Passes 51
675 Passes 331
620 Successful Passes 259
17 Key Passes 7
17 Successful Long Passes 17
61 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
92 Successful Passes Percentage 78

Defensive

11 Tackles 16
41 Duels Won 47
4 Saves 3
9 Interceptions 7

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 2
28 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

9 Fouls 10

Lineup

Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

1
Robert Sánchez
Robert Sánchez Goalkeeper
7.07
3
Marc Cucurella
Marc Cucurella Defender
7.15
23
Trevoh Chalobah
Trevoh Chalobah Defender
6.83
27
Malo Gusto
Malo Gusto Defender
6.6
9
Liam Delap
Liam Delap
Attacker46'
6.79
29
Wesley Fofana
Wesley Fofana Defender
6.85
21
Jorrel Hato
Jorrel Hato
Defender82'
6.39
8
Enzo Fernández
Enzo Fernández Midfielder
7.56
10
Cole Palmer
Cole Palmer Midfielder
7.72
24
Reece James
Reece James (C) Midfielder
7.75
25
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo Midfielder
6.69
45
Roméo Lavia
Roméo Lavia
Midfielder61'
6.51
49
Alejandro Garnacho
Alejandro Garnacho Midfielder
7.14
20
João Pedro
João Pedro Attacker
6.83
Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

32
Aaron Ramsdale
Aaron Ramsdale Goalkeeper
7.18
3
Lewis Hall
Lewis Hall Defender
6.81
4
Sven Botman
Sven Botman Defender
7.42
12
Malick Thiaw
Malick Thiaw Defender
7.44
21
Tino Livramento
Tino Livramento Defender
6.36
11
Harvey Barnes
Harvey Barnes Midfielder
6.7
23
Jacob Murphy
Jacob Murphy (C) Midfielder
6.97
20
Anthony Elanga
Anthony Elanga
Attacker78'
6.58
27
Nick Woltemade
Nick Woltemade Midfielder
6.76
7
Joelinton
Joelinton
Midfielder67'
6.55
28
Joe Willock
Joe Willock Midfielder
7.23
33
Dan Burn
Dan Burn
Defender77'
6.71
41
Jacob Ramsey
Jacob Ramsey Midfielder
7.14
10
Anthony Gordon
Anthony Gordon Attacker
8.05

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Lewis Hall
Time wasting / 4th Yellowcard
84'
Event
Aaron Ramsdale
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jorrel Hato → Wesley Fofana
6th Substitution
82'
78'
Event
Anthony Elanga → Jacob Murphy
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Dan Burn → Joe Willock
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Joelinton → Nick Woltemade
3rd Substitution
Event
Roméo Lavia → Moisés Caicedo
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Liam Delap → Malo Gusto
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Moisés Caicedo
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
25'
Event
Wesley Fofana
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
23'
18'
Event
Anthony Gordon
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Attempt Attempt
Reece James from Chelsea strikes the right post with a right-footed shot taken from outside the penalty area following a free kick.
90
Update Update
Robert Sánchez from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 8 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Opportunity wasted. João Pedro of Chelsea attempted a header from the center of the box, coming agonizingly close to scoring. The assist came from Cole Palmer, who delivered a precise cross.
90
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Enzo Fernández of Chelsea fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist comes from Alejandro Garnacho.
90
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United.
90
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Joelinton commits a foul for Newcastle United.
90
Update Update
Cole Palmer from Chelsea earned a free kick in an attacking position.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Chelsea 0, Newcastle United 1.
90
Update Update
Reece James committed a foul for Chelsea.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Dan Burn allowed the ball to go out of play.
90
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
Marc Cucurella from Chelsea committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Roméo Lavia from Chelsea committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Harvey Barnes from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the left flank.
89
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card.
87
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Harvey Barnes allowed the ball to go out.
85
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Liam Delap - Chelsea - attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area.
84
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United earned a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aaron Ramsdale of Newcastle United has been shown a yellow card.
84
Update Update
Roméo Lavia from Chelsea committed a foul.
82
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved by Robert Sánchez, who positions himself well in the top center of the goal. The assist for this play comes from Jacob Ramsey.
82
Update Update
Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
82
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Jorrel Hato comes on to replace Wesley Fofana.
82
Update Update
Liam Delap from Chelsea committed a foul.
79
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Trevoh Chalobah of Chelsea attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box, but it went just wide. The chance was set up by a cross from Reece James following a corner kick.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Sven Botman allowed the ball to go out.
78
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Anthony Elanga replaces Jacob Murphy.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Dan Burn is coming on to replace Joe Willock, who has sustained an injury.
75
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Liam Delap of Chelsea attempted a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it went over the bar. The assist came from Marc Cucurella.
73
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
71
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Joe Willock from Newcastle United.
71
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Joe Willock from Newcastle United.
69
Update Update
Cole Palmer from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
69
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Robert Sánchez of Chelsea makes a save in the bottom right corner. The assist comes from Joe Willock.
69
Update Update
Harvey Barnes committed a foul against Newcastle United.
67
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. João Pedro from Chelsea takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Enzo Fernández.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Newcastle United: Joelinton comes on to replace Nick Woltemade.
62
Update Update
Nick Woltemade from Newcastle United committed a foul.
62
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Roméo Lavia comes on to replace Moisés Caicedo.
60
Attempt Attempt
The attempt on goal is thwarted. João Pedro from Chelsea takes a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Marc Cucurella, who set him up with a header.
60
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Malick Thiaw allowed the ball to go out.
60
Update Update
Lewis Hall from Newcastle United was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
60
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea committed a foul.
58
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Chelsea after Jacob Murphy allowed the ball to go out.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Marc Cucurella.
53
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea earned a free kick in the defensive area.
53
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
52
Update Update
Joe Willock from Newcastle United committed a foul.
51
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. João Pedro from Chelsea fires a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
49
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after a deflection off Malick Thiaw.
49
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Jacob Murphy from Newcastle United fires a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Jacob Ramsey.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the scoreline reading Chelsea 0, Newcastle United 1.
45
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Jacob Ramsey from Newcastle United takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Chelsea's goalkeeper, Robert Sánchez, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist comes from Harvey Barnes.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Liam Delap comes on to replace Malo Gusto.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Chelsea: Liam Delap is coming on to replace Malo Gusto.
45
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive effort underway. Liam Delap from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
45
Update Update
Reece James committed a foul for Chelsea.
40
Update Update
Reece James committed a foul for Chelsea.
39
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity goes begging! Reece James from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a free kick, but it's off target.
38
Update Update
Tino Livramento from Newcastle United committed a foul.
38
Update Update
Match interruption - Newcastle United.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
37
Update Update
Enzo Fernández from Chelsea earned a free kick in an offensive position.
37
Update Update
Tino Livramento from Newcastle United committed a foul.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Newcastle United after Robert Sánchez allowed the ball to go out.
34
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push! Cole Palmer from Chelsea takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's stopped by the goalkeeper.
30
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Cole Palmer from Chelsea fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. Alejandro Garnacho provided the assist.
25
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Moisés Caicedo of Chelsea has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
25
Update Update
Moisés Caicedo from Chelsea committed a foul.
25
Update Update
Nick Woltemade from Newcastle United has been awarded a free kick in an offensive position.
24
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United heads the ball from the center of the penalty area, but it sails over the crossbar. The assist came from Lewis Hall, who delivered a precise cross.
23
Update Update
Anthony Gordon from Newcastle United earned a free kick on the left flank.
23
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Wesley Fofana of Chelsea has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
23
Update Update
Wesley Fofana from Chelsea committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Tino Livramento from Newcastle United committed a foul.
22
Update Update
Marc Cucurella from Chelsea earned a free kick on the left flank.
21
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw of Newcastle United.
21
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Newcastle United takes the lead against Chelsea with a score of 1-0. Anthony Gordon scores with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area.
16
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Alejandro Garnacho of Chelsea attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
16
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area but it went wide. The assist came from Reece James.
14
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Cole Palmer from Chelsea took a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
13
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move is underway. Alejandro Garnacho from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's successfully stopped.
12
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Reece James from Chelsea takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sails over the bar.
11
Update Update
Foul committed by Malick Thiaw - Newcastle United.
11
Update Update
João Pedro from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Foul committed by Lewis Hall - Newcastle United.
10
Update Update
Malo Gusto from Chelsea has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Anthony Gordon allowed the ball to go out.
9
Corner Corner
Wasted opportunity! Wesley Fofana of Chelsea heads the ball from the center of the box, but it narrowly misses the target. The assist came from Reece James, who delivered a cross following a corner kick.
8
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Chelsea after Lewis Hall allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Newcastle United exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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