Charlton Athletic vs Birmingham City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
The Valley Sat, 7 Mar - 3:00 PM
Championship
Charlton Athletic CHA
1 Winner 0
Birmingham City BRC
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 3:00 PM
Charlie Kelman - 74'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Charlton Athletic 1–0 Birmingham City. The result saw Charlton Athletic take the points. Charlton Athletic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Charlton Athletic showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
R. Hyde
R. Hyde
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
J. Linington
J. Linington
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
D. Williams
D. Williams
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
L. Doughty
L. Doughty
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Charlton Athletic N. Jones
N. Jones
VS
Birmingham City C. Davies
C. Davies
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.29
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Millwall Rank: L
Derby County Rank: L
Sheffield United Rank: W
Blackburn Rovers Rank: D
Coventry City Rank: D
Portsmouth Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Swansea City Rank: D
Coventry City Rank: W
Watford Rank: L
Southampton Rank: D
Derby County Rank: D
7
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
7 - 9 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Charlton Athletic
24.41%
Draw
28.08%
Away Birmingham City
47.51%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
43.24
46.48
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Charlton Athletic
Birmingham City
Power Score
43.24
46.48
League Position
18
12
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Charlton Athletic — Opponent-weighted form score
Birmingham City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Charlton Athletic Birmingham City

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Charlton Athletic

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Birmingham City

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Charlton Athletic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
31.40
15.79
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
15.79
31.40
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Charlton Athletic +1.47 Efficiency Index
vs
Birmingham City -1.47 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Charlton Athletic
Birmingham City
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Charlton Athletic ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Birmingham City
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Charlton Athletic Birmingham City
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Charlton Athletic Birmingham City
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Charlton Athletic
Birmingham City
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Charlton Athletic CHA Home
1 matches
Birmingham City BRC Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
1
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:07:20+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
The Valley
Capacity
27111
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Robert Hyde
James Linington
Darren Williams
Leigh Doughty

Statistics

Possession
CHA
47%
BRC
53%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
1 Big Chances Created 0
12 Shots 7
30 Dangerous attacks 40
43 Possession 57
3 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 6
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

26 Successful Headers 19
21 Throwins 17
9 Dribble Attempts 7
5 Successful Dribbles 5
56 Successful Dribbles Percentage 71
79 Ball Safe 78
5 Goal Kicks 6
6 Goal Attempts 4
5 Substitutions 5
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

95 Attacks 122
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

236 Successful Passes 326
40 Successful Long Passes 22
327 Passes 441
88 Long Passes 72
45 Successful Long Passes Percentage 31
72 Successful Passes Percentage 74
5 Key Passes 4

Defensive

6 Tackles 6
16 Interceptions 9
1 Saves 3

Build-up

15 Total Crosses 17
3 Accurate Crosses 0

Discipline

6 Offsides 1
6 Fouls 14

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Macaulay Gillesphey → Tyreece Campbell
10th Substitution
90+1'
Event
Conor Coady → Conor Coventry
9th Substitution
90+1'
86'
Event
Kanya Fujimoto → Jonathan Panzo
8th Substitution
Event
Miles Leaburn → Lyndon Dykes
6th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Ethan Laird → Jhon Solís
5th Substitution
81'
Event
Patrick Roberts → Carlos Vicente
7th Substitution
Event
Charlie Kelman
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
74'
Event
Joe Rankin-Costello → Greg Docherty
3rd Substitution
71'
Event
Charlie Kelman → Luke Chambers
4th Substitution
71'
57'
Event
Ibrahim Osman → Demarai Gray
1st Substitution
57'
Event
Jay Stansfield → August Priske
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
17'
Event
August Priske
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Charlton Athletic after a foul by Kai Wagner.
90
Update Update
That's a wrap! The match has concluded with Charlton Athletic securing a 1-0 victory over Birmingham City.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Miles Leaburn from Charlton Athletic took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Harry Clarke.
90
Update Update
Kanya Fujimoto from Birmingham City committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Charlie Kelman from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Conor Coady comes on to replace Conor Coventry.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Macaulay Gillesphey comes on to replace Tyreece Campbell.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Charlton Athletic securing a 1-0 victory over Birmingham City.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Charlton Athletic 1, Birmingham City 0.
89
Update Update
Kanya Fujimoto from Birmingham City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
88
Update Update
Conor Coventry committed a foul against a player from Charlton Athletic.
88
Corner Corner
Another offensive push! Sonny Carey from Charlton Athletic heads the ball from the center of the box, but it's expertly saved in the bottom right corner.
87
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Conor Coventry has been caught in an offside position.
87
Update Update
Kayne Ramsay from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
87
Update Update
Jhon Solís from Birmingham City committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Miles Leaburn from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
86
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Kanya Fujimoto comes on to replace Jonathan Panzo.
86
Update Update
Christoph Klarer committed a foul against a player from Birmingham City.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Ethan Laird comes on to replace Jhon Solís.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Patrick Roberts comes on to replace Carlos Vicente.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Miles Leaburn comes on to replace Lyndon Dykes.
80
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City took a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it went over the goal and to the right. The assist came from Jay Stansfield.
78
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Conor Coventry has been flagged for being in an offside position.
78
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Jay Stansfield from Birmingham City attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Paik Seung-Ho.
75
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Harry Clarke from Charlton Athletic fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
74
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Charlton Athletic takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against Birmingham City. Charlie Kelman scored for Charlton Athletic, firing a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
72
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo committed a foul for Birmingham City.
72
Update Update
Charlie Kelman from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick on the right side of the field.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Joe Rankin-Costello comes on to replace Greg Docherty.
71
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Charlton Athletic: Charlie Kelman replaces Luke Chambers.
69
Attempt Attempt
An exciting offensive play unfolds as Marvin Ducksch from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but Will Mannion, the goalkeeper for Charlton Athletic, makes a solid save right in the middle of the goal.
68
Update Update
Ibrahim Osman from Birmingham City earned a free kick in an offensive position.
68
Update Update
Harry Clarke from Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Paik Seung-Ho of Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Jhon Solís.
65
Attempt Attempt
Carlos Vicente from Birmingham City attempts a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
65
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Lloyd Jones allowed the ball to go out.
64
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick in an offensive position.
61
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo from Birmingham City committed a foul.
61
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Jay Stansfield replaces August Priske due to an injury.
57
Update Update
Match temporarily halted due to an injury to August Priske of Birmingham City.
57
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Birmingham City: Ibrahim Osman comes on to replace Demarai Gray.
55
Update Update
Ryan Allsop from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
55
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes from Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
55
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Charlton Athletic after Christoph Klarer allowed the ball to go out.
53
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Tyreece Campbell from Charlton Athletic takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Sonny Carey, who set him up with a header.
53
Update Update
Lloyd Jones from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick for his team in their defensive area.
50
Update Update
Conor Coventry committed a foul against Charlton Athletic.
50
Update Update
Marvin Ducksch committed a foul against a Birmingham City player.
48
Update Update
Christoph Klarer from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
48
Update Update
Conor Coventry committed a foul against a player from Charlton Athletic.
47
Update Update
August Priske committed a foul against Birmingham City.
47
Update Update
Lloyd Jones from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
46
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Charlton Athletic 0, Birmingham City 0.
46
Update Update
Amari'i Bell from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
45
Update Update
Offside call against Birmingham City. August Priske was caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Charlton Athletic 0, Birmingham City 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
44
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Tyreece Campbell has been caught offside.
43
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Lloyd Jones has been caught in an offside position.
41
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Amari'i Bell allowed the ball to go out.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Amari'i Bell allowed the ball to go out.
35
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes from Charlton Athletic has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
34
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo of Birmingham City committed a foul.
34
Update Update
Another offensive effort unfolds. Greg Docherty of Charlton Athletic heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but Ryan Allsop of Birmingham City makes a save, denying him by stopping it in the upper center of the goal.
33
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Birmingham City after Kayne Ramsay allowed the ball to go out.
27
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Sonny Carey of Charlton Athletic fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Lyndon Dykes.
27
Update Update
Carlos Vicente committed a foul against Birmingham City.
27
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Sonny Carey from Charlton Athletic takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but Ryan Allsop of Birmingham City makes a save in the right corner.
27
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Demarai Gray from Birmingham City takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked.
26
Update Update
Amari'i Bell from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
26
Update Update
Kayne Ramsay of Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
25
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Charlton Athletic after Paik Seung-Ho allowed the ball to go out of play.
25
Update Update
Demarai Gray from Birmingham City earned a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Harry Clarke from Charlton Athletic takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Tyreece Campbell, who delivered a cross.
21
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
21
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Christoph Klarer from Birmingham City.
20
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
20
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Greg Docherty from Charlton Athletic.
19
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Lyndon Dykes of Charlton Athletic attempted a long-range shot with his right foot from the left side but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Greg Docherty after a quick counter-attack.
17
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
August Priske of Birmingham City has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
17
Update Update
August Priske committed a foul against Birmingham City.
17
Update Update
Lloyd Jones from Charlton Athletic earned a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Demarai Gray commits a foul for Birmingham City.
12
Update Update
Demarai Gray committed a foul against a player from Birmingham City.
9
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes from Charlton Athletic has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
9
Update Update
Jonathan Panzo of Birmingham City committed a foul.
4
Update Update
Lloyd Jones from Charlton Athletic has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
4
Update Update
Christoph Klarer committed a foul on a Birmingham City player.
3
Update Update
Kai Wagner from Birmingham City has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
3
Update Update
Lyndon Dykes from Charlton Athletic committed a foul.
1
Update Update
Offside call against Charlton Athletic. Tyreece Campbell has been caught offside.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Charlton Athletic exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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