Ceuta vs Castellón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube Sat, 9 May - 12:00 PM
La Liga 2
Ceuta Ceuta
Versus
Castellón Castellón
KICKOFF : Sat, 9 May - 12:00 PM
Round 39 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Ceuta hosts Castellón at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in a La Liga 2 regular season fixture during the 2025/2026 campaign. Sitting 11th in the standings, Ceuta confronts a formidable 5th-placed Castellón, who possess a clear edge with a power score of 67.92 versus Ceuta's 56.85, yielding an 11.1-point advantage. Castellón's recent form shines brighter at 37.28 compared to Ceuta's modest 17.89, highlighting their momentum. Projections underscore Castellón's dominance at 55.7%, while Ceuta holds just 20.5%. Detailed metrics on set pieces remain unavailable due to absent xG data, forcing reliance on broader indicators. Home support may fuel Ceuta's resistance, yet Castellón's structural superiority positions them as favorites. Midfield control and defensive solidity will prove pivotal in this matchup.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Castellón enjoys a 11.1-point power advantage over Ceuta, scoring 67.92 to the hosts' 56.85.
  • Form: Castellón outperforms Ceuta in form with 37.28 against 17.89.
  • Squad: Ceuta occupies 11th place in La Liga 2, trailing Castellón in 5th.
  • Efficiency: No efficiency metrics available for this encounter.
  • Transition: Transition play data unavailable for both teams.
  • Set pieces: Set piece performance data absent due to lack of xG information.
  • xVariable: xG statistics not provided for Ceuta or Castellón.
  • Market: Ceuta 21.2% (Δ+0.1%) | Draw 23.4% (Δ+-0%) | Castellón 55.4% (Δ+-0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Ceuta J. Romero Gil
J. Romero Gil
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.38
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 W
Racing Santander Rank: 70 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 58 D
Real Sociedad II Rank: 59 D
SD Eibar Rank: 69 L
Burgos Rank: 67 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Córdoba Rank: 63 L
Málaga Rank: 68 W
Burgos Rank: 67 W
Mirandés Rank: 59 D
Granada Rank: 65 W
Almería Rank: 71 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Ceuta
21.17%
Draw
23.42%
Away Castellón
55.42%

Movement

Changes since opening
Ceuta
+0.06%
Draw
-0.01%
Castellón
-0.04%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.85
67.92
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Ceuta
Castellón
Power Score
56.85
67.92
League Position
11
5
Global Rank
435
256

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Ceuta — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Ceuta Castellón

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Ceuta Ceuta Home
1 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
3
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
3
0
Goal Difference
0

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T00:06:47+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
G. Vallejo Delgado
13 G. Vallejo Delgado
A. Ahmed Ahmed
7 A. Ahmed Ahmed
C. Hernández Alarcón
6 C. Hernández Alarcón
Y. Bodiger
14 Y. Bodiger
C. Redruello Nimo
16 C. Redruello Nimo
J. Zalazar Martínez
8 J. Zalazar Martínez
Y. Didi
5 Y. Didi
M. Illescas Montaño
12 M. Illescas Montaño
S. Sánchez Ponce
25 S. Sánchez Ponce
M. Fernández Sánchez
9 M. Fernández Sánchez
K. De La Fuente
18 K. De La Fuente
R. Matthys
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Jiménez Benítez
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
3 F. Brignani
J. Mellot
22 J. Mellot
A. Jakobsen
19 A. Jakobsen
R. Pompeu da Silva
25 R. Pompeu da Silva
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
B. Kibambe Cipenga
16 B. Kibambe Cipenga
O. Camara
9 O. Camara
A. Calatrava Torrado
21 A. Calatrava Torrado

General Information

Date & Time :
May 09, 2026, 12:00 PM
Competition :
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 39 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
Capacity :
6500
Pitch Surface :
Artificial turf
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

13
Guillermo Vallejo
Guillermo Vallejo Goalkeeper
6.89
9
Marcos Fernández
Marcos Fernández Centre Forward
6.89
25
Salvi
Salvi Attacker
6.6
18
Konrad de la Fuente
Konrad de la Fuente Attacker
6.69
12
Marino Illescas
Marino Illescas Central Midfield
6.87
5
Youness Lachhab
Youness Lachhab Central Midfield
6.75
7
Aisar Ahmed
Aisar Ahmed Right Back
6.68
8
Kuki Zalazar
Kuki Zalazar Central Midfield
6.91
14
Yann Bodiger
Yann Bodiger Left Back
6.64
16
Carlos Redru
Carlos Redru Left Back
6.39
6
Carlos Hernández
Carlos Hernández Right Back
6.85

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.86
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.65
16
Brian Cipenga
Brian Cipenga Midfielder
7.05
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
6.9
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
7.27
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Left Back
6.77
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Right Back
6.93
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Right Back
6.74
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Left Back
7.15
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Central Midfield
6.95
25
Ronaldo
Ronaldo Central Midfield
6.8

CONCLUSION

Castellón arrives as the stronger outfit, backed by superior power ratings, form, and league position, making them well-poised to claim victory away at Ceuta. The 11.1-point edge underscores their structural dominance, while projections align at 55.7% in their favor. Ceuta must harness home atmosphere and grit to counter this, particularly without advanced set piece insights. Expect Castellón's momentum to shine through in transitions and open play, pressuring Ceuta's defense. A narrow win for the visitors seems likely, bolstering their top-five aspirations in La Liga 2.

Ceuta vs Castellón preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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