Celta de Vigo vs Real Madrid Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Estadio de Balaídos Fri, 6 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga
Celta de Vigo CEL
1 Winner 2
Real Madrid RMA
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 8:00 PM
Borja Iglesias - 25'
Goal
|
Goal
Aurélien Tchouaméni - 11'
Federico Valverde - 90+4'

CONTEXT

The match between Celta de Vigo and Real Madrid has finished, with Real Madrid securing a 2-1 away victory. The teams went into the halftime break locked at 1-1, but the visitors eventually found the decisive breakthrough in the second half. Real Madrid largely dictated the tempo throughout the contest, dominating the ball with 63% possession compared to Celta de Vigo's 37%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture. Heading into the game, the pre-match market slightly favored the visitors with a 38.9% implied probability of winning, alongside a 32.8% chance for a Celta de Vigo victory and 28.3% for a draw. The final outcome ultimately aligned with these pre-match market predictions. However, the victory still represented a significant deviation level of 61.1% for Real Madrid, reflecting a competitive baseline expectation going into the tie. The match flowed without major disciplinary disruptions, as neither side received a red card. In terms of performance metrics, the efficiency shift was completely in line with expectations. Real Madrid posted a positive efficiency rating of 0.3623, while the hosts mirrored that negatively at -0.3623. Although xG alignment could not be evaluated, Madrid's sustained possession and efficient execution earned them the three points.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Real Madrid showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Díaz de Mera Escuderos
I. Díaz de Mera Escuderos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
I. Prieto López de Ceraín
I. Prieto López de Ceraín
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
D. Santaursula Aguado
D. Santaursula Aguado
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
D. Clemente Manrique
D. Clemente Manrique
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 2.25
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.38
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.06
Celta de Vigo C. Giráldez González
C. Giráldez González
VS
Real Madrid Á. Arbeloa Coca
Á. Arbeloa Coca
1.81
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.29
2.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Rayo Vallecano Rank: W
Sevilla Rank: W
Valencia Rank: W
Real Oviedo Rank: D
Athletic Club Rank: W
Real Madrid Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Levante Rank: W
Real Betis Rank: W
Sevilla Rank: W
Deportivo Alavés Rank: W
Celta de Vigo Rank: L
Athletic Club Rank: W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 3 - 27
27

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Celta de Vigo
32.79%
Draw
28.3%
Away Real Madrid
38.91%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.38
77.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Celta de Vigo
Real Madrid
Power Score
49.38
77.78
League Position
6
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Celta de Vigo — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Madrid — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Celta de Vigo Real Madrid

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Celta de Vigo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Madrid

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Celta de Vigo ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Madrid
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.32
27.70
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.70
24.32
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Celta de Vigo -0.31 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Madrid +0.31 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Celta de Vigo
Real Madrid
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Celta de Vigo
vs
Real Madrid
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Celta de Vigo Real Madrid
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Celta de Vigo Real Madrid
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Celta de Vigo
Real Madrid
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 11 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Celta de Vigo CEL Home
11 matches
Real Madrid RMA Away
Match Record
1
Wins
10
0
Draws
0
10
Losses
1
Goals
10
Goals Scored
28
28
Goals Conceded
10
-18
Goal Difference
+18
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:31:32+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga, Spain
Stadium
Estadio de Balaídos
Capacity
25000
Attendance
22048
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Isidro Díaz de Mera Escuderos
Iñigo Prieto López de Ceraín
Diego Santaursula Aguado
D. Clemente Manrique

Statistics

Possession
CEL
39%
RMA
61%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 0
4 Shots 4
20 Dangerous attacks 69
37 Possession 63
1 Corners 6
12 Free kicks 4
1 Yellow Cards 2

Match Overview

5 Goal Kicks 6
14 Throwins 16
1 Assists 1
10 Successful Headers 4
64 Successful Dribbles Percentage 61
1 Hit Woodwork 1
11 Dribble Attempts 18
8 Goal Attempts 8
7 Successful Dribbles 11
79 Ball Safe 63
5 Substitutions 3
0 Injuries 1

Attacking

71 Attacks 146

Possession

410 Successful Passes 740
473 Passes 810
44 Long Passes 51
87 Successful Passes Percentage 91
55 Successful Long Passes Percentage 51
24 Successful Long Passes 26
7 Key Passes 10

Defensive

10 Interceptions 14
10 Tackles 13
1 Saves 3

Build-up

6 Total Crosses 18
3 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

4 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Federico Valverde
Right foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Matías Vecino → Ilaix Moriba
8th Substitution
90+1'
90'
Event
Raúl Asencio
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
Event
Manuel Ángel Morán → Thiago Pitarch
7th Substitution
86'
Event
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Iago Aspas → Óscar Mingueza
6th Substitution
83'
77'
Event
Gonzalo García → Brahim Díaz
5th Substitution
71'
Event
Trent Alexander-Arnold 
Penalty cancelled
Event
Hugo Álvarez → Ferran Jutglà
4th Substitution
70'
Event
Jones El-Abdellaoui → Borja Iglesias
3rd Substitution
70'
Event
Fer López → Williot Swedberg
2nd Substitution
69'
65'
Event
César Palacios → Arda Güler
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Borja Iglesias
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
31'
Event
Borja Iglesias
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
25'
11'
Event
Aurélien Tchouaméni
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
Iago Aspas from Celta Vigo was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the final score: Celta Vigo 1, Real Madrid 2.
90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celta Vigo 1, Real Madrid 2. Federico Valverde from Real Madrid scores with a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, sending the ball into the top left corner of the net.
90
Update Update
Opportunity squandered! Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar and to the right. The cross was delivered by Miguel Román.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 5 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Madrid, following a foul by Javi Rodríguez.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Matías Vecino comes on to replace Ilaix Moriba.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Raúl Asencio of Real Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Raúl Asencio of Real Madrid committed a foul.
90
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Manuel Ángel replaces Thiago Pitarch.
87
Attempt Attempt
Iago Aspas from Celta Vigo strikes the right post with a left-footed shot taken from the center of the penalty area, with an assist from Jones El Abdellaoui.
86
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aurélien Tchouaméni of Real Madrid has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
86
Update Update
Aurélien Tchouaméni of Real Madrid committed a foul.
86
Update Update
Carl Starfelt of Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
Sergio Carreira from Celta Vigo was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
84
Update Update
Thiago Pitarch committed a foul against a player from Real Madrid.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Iago Aspas comes on to replace Óscar Mingueza.
81
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid committed a foul.
81
Update Update
Javi Rodríguez from Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Ionut Radu of Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
80
Update Update
Antonio Rüdiger of Real Madrid committed a foul.
79
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Thiago Pitarch from Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Vinícius Júnior.
79
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Javi Rodríguez allowed the ball to go out.
79
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
79
Update Update
Match interruption - Real Madrid.
78
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Antonio Rüdiger of Real Madrid heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The cross was delivered by Trent Alexander-Arnold.
78
Corner Corner
Opportunity squandered. Antonio Rüdiger of Real Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from the center of the box, but it sailed high and wide to the right following a corner kick.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: Gonzalo García comes on to replace Brahim Díaz.
77
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after a deflection off Jones El Abdellaoui.
71
Update Update
César Palacios from Real Madrid committed a foul.
70
Update Update
VAR Review: No Penalty Awarded to Real Madrid.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Hugo Álvarez comes on to replace Ferran Jutglà.
69
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Federico Valverde of Real Madrid took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it sailed over the goal.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Jones El Abdellaoui comes on to replace Borja Iglesias.
69
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Celta Vigo: Fer López comes on to replace Williot Swedberg.
68
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Real Madrid, following a foul by Carl Starfelt.
68
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. César Palacios from Real Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
67
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. The attempt is expertly saved in the bottom left corner by Ionut Radu of Celta Vigo, with Federico Valverde providing the assist.
65
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Real Madrid: César Palacios replaces Arda Güler.
64
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Thiago Pitarch from Real Madrid fires a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
60
Update Update
Match interruption due to an injury to Thiago Pitarch of Real Madrid.
60
Corner Corner
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Ferran Jutglà from Celta Vigo takes a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area. However, Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid makes a brilliant save, denying the attempt in the top right corner. The assist came from Miguel Román, who delivered a precise cross.
60
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
59
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Celta Vigo after Raúl Asencio allowed the ball to go out.
54
Update Update
Federico Valverde from Real Madrid committed a foul.
54
Update Update
Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
54
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Javi Rodríguez allowed the ball to go out.
52
Update Update
Borja Iglesias committed a foul against a player from Celta Vigo.
52
Update Update
Ferland Mendy of Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive zone.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at 1-1 between Celta Vigo and Real Madrid.
45
Corner Corner
Another offensive push. Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo takes a left-footed shot from the center of the box, but Thibaut Courtois from Real Madrid makes a great save in the top left corner. The assist came from Sergio Carreira, who delivered a cross.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score tied at 1-1 between Celta Vigo and Real Madrid.
41
Update Update
Raúl Asencio from Real Madrid committed a foul.
41
Update Update
Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
40
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Ferran Jutglà from Celta Vigo attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
35
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Aurélien Tchouaméni from Real Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
31
Update Update
Aurélien Tchouaméni of Real Madrid earned a free kick in an offensive position.
31
Update Update
Borja Iglesias commits a foul against Celta Vigo.
31
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Borja Iglesias of Celta Vigo has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
27
Update Update
Celta Vigo has been flagged for offside. Ferran Jutglà is caught in an offside position.
25
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now 1-1 between Celta Vigo and Real Madrid. Borja Iglesias scores for Celta Vigo with a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
21
Update Update
Ilaix Moriba from Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
21
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Vinícius Júnior from Real Madrid fires a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
21
Update Update
Federico Valverde committed a foul for Real Madrid.
20
Update Update
Antonio Rüdiger from Real Madrid committed a foul.
20
Update Update
Ferran Jutglà from Celta Vigo earned a free kick in an attacking position.
19
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Federico Valverde of Real Madrid attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed over the goal. The assist came from Aurélien Tchouaméni.
19
Update Update
Brahim Díaz from Real Madrid committed a foul.
19
Update Update
Williot Swedberg from Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Raúl Asencio from Real Madrid has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
19
Update Update
Borja Iglesias committed a foul against a player from Celta Vigo.
15
Corner Corner
Corner kick awarded to Celta Vigo after a deflection off Thibaut Courtois.
11
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Aurélien Tchouaméni from Real Madrid attempts a left-footed strike from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked.
11
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Aurélien Tchouaméni of Real Madrid takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Brahim Díaz.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Real Madrid after Carl Starfelt allowed the ball to go out.
11
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Celta Vigo 0, Real Madrid 1. Aurélien Tchouaméni scores for Real Madrid with a right-footed shot from the center of the penalty area into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Arda Güler following a corner kick.
10
Update Update
Vinícius Júnior of Real Madrid strikes the left upright with a right-footed attempt from the center of the penalty area, assisted by Trent Alexander-Arnold.
6
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area. Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid makes a great save, diving to his right. The assist for this attempt came from Williot Swedberg.
5
Update Update
Thiago Pitarch of Real Madrid committed a foul.
5
Update Update
Miguel Román from Celta Vigo has been awarded a free kick in his own half.
2
Update Update
Williot Swedberg of Celta Vigo commits a handball.
1
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Borja Iglesias from Celta Vigo attempted a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it went over the goal and to the right.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Real Madrid exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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