Castellón vs Cultural Leonesa Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia Mon, 23 Mar - 7:30 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón Castellón
1 – 1
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa
Full Time Mon, 23 Mar 7:30 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
Ousmane Camara - 50'
Goal
|
Goal
Luis Chacón - 90' (P)

CONTEXT

The match between Castellón and Cultural Leonesa has officially finished, resulting in a hard-fought 1-1 draw. Following an evenly matched first half that ended 0-0, both sides managed to find the back of the net in the second half to ultimately share the points. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations. Castellón entered the contest as heavy favorites, holding an implied 64.9% probability of victory according to the betting markets. A draw sat at just a 20.3% likelihood, while an away win for Cultural Leonesa was priced at a slim 14.9%. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market. On the pitch, the game was relatively balanced. Castellón held a slight advantage with 52% possession compared to Cultural Leonesa's 48%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, meaning alignment with underlying offensive metrics cannot be evaluated. However, the overall efficiency shift was entirely in line with the general flow of the match. Finally, the fixture was played cleanly; no red cards were issued to either side, meaning no major disciplinary events impacted the outcome.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Castellón showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
Cultural Leonesa R. De La Barrera Fernández
R. De La Barrera Fernández
1.83
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.1
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Las Palmas Rank: 70 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Leganés Rank: 67 D
Real Zaragoza Rank: 59 D
Málaga Rank: 69 L
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 68 L
Ceuta Rank: 61 L
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Castellón
64.88%
Draw
20.27%
Away Cultural Leonesa
14.85%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
65.64
55.24
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Cultural Leonesa
Power Score
65.64
55.24
League Position
6
21
Global Rank
310
512

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Cultural Leonesa — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Castellón Cultural Leonesa

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Cultural Leonesa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cultural Leonesa
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.17
32.40
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
32.40
28.17
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Castellón -0.43 Efficiency Index
vs
Cultural Leonesa +0.43 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Cultural Leonesa
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Castellón ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Cultural Leonesa
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Castellón Cultural Leonesa
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Castellón Cultural Leonesa
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Castellón
Cultural Leonesa
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Castellón Castellón Home
1 matches
Cultural Leonesa Cultural Leonesa Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
3
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:26:11+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-4-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
S. Ruiz Rodríguez
Substitution
Spain
17 (C) S. Ruiz Rodríguez
L. Alcázar Moreno
Substitution
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Jakobsen
Substitution
Denmark
19 A. Jakobsen
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
M. Doue
Substitution
France
6 M. Doue
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
A. Calatrava Torrado
Spain
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
O. Camara
France
9 O. Camara
E. Badía Guardiola
Spain
13 E. Badía Guardiola
R. Hinojo Estrada
Spain
21 R. Hinojo Estrada
M. Barzic Gutiérrez
Spain
36 M. Barzic Gutiérrez
R. Suárez Marcos
Spain
4 (C) R. Suárez Marcos
V. García Hernández
Venezuela
24 V. García Hernández
N. Radoja
Substitution
Serbia
22 N. Radoja
T. Ojeda
Substitution
Argentina
28 T. Ojeda
H. Ahmed
Substitution
Qatar
12 H. Ahmed
L. Rodríguez Chacón
Spain
10 L. Rodríguez Chacón
I. Calero Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
17 I. Calero Ruiz
L. Ribeiro Costa
Substitution
Brazil
15 L. Ribeiro Costa

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 23, 2026, 07:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity
15500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Alejandro Morilla Turrión
Alaiz Gutiérrez Martino
Manuel Herrera Ruiz
David López Jiménez

Statistics

Possession
Castellón
52%
Cultural Leonesa
48%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
4 Shots 5
33 Dangerous attacks 31
52 Possession 48
1 Corners 4
20 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

8 Successful Dribbles 9
19 Dribble Attempts 20
42 Successful Dribbles Percentage 45
4 Goal Kicks 5
17 Throwins 19
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 0
1 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Penalties 1
1 Injuries 0
8 Goal Attempts 10
91 Ball Safe 79

Attacking

112 Attacks 87
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

357 Successful Passes 315
11 Key Passes 7
48 Long Passes 51
427 Passes 400
84 Successful Passes Percentage 79
21 Successful Long Passes 20
44 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39

Defensive

4 Saves 3
23 Tackles 26
15 Interceptions 4

Build-up

13 Total Crosses 12
5 Accurate Crosses 1

Discipline

12 Fouls 19
4 Offsides 3

Lineup

Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
6.99
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
7.69
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
6.59
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker90+1'
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Defender
7.34
17
Salva Ruiz
Salva Ruiz (C) Defender
7.22
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani
Defender79'
6.42
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué Midfielder
7.03
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero
Midfielder46'
7.19
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
6.56
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Midfielder
6.51
14
Raúl Sánchez
Raúl Sánchez
Attacker73'
6.54
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen Midfielder
6.61
27
Ismael Fadel
Ismael Fadel
Defender46'
5.9
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
7.44
21
Álex Calatrava
Álex Calatrava Attacker
6.86
Referee : Alejandro Morilla Turrión

Starting XI ▼

13
Edgar Badia
Edgar Badia Goalkeeper
7.07
4
Rodri Suárez
Rodri Suárez (C) Defender
7
21
Roger Hinojo
Roger Hinojo Defender
6.8
24
Víctor García
Víctor García Defender
6.85
36
Matia Barzic
Matia Barzic Defender
6.33
10
Luis Chacón
Luis Chacón Midfielder
7.32
12
Homam Al-Amin
Homam Al-Amin Midfielder
6.49
20
Rafa Tresaco
Rafa Tresaco
Attacker57'
6.55
17
Iván Calero
Iván Calero Midfielder
6.57
7
Diego Collado
Diego Collado
Attacker74'
6.51
22
Nemanja Radoja
Nemanja Radoja Midfielder
6.91
6
Sergi Maestre
Sergi Maestre
Midfielder75'
6.35
28
Thiago Ojeda
Thiago Ojeda Midfielder
6.18
23
Selu Diallo
Selu Diallo
Midfielder57'
6.41
15
Lucas Ribeiro
Lucas Ribeiro Attacker
6.57
19
Rubén Sobrino
Rubén Sobrino
Attacker82'
6.94

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Álex Calatrava
Foul / 8th Yellowcard
90+5'
Event
Álvaro García → Lucas Alcázar
10th Substitution
90+1'
90'
Event
Luis Chacón
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Ismael Fadel
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
88'
Event
10th Yellowcard
88'
83'
Event
Sergi Maestre
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
82'
Event
Rubén Sobrino → Lucas Ribeiro
9th Substitution
80'
Event
Rodri Suárez
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Fabrizio Brignani → Salva Ruiz
8th Substitution
79'
75'
Event
Sergi Maestre → Nemanja Radoja
7th Substitution
74'
Event
Diego Collado → Iván Calero
6th Substitution
Event
Raúl Sánchez → Pablo Santiago
5th Substitution
73'
57'
Event
Selu Diallo → Thiago Ojeda
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Rafa Tresaco → Homam Al-Amin
4th Substitution
Event
Ousmane Camara
Header / 1st Goal
50'
Event
Diego Barri
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
47'
Event
Ismael Fadel → Adam Jakobsen
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Israel Suero → Marc-Olivier Doué
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
24'
Event
Luis Chacón
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
16'
Event
Homam Al-Amin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
2'
Event
Matia Barzic
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
2'
Event
9th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Castellón exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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