Castellón vs Burgos Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Nou Estadi Castalia
Sat, 18 Apr - 4:30 PM
La Liga 2
Castellón
Castellón
Burgos
BUR
KICKOFF :
Sat, 18 Apr - 4:30 PM
Round 36 ·
Regular Season
STANDINGS
Loading standings...
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
The 2025/2026 La Liga 2 season brings together two promotion contenders as Castellón host Burgos at the Nou Estadi Castalia during the regular season. Castellón sit in sixth place while Burgos occupy fifth, setting the stage for a closely fought battle with significant implications for the standings. Burgos hold a power advantage of 4.8 points and enter as the stronger side overall, yet home advantage and recent competitiveness keep Castellón firmly in contention. Form favors the visitors, who remain unbeaten with four wins and two draws from six matches after a home victory over Sporting Gijón. Castellón have recorded two wins, three draws and one loss in the same span, most recently sharing the points away to Mirandés. Both teams emphasize organization and resilience, promising a tactical matchup where small margins could decide the outcome.
TL;DR
-
Structural: Castellón in sixth host fifth-placed Burgos at Nou Estadi Castalia in a key promotion tussle within a competitive La Liga 2 table.
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Form: Burgos lead with an unbeaten W4 D2 L0 record from six games after beating Sporting Gijón, while Castellón sit at W2 D3 L1 following a draw at Mirandés.
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Squad: Both sides field competitive and resilient squads, with Burgos demonstrating greater consistency across recent selections and results.
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Efficiency: Limited efficiency data points to Burgos appearing sharper based on power metrics and their strong recent performances.
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Transition: Burgos look capable of exploiting transitions effectively, building on momentum from their latest win and overall form.
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Set pieces: Set-piece reliance relies on proxy indicators with low confidence, requiring both teams to stay alert in dead-ball moments.
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xVariable: Power advantage of 4.8 points tilts toward Burgos, adding variability that could influence away-day execution and outcomes.
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Market: Castellón 54.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.6% (Δ+0%) | Burgos 19.2% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25
vs Team A
Feb 1
vs Team B
Feb 8
vs Team C
P. Hernández Domínguez
VS
L. Ramis Monfort
1.77
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
1.85
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mirandés
Rank:
D
Granada
Rank:
W
Almería
Rank:
W
Albacete
Rank:
D
Cultural Leonesa
Rank:
D
Sporting Gijón
Rank:
L
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón
Rank:
W
Albacete
Rank:
W
Ceuta
Rank:
D
Real Valladolid
Rank:
W
Córdoba
Rank:
W
SD Eibar
Rank:
D
2
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0
No sidelined player data available.
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Castellón
54.25%
Draw
26.55%
Burgos
19.21%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
29.59
34.38
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Castellón
Burgos
Power Score
29.59
34.38
League Position
6
5
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Castellón
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Burgos
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Castellón Burgos
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Castellón
Castellón
Home
3
matches
Burgos
BUR
Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
1
1
Goals Conceded
4
+3
Goal Difference
-3
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:17:05+00:00
STARTING XI - EXPECTED
13 R. Matthys
6 M. Doue
3 F. Brignani
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
18 P. Santiago López
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
19 A. Jakobsen
21 A. Calatrava Torrado
9 O. Camara
13 A. Cantero Armendáriz
12 F. Miguel
8 G. Sierra Pérez
3 O. Luengo Redondo
2 A. Lizancos Saldaña
21 I. Córdoba Kerejeta
5 M. Atienza Villa
23 I. Ruiz
14 D. Gonzalez Ballesteros
9 F. Niño Rodriguez
16 F. Sánchez Rodríguez
General Information
Date & Time
Apr 18, 2026, 04:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Nou Estadi Castalia
Capacity
15500
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Next Match
Castellón
vs
Málaga
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 7:00 PM
Venue: Estadio La Rosaleda
Burgos
vs
Deportivo La Coruña
League: La Liga 2
Kickoff: Sat, 25 Apr - 4:30 PM
Venue: Estadio Municipal de El Plantío
Expected Lineup
Manager ▼
P. Hernández Domínguez
Coach
Starting XI ▼
13
Romain Matthys
Goalkeeper
6.84 18
Pablo Santiago
Midfielder
6.82 19
Adam Jakobsen
Midfielder
6.65 21
Álex Calatrava
Attacker
7.19 9
Ousmane Camara
Attacker
6.91 3
Fabrizio Brignani
Right Back
6.75 5
Alberto Jiménez
Left Back
7.16 6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Right Back
6.62 8
Diego Barri
Central Midfield
6.86 12
Lucas Alcázar
Left Back
6.78 15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Central Midfield
6.95 Substitutes ▼
29
Tommaso De Nipoti
6.58 55
Michal Willmann
1
Amir Abedzadeh
6.43 2
Tincho Conde
6.44 16
Brian Cipenga
7.02 17
Salva Ruiz
6.62 23
Álvaro García
6.53 25
Ronaldo
6.81 27
Ismael Fadel
6.28 7
Awer Mabil
6.82 10
Israel Suero
6.92 14
Raúl Sánchez
6.68 Manager ▼
L. Ramis Monfort
Coach
Starting XI ▼
13
Ander Cantero
Goalkeeper
7 14
David González
Midfielder
6.92 21
Iñigo Córdoba
Midfielder
6.81 9
Fer Niño
Attacker
6.9 16
Curro Sánchez
Attacker
7.16 3
Oier Luengo
Right Back
6.64 5
Miguel Atienza
Central Midfield
6.94 8
Grego Sierra
Left Back
6.87 2
Álex Lizancos
Right Back
6.96 12
Florian Miguel
Left Back
6.98 23
Iván Morante
Central Midfield
7.01 Substitutes ▼
1
Jesús Ruiz
6.98 4
Pablo Galdames
6.59 6
Sergio González
6.72 7
Mateo Mejía
6.75 10
Kévin Appin
6.61 11
Víctor Mollejo
6.56 15
Aitor Buñuel
6.83 33
Marcelo Expósito
6.75 20
Mario González
6.64 22
Brais Martínez
6.55 28
Saúl del Cerro
6.69 31
Fermín García
6.61 CONCLUSION
This fixture looks set for a tactical and competitive display, with Burgos carrying superior recent form and a power edge into the away assignment. Their unbeaten run suggests confidence in controlling key phases, yet Castellón can draw on home support and solid resilience to challenge strongly. Efficiency in attack and defensive transitions may prove decisive, especially as both teams sit close in the standings. Although data on set pieces remains limited, those moments could swing the result in a tight contest. Expect an engaging battle where organization and timely execution determine which side gains valuable points in the promotion race.