Carrarese vs Palermo Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Sun, 8 Mar - 4:15 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
0 Winner 1
Palermo PAL
Full Time Sun, 8 Mar 4:15 PM
|
Goal
Joel Pohjanpalo - 19'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Carrarese 0–0 Palermo. The match ended in a draw. Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 61%–39%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Palermo showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
M. Piccinini
M. Piccinini
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
M. Regattieri
M. Regattieri
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
D. Garzelli
D. Garzelli
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
G. Collu
G. Collu
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 15.52
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.4
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.28
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.16
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Palermo F. Inzaghi
F. Inzaghi
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.96
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
Modena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: D
Venezia Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Südtirol Rank: W
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Sampdoria Rank: D
Empoli Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: W
Modena Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
26.57%
Draw
29.26%
Away Palermo
44.17%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
36.78
65.52
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Palermo
Power Score
36.78
65.52
League Position
12
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Palermo — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Palermo

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Palermo

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.05
38.08
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
38.08
27.05
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Carrarese -1.08 Efficiency Index
vs
Palermo +1.08 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Palermo
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Palermo
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Carrarese Palermo
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Carrarese Palermo
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Palermo
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
3 matches
Palermo PAL Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
2
-4
Goal Difference
+4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-09T00:16:40+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 08, 2026, 04:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Marco Piccinini
Mattia Regattieri
Dario Garzelli
Giuseppe Collu

Statistics

Possession
CAR
59%
PAL
41%

Top Statistics

0 Goals 1
3 Big Chances Created 3
5 Shots 6
70 Dangerous attacks 37
61 Possession 39
9 Corners 5
9 Free kicks 14
2 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

8 Goal Kicks 8
33 Throwins 23
44 Ball Safe 39
9 Goal Attempts 2
0 Assists 1
11 Dribble Attempts 11
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 36
4 Successful Dribbles 4
2 Hit Woodwork 0
0 Injuries 1
5 Substitutions 5

Attacking

102 Attacks 82
3 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

33 Successful Long Passes 23
425 Passes 283
65 Long Passes 69
51 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33
8 Key Passes 6
81 Successful Passes Percentage 70
343 Successful Passes 198

Defensive

15 Tackles 15
4 Saves 3
12 Interceptions 4

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 3
34 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

14 Fouls 9
4 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mattia Finotto
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
90'
90'
Event
Mattia Bani
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Nikola Sekulov → Luis Hasa
10th Substitution
87'
Event
Devid Eugene Bouah → Nicolò Calabrese
8th Substitution
87'
87'
Event
Samuel Giovane → Antonio Palumbo
9th Substitution
Event
Filippo Distefano → Ernesto Torregrossa
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Jonas Rouhi → Niccolò Belloni
5th Substitution
66'
Event
Tommaso Rubino → Filippo Melegoni
6th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Dennis Johnsen → Jérémy Le Douaron
4th Substitution
50'
Event
Giangiacomo Magnani → Patryk Peda
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Jacopo Segre → Claudio Gomes
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Bartosz Bereszyński → Emmanuel Gyasi
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ernesto Torregrossa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
44'
19'
Event
Joel Pohjanpalo
Right foot shot / 1st Goal

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Palermo exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews