Carrarese vs Catanzaro Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio dei Marmi Fri, 6 Mar - 2:05 PM
Serie B
Carrarese CAR
3 – 3
Catanzaro CAT
Full Time Fri, 6 Mar 2:05 PM
Filippo Melegoni - 3'
Fabio Abiuso - 64'
Fabio Rispoli - 76' (Own Goal)
Goal
|
Goal
Julián Illanes - 7' (Own Goal)
Tommaso Cassandro - 39'
Filippo Pittarello - 90+4' (P)
Fabio Abiuso 90+3' Red Card
Fabio Abiuso 90+3' Red Card
|

CONTEXT

The match between Carrarese and Catanzaro has finished, ending in a dramatic 3-3 draw. Catanzaro led 2-1 at half-time, but Carrarese ultimately secured a point. Throughout the contest, Catanzaro controlled the majority of the ball, registering 55% possession compared to Carrarese's 45%. Expected goals (xG) metrics were unfortunately not available to determine if the final scoreline aligned with overall chance creation. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, specifically concerning Catanzaro. Pre-match market probabilities leaned slightly toward the home side, giving Carrarese a 39% chance of winning, with a draw at 30.9% and a Catanzaro victory at 30.2%. Because the fixture ended level, the outcome ultimately did not align with the primary market forecast. The match dynamics were heavily impacted by severe disciplinary issues. Carrarese received two red cards, creating a notable second-half distortion on the pitch. Despite the home team's massive two-man disadvantage, the recorded efficiency shift remained entirely in line with the unfolding match data. Overcoming the odds and their numerical deficit, Carrarese fought incredibly hard to claim a share of the spoils.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Catanzaro showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
F. Dionisi
F. Dionisi
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
D. Santarossa
D. Santarossa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
P. Capaldo
P. Capaldo
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
M. Dini
M. Dini
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.96
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 0.91
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Carrarese A. Calabro
A. Calabro
VS
Catanzaro A. Aquilani
A. Aquilani
1.08
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.72
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Mantova Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
Modena Rank: L
Calcio Padova Rank: L
Südtirol Rank: D
Venezia Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Frosinone Rank: D
Virtus Entella Rank: W
Mantova Rank: W
Pescara Rank: W
Reggiana Rank: W
Südtirol Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Carrarese
38.99%
Draw
30.86%
Away Catanzaro
30.15%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
38.1
54.76
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Carrarese
Catanzaro
Power Score
38.1
54.76
League Position
11
5
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Carrarese — Opponent-weighted form score
Catanzaro — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Carrarese Catanzaro

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Carrarese

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Catanzaro

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
55.11
19.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
19.09
55.11
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Carrarese +3.51 Efficiency Index
vs
Catanzaro -3.51 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Catanzaro
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Carrarese ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Catanzaro
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Carrarese Catanzaro
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Carrarese Catanzaro
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Carrarese
Catanzaro
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 4 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Carrarese CAR Home
4 matches
Catanzaro CAT Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
3
Draws
3
1
Losses
0
Goals
7
Goals Scored
9
9
Goals Conceded
7
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-07T11:17:23+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:05 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio dei Marmi
Capacity
5000
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Federico Dionisi
Davide Santarossa
Pasquale Capaldo
Matteo Dini

Statistics

Possession
CAR
49%
CAT
51%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 3
3 Big Chances Created 3
9 Shots 1
56 Dangerous attacks 30
45 Possession 55
4 Corners 2
21 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

72 Ball Safe 77
74 Successful Dribbles Percentage 59
2 Assists 1
14 Goal Attempts 7
15 Throwins 13
7 Goal Kicks 13
14 Successful Dribbles 10
19 Dribble Attempts 17
4 Substitutions 5
0 Penalties 1

Attacking

108 Attacks 90
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

353 Successful Passes 459
11 Key Passes 7
425 Passes 523
49 Long Passes 47
83 Successful Passes Percentage 88
59 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
29 Successful Long Passes 21

Defensive

1 Saves 7
8 Interceptions 9
16 Tackles 13

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 4
18 Total Crosses 14

Discipline

11 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Filippo Pittarello
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Argument / 1st Redcard
90+3'
Event
Fabio Abiuso
2nd Redcard
90+3'
90+2'
Event
Simone Pontisso
Review
Event
Fabio Abiuso
3rd Yellowcard
83'
Event
Mattia Finotto → Fabio Abiuso
9th Substitution
83'
Event
Gabriele Parlanti → Filippo Melegoni
8th Substitution
82'
79'
Event
Gabriele Alesi → Bruno Verrengia
7th Substitution
Event
Fabio Rispoli
Own Goal / 2nd Own Goal
76'
Event
Filippo Distefano → Tommaso Rubino
6th Substitution
69'
Event
Fabio Abiuso
Header / 3rd Goal
64'
55'
Event
Marco Pompetti → Mattia Liberali
5th Substitution
55'
Event
Filippo Pittarello → Patrick Nuamah
4th Substitution
Event
Niccolò Belloni → Jonas Rouhi
1st Substitution
46'
46'
Event
Ruggero Frosinini → Marco D'Alessandro
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Simone Pontisso → Jacopo Petriccione
3rd Substitution
1ST-HALF
39'
Event
Tommaso Cassandro
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Argument / 1st Yellowcard
20'
20'
Event
Mattia Liberali
Handball / 2nd Yellowcard
7'
Event
Julián Illanes
Header / 1st Own Goal
Event
Filippo Melegoni
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
3'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Catanzaro exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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