Cagliari vs Cremonese Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Serie A, Italy
Serie A
Cremonese
USC
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match between Cagliari and Cremonese is finished, ending with a full-time score of 1-0 to the home side. The teams went into half-time level at 0-0, but Cagliari scored once after the break to claim victory. Pre-match expectations positioned Cagliari with a 45.1% projection for a win compared to 25.2% for Cremonese, yet the outcome represented a significant deviation in favor of Cagliari. Although Cremonese were regarded as the stronger team coming into the fixture, they were unable to overcome the hosts. Cremonese dominated possession at 65% to Cagliari’s 35%, but failed to generate a decisive threat. No xG data is available to assess shot quality, and no red cards were issued to either side. The efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations, and the final result aligned with the pre-match projection despite the clear imbalance in territory. Cagliari’s clinical edge proved decisive in a contest where the away side controlled the ball for long periods but could not find the net.
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Cagliari showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Cagliari
Cremonese
Movement
Changes since opening
Cagliari
Cremonese
Team Power Ranking
i
13.92
14.26
Cagliari
Cremonese
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Cagliari
Cremonese
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Cagliari
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Cagliari
⚠ Proxy
Cagliari
Cremonese
Cagliari
Cremonese
Counter / Transition Attack & Defence
What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.
Cagliari
Cagliari
Cremonese
Cagliari
Cremonese
PRESSURE INDEX
Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.
- CAG had peak pressure around 49'.
- USC started the game with stronger pressure.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-04-12T00:03:49+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Cagliari
vs
Inter
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Fri, 17 Apr - 6:45 PM
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Cremonese
vs
Torino
League: Serie A
Kickoff: Sun, 19 Apr - 10:30 AM
Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
Manager ▼
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Match Commentary