Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Turf Moor Wed, 22 Apr - 7:00 PM
Premier League
Burnley BUR
Versus
Manchester City MCI
KICKOFF : Wed, 22 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

Manchester City head to Turf Moor as heavy favorites against a Burnley side languishing at the foot of the Premier League table. The hosts occupy 19th place with a poor start to the 2025/2026 campaign, failing to secure a win in their first six matches. In stark contrast, the visitors sit in second and have remained unbeaten, collecting three wins and three draws. Burnley drew away at Nottingham Forest in their last match, while City were held at home by Arsenal. The power scores underline the disparity with the away team holding a commanding 20-point advantage. At home, Burnley will look to make it difficult for their opponents, but overcoming such a strong Manchester City outfit represents a formidable task in this Regular Season encounter.

TL;DR

  • Structural: 19th vs 2nd at Turf Moor. Bottom dwellers host title challengers in league fixture.
  • Form: Burnley winless in six (D2 L4), City unbeaten (W3 D3). Both sides drew last time out.
  • Squad: City hold substantial squad quality edge over Burnley.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency metrics currently unavailable for analysis.
  • Transition: Visitors excel in transitional play against Burnley's struggling backline.
  • Set pieces: Low confidence set piece data; proxies indicate limited impact for either side.
  • xVariable: Power score gives City a 20 point edge.
  • Market: Burnley 7.8% (Δ+0%) | Draw 15.6% (Δ+0%) | Manchester City 76.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Burnley S. Parker
S. Parker
VS
Manchester City Josep Guardiola
Josep Guardiola
0.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
2.04
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
Brighton & Hove Albion Rank: L
Fulham Rank: L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: D
Everton Rank: L
Brentford Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Arsenal Rank: D
Chelsea Rank: W
West Ham United Rank: D
Nottingham Forest Rank: D
Leeds United Rank: W
Newcastle United Rank: W
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 3 - 19
19
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Burnley
7.79%
Draw
15.58%
Away Manchester City
76.63%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.23
34.23
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Burnley
Manchester City
Power Score
14.23
34.23
League Position
19
2
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Burnley — Opponent-weighted form score
Manchester City — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Burnley Manchester City

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 23 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Burnley BUR Home
23 matches
Manchester City MCI Away
Match Record
1
Wins
19
3
Draws
3
19
Losses
1
Goals
14
Goals Scored
74
74
Goals Conceded
14
-60
Goal Difference
+60
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:08:54+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Turf Moor
Capacity
22546
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Steve Meredith
Craig Taylor
Andrew Madley
Adam Herczeg

Squad

Referee : Andrew Madley

Squad ▼

32
Václav Hladký
Václav Hladký Goalkeeper
1
Martin Dúbravka
Martin Dúbravka Goalkeeper
13
Max Weiß
Max Weiß Goalkeeper
2
Kyle Andrew Walker
Kyle Andrew Walker Defender
6
Axel Tuanzebe
Axel Tuanzebe Defender
14
Connor Roberts
Connor Roberts Defender
4
Joe Worrall
Joe Worrall Defender
18
Hjalmar Ekdal
Hjalmar Ekdal Defender
36
Louis Jordan Beyer
Louis Jordan Beyer Defender
12
Bashir Humphreys
Bashir Humphreys Defender
3
Quilindschy Hartman
Quilindschy Hartman Defender
5
Maxime Esteve
Maxime Esteve Defender
23
Lucas Pires Silva
Lucas Pires Silva Defender
20
James Ward-Prowse
James Ward-Prowse Midfielder
24
Josh Cullen
Josh Cullen Midfielder
29
Josh Laurent
Josh Laurent Midfielder
16
Florentino Ibrain Morris Luís
Florentino Ibrain Morris Luís Midfielder
31
Mike Trésor Ndayishimiye
Mike Trésor Ndayishimiye Midfielder
28
Hannibal Mejbri
Hannibal Mejbri Midfielder
8
Chimuanya Ugochukwu
Chimuanya Ugochukwu Midfielder
35
Ashley Barnes
Ashley Barnes Attacker
7
Jacob Bruun Larsen
Jacob Bruun Larsen Attacker
10
Marcus Edwards
Marcus Edwards Attacker
19
Zian Flemming
Zian Flemming Attacker
9
Lyle Foster
Lyle Foster Attacker
27
Armando Broja
Armando Broja Attacker
25
Mohamed Zeki Amdouni
Mohamed Zeki Amdouni Attacker
17
Loum Tchaouna
Loum Tchaouna Attacker
11
Jaidon Anthony
Jaidon Anthony Attacker
Referee : Andrew Madley

Squad ▼

13
Marcus Bettinelli
Marcus Bettinelli Goalkeeper
25
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Gianluigi Donnarumma Goalkeeper
1
James Trafford
James Trafford Goalkeeper
5
John Stones
John Stones Defender
6
Nathan Aké
Nathan Aké Defender
3
Rúben Santos Gato Alves Dias
Rúben Santos Gato Alves Dias Defender
15
Marc Guehi
Marc Guehi Defender
21
Rayan Aït Nouri
Rayan Aït Nouri Defender
27
Matheus Luiz Nunes
Matheus Luiz Nunes Defender
24
Joško Gvardiol
Joško Gvardiol Defender
82
Rico Lewis
Rico Lewis Defender
68
Max Alleyne
Max Alleyne Defender
33
Nico O'Reilly
Nico O'Reilly Defender
45
Abdukodir Khusanov
Abdukodir Khusanov Defender
8
Mateo Kovačić
Mateo Kovačić Midfielder
20
Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva
Bernardo Mota Veiga de Carvalho e Silva Midfielder
16
Rodrigo Hernández Cascante
Rodrigo Hernández Cascante Midfielder
47
Philip Foden
Philip Foden Midfielder
4
Tijjani Reijnders
Tijjani Reijnders Midfielder
10
Mathis Ryan Cherki
Mathis Ryan Cherki Midfielder
14
Nicolás González Iglesias
Nicolás González Iglesias Midfielder
41
Sverre Halseth Nypan
Sverre Halseth Nypan Midfielder
9
Erling Håland
Erling Håland Attacker
7
Omar Marmoush
Omar Marmoush Attacker
42
Antoine Semenyo
Antoine Semenyo Attacker
11
Jeremy Doku
Jeremy Doku Attacker
26
Sávio Moreira de Oliveira
Sávio Moreira de Oliveira Attacker

CONCLUSION

Manchester City are clear favorites to take all three points from this encounter given their superior form and squad depth. Burnley will need to be at their defensive best to contain the visitors' attacking talents and hope for a set-piece opportunity or counter-attack to snatch something from the game. The visitors' unbeaten run looks set to continue as they aim to keep pace with the leaders. While draws have featured in both teams' recent results, a victory for the away side appears the most likely outcome here. Burnley must improve quickly if they are to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.

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