Blackburn Rovers vs Portsmouth Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Championship, England
Ewood Park Sat, 7 Mar - 12:30 PM
Championship
Blackburn Rovers BBR
1 – 1
Portsmouth PTM
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 12:30 PM
Hayden Carter - 90+3'
Goal
|
Goal
Connor Ogilvie - 84'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Blackburn Rovers 1–1 Portsmouth. The match ended in a draw. Portsmouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 43%–57%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Portsmouth showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Fitch
C. Fitch
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Nield
T. Nield
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
T. Kirk
T. Kirk
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
A. Dallison
A. Dallison
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 5.36
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.09
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.09
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0
Blackburn Rovers M. O'Neill
M. O'Neill
VS
Portsmouth J. Mousinho
J. Mousinho
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.08
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Swansea City Rank: L
Ipswich Town Rank: L
Charlton Athletic Rank: D
Wrexham Rank: L
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: D
Middlesbrough Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
West Bromwich Albion Rank: W
Southampton Rank: D
Watford Rank: D
Sheffield Wednesday Rank: W
Bristol City Rank: L
Charlton Athletic Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 2 - 6
6

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Blackburn Rovers
35.78%
Draw
30.49%
Away Portsmouth
33.73%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
36.11
38.1
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Blackburn Rovers
Portsmouth
Power Score
36.11
38.1
League Position
20
19
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Blackburn Rovers — Opponent-weighted form score
Portsmouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Blackburn Rovers Portsmouth

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Blackburn Rovers

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Portsmouth

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Blackburn Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portsmouth
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
28.72
27.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
27.98
28.72
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Blackburn Rovers +0.07 Efficiency Index
vs
Portsmouth -0.07 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Blackburn Rovers
Portsmouth
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Blackburn Rovers ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Portsmouth
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Blackburn Rovers Portsmouth
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Blackburn Rovers Portsmouth
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Blackburn Rovers
Portsmouth
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Blackburn Rovers BBR Home
3 matches
Portsmouth PTM Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
4
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
4
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:02:10+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 12:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Championship, England
Stadium
Ewood Park
Capacity
31367
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Carl Fitch
Tom Nield
Thomas Kirk
Andrew Dallison

Statistics

Possession
BBR
44%
PTM
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
1 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 8
47 Dangerous attacks 39
43 Possession 57
4 Corners 5
6 Free kicks 8
2 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

25 Throwins 17
12 Goal Kicks 9
6 Successful Dribbles 7
24 Successful Headers 38
42 Ball Safe 50
2 Goal Attempts 5
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
9 Dribble Attempts 15
4 Substitutions 4
1 Assists 1

Attacking

92 Attacks 108
1 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

257 Successful Passes 400
71 Long Passes 93
24 Successful Long Passes 46
34 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
71 Successful Passes Percentage 80
364 Passes 500
7 Key Passes 11

Defensive

7 Interceptions 8
13 Tackles 6

Build-up

21 Total Crosses 16
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

8 Fouls 6
3 Offsides 3

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Hayden Carter
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
90+4'
Event
Hayden Carter
Header / 2nd Goal
90+3'
84'
Event
Connor Ogilvie
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
Event
Eiran Cashin
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
83'
81'
Event
Harvey Blair → Gustavo Caballero
7th Substitution
81'
Event
Jacob Brown → Colby Bishop
8th Substitution
Event
Dion De Neve → Yuri Ribeiro
6th Substitution
75'
Event
Kristi Montgomery → Taylor Gardner-Hickman
5th Substitution
75'
70'
Event
Adrian Segecic → Conor Chaplin
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Conor Shaughnessy → Regan Poole
3rd Substitution
Event
Andri Gudjohnsen → Yuki Ohashi
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Moussa Baradji → Adam Forshaw
1st Substitution
62'

Match Commentary

90
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! It's now Blackburn Rovers 1, Portsmouth 1. Hayden Carter scores for Blackburn Rovers, heading the ball from the center of the box into the bottom left corner. The assist came from Ryoya Morishita, who delivered a precise cross.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with the match finishing in a 1-1 draw between Blackburn Rovers and Portsmouth.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Conor Shaughnessy from Portsmouth took a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area but it went wide to the left. The cross was provided by Ebou Adams.
90
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Hayden Carter of Blackburn Rovers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
90
Update Update
Hayden Carter from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be four minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita of Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
90
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
89
Update Update
Jacob Brown from Portsmouth committed a foul.
89
Update Update
Opportunity gone begging. Eiran Cashin of Blackburn Rovers attempted a header from the middle of the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The cross was delivered by Ryan Alebiosu.
86
Update Update
Dion De Neve from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in an attacking position.
86
Corner Corner
Goal! Portsmouth takes the lead against Blackburn Rovers, making it 1-0. Connor Ogilvie scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the penalty area, sending the ball into the top right corner of the net. The assist comes from Jacob Brown, who set him up with a header.
84
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Portsmouth takes the lead against Blackburn Rovers, making it 1-0. Connor Ogilvie scores with a left-footed shot from the center of the box, finding the top right corner of the net. The assist came from Jacob Brown, who set him up with a header.
84
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Eiran Cashin of Blackburn Rovers has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
83
Update Update
Offside call against Portsmouth. Jacob Brown has been caught in an offside position.
83
Update Update
Eiran Cashin from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
83
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth has earned a free kick on the right flank.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Jacob Brown replaces Colby Bishop.
81
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Harvey Blair comes on to replace Gustavo Caballero.
81
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Conor Shaughnessy allowed the ball to go out.
79
Corner Corner
Close call! Terry Devlin from Portsmouth took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it just sailed past the top right corner. The assist came from Marlon Pack.
78
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
77
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth has earned a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Update Update
Kristi Montgomery from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
77
Update Update
Marlon Pack from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Kristi Montgomery is coming on to replace Taylor Gardner-Hickman.
75
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Dion De Neve is coming on to replace Yuri Ribeiro.
72
Update Update
Colby Bishop from Portsmouth committed a foul.
72
Update Update
Sean McLoughlin from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
71
Update Update
Andri Gudjohnsen from Blackburn Rovers has committed a foul.
71
Update Update
Conor Shaughnessy from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
70
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Zak Swanson from Portsmouth took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area following a corner, but it sailed over the goal.
70
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Adrian Segecic comes on to replace Conor Chaplin.
69
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Sean McLoughlin allowed the ball to go out.
69
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Millenic Alli from Portsmouth attempts a right-footed strike from over 35 yards, but it's blocked. The assist came from Zak Swanson.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Portsmouth: Conor Shaughnessy is coming on to replace Regan Poole due to an injury.
66
Update Update
Match is currently on hold due to an injury to Regan Poole from Portsmouth.
66
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth fires a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Gustavo Caballero.
66
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
63
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Andri Gudjohnsen comes on to replace Yuki Ohashi.
62
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Blackburn Rovers: Moussa Baradji comes on to replace Adam Forshaw.
61
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Yuri Ribeiro of Blackburn Rovers attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it narrowly missed the target after a quick counterattack.
58
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
58
Update Update
Ryan Alebiosu commits a foul against Blackburn Rovers.
58
Update Update
Offside call against Portsmouth. Colby Bishop is caught offside.
56
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
56
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ebou Adams.
53
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Taylor Gardner-Hickman from Blackburn Rovers took a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
52
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after a defensive play by Gustavo Caballero.
51
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Yuki Ohashi of Blackburn Rovers attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area that narrowly missed the top right corner. The assist came from Taylor Gardner-Hickman.
50
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
50
Update Update
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth committed a foul.
48
Update Update
Offside call against Portsmouth. Conor Chaplin has been caught in an offside position.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with the score tied at Blackburn Rovers 0, Portsmouth 0.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be one minute of stoppage time.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score still tied at Blackburn Rovers 0, Portsmouth 0.
42
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Terry Devlin from Portsmouth took a shot with his right foot from outside the penalty area, but it sailed high and to the right of the goal. The assist came from Millenic Alli.
38
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Ebou Adams from Portsmouth.
38
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
37
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Mathias Jørgensen has been caught in an offside position.
35
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Yuki Ohashi has been flagged for being in an offside position.
31
Attempt Attempt
Eiran Cashin from Blackburn Rovers had a great opportunity but couldn't convert it, firing a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area that went off target.
28
Update Update
Taylor Gardner-Hickman of Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
28
Update Update
Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth committed a foul.
27
Attempt Attempt
Ebou Adams from Portsmouth had a great opportunity but his right-footed shot from outside the penalty area narrowly missed the target. The assist came from Marlon Pack.
26
Update Update
Offside call against Blackburn Rovers. Mathias Jørgensen has been flagged for being offside.
22
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Conor Chaplin from Portsmouth attempted a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Colby Bishop.
18
Update Update
Ebou Adams committed a foul on a Portsmouth player.
18
Update Update
Adam Forshaw from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Ryoya Morishita from Blackburn Rovers has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
18
Update Update
Millenic Alli from Portsmouth committed a foul.
15
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers fired a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Ryoya Morishita, who set him up with a header.
12
Update Update
A header attempt from Marlon Pack of Portsmouth is thwarted as it's blocked, coming from the right side of the six-yard area.
12
Corner Corner
Opportunity wasted. Ebou Adams from Portsmouth attempted a header from the right side of the six-yard box following a corner kick.
11
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Eiran Cashin allowed the ball to go out.
10
Update Update
Terry Devlin from Portsmouth earned a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Zak Swanson allowed the ball to go out.
10
Update Update
Yuki Ohashi from Blackburn Rovers committed a foul.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Terry Devlin allowed the ball to go out.
9
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Blackburn Rovers after Zak Swanson allowed the ball to go out.
5
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Gustavo Caballero from Portsmouth took a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it sailed over the crossbar following a corner kick.
5
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Portsmouth after Ryan Alebiosu allowed it to go out.
3
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered! Yuki Ohashi of Blackburn Rovers fired a left-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but it sailed over the bar. The chance came after a quick counterattack, with Ryoya Morishita providing the assist through a well-placed cross.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Portsmouth exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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