Basel vs Grasshopper Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
St. Jakob-Park
Fri, 6 Mar - 2:11 PM
Super League
Basel
BAS
1
0
0
Grasshopper
GRA
Full Time
Fri, 6 Mar
2:11 PM
Bénie Traoré - 51'
|
|
Amir Abrashi 90+5'
STANDINGS
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
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| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation
Data last checked: Apr 16
CONTEXT
The match between Basel and Grasshopper has officially finished, with Basel securing a 1-0 victory at full-time. Following an evenly contested, goalless first half, the home side eventually broke the deadlock. This outcome aligned with the pre-match market, which rightly identified Basel as the stronger team. Ball possession was incredibly tight throughout the contest, with Basel holding a slight edge at 51% compared to Grasshopper's 49%. Because expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, it cannot be determined whether the final outcome was strictly consistent with the underlying chance quality. A defining moment in the fixture was a red card issued to Grasshopper. This dismissal created a red card distortion that heavily impacted second-half adjustments and defensive structures. Even with pre-match market indicators sitting at an absolute baseline of zero, Basel demonstrated a significant performance deviation to ensure they captured the win. Furthermore, the overall efficiency shift remained entirely in line with expectations. Despite a grinding negative efficiency metric for the hosts (-1.25) compared to the visitors (1.25), Basel successfully capitalized on their numerical advantage to seal the narrow home victory.
TL;DR
-
Structural deviation: Basel showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
-
Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
-
xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
-
Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
-
xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
-
Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
-
Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)
Quality vs Volume
Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11
Open Play vs Set Play
Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
ℹ️
Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
L. Cibelli
Referee
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
24.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.8
I. Jancevski
2nd Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
24.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.8
N. Gianforte
4th Official
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
24.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.8
M. Sbrissa
1st Assistant
•
25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee
0.52
League Avg
24.4
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee
0.12
League Avg
5
Red Cards / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.4
Penalties / Match
Referee
0
League Avg
0.8
S. Lichtsteiner
VS
G. Scheiblehner
1.59
Avg Points / Game
(Last 100 Matches)
0.95
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Thun
Rank:
L
Zürich
Rank:
W
Sion
Rank:
D
Servette
Rank:
D
Luzern
Rank:
W
Lausanne Sport
Rank:
D
Avg Points / Game
(Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Lugano
Rank:
W
Zürich
Rank:
L
St. Gallen
Rank:
D
Luzern
Rank:
L
Young Boys
Rank:
D
Lugano
Rank:
D
37
Head to Head
(Wins - Draws - Losses)
37 - 19 - 17
17
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Basel
54.25%
Draw
24.95%
Grasshopper
20.8%
Team Power Ranking
iWhat is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
54.76
28.57
0 (Weakest)
100 (Strongest)
Metric
Basel
Grasshopper
Power Score
54.76
28.57
League Position
4
11
Global Rank
-
-
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
–
vs
Basel
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Grasshopper
—
Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts)
Draw (1 pt)
Loss (0 pts)
Basel Grasshopper
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
–
vs
Loading…
Basel
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Grasshopper
Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —
Own half density —
vs season average —
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Basel
⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy
Grasshopper
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
24.90
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.45
Combined Efficiency Index
Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3
0
3
Basel
-1.18
Efficiency Index
vs
Grasshopper
+1.18
Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Basel
Grasshopper
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Basel
vs
Grasshopper
Created
Set-piece attacking threat
Basel
Grasshopper
Set-piece xG Share
Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
Goals per Match
Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xG)
Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00
vs
+0.00
Conceded
Set-piece defensive exposure
Basel
Grasshopper
Set-piece xGA Share
Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
Conceded per Match
Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00
0.00
vs Expected (xGA)
Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
—
vs
—
Basel
Grasshopper
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 17 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Basel
BAS
Home
17
matches
Grasshopper
GRA
Away
Match Record
8
Wins
6
3
Draws
3
6
Losses
8
Goals
28
Goals Scored
19
19
Goals Conceded
28
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0
Data last updated: 2026-03-06T14:12:04+00:00
TEAM FORMATION
No team formation data available.
General Information
Date & Time
Mar 06, 2026, 02:11 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super League, Switzerland
Stadium
St. Jakob-Park
Capacity
37994
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Luca Cibelli
Ilco Jancevski
Nico Gianforte
Matthias Sbrissa
Statistics
Possession
BAS
50%
GRA
50%
Top Statistics
1
Goals
0
3
Big Chances Created
1
4
Shots
6
34
Dangerous attacks
47
51
Possession
49
4
Corners
9
12
Free kicks
6
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
1
Match Overview
90
Ball Safe
78
10
Successful Dribbles
5
53
Successful Dribbles Percentage
22
32
Throwins
21
19
Dribble Attempts
23
8
Goal Kicks
4
5
Substitutions
4
7
Goal Attempts
9
2
Injuries
1
1
Assists
0
1
Hit Woodwork
0
Attacking
85
Attacks
109
2
Big Chances Missed
1
Possession
81
Successful Passes Percentage
82
356
Successful Passes
342
441
Passes
419
55
Long Passes
57
38
Successful Long Passes Percentage
47
21
Successful Long Passes
27
7
Key Passes
12
Defensive
14
Interceptions
19
30
Tackles
25
5
Saves
3
Build-up
17
Total Crosses
21
4
Accurate Crosses
7
Discipline
8
Fouls
11
1
Offsides
0
Events
2ND-HALF
Koba Koindredi
Off the ball foul / 5th Yellowcard
90+5'
90+5'
Amir Abrashi
Violent conduct / 1st Redcard
Moussa Cissé
Time wasting / 3rd Yellowcard
90+4'
90+4'
Mouhamed El Bachir Ngom
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Albian Ajeti → Giacomo Koloto
9th Substitution
85'
82'
Óscar Clemente Mues → Jonathan Asp Jensen
8th Substitution
75'
Michael Frey
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
74'
Luka Mikulić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
74'
Stephan Lichtsteiner
6th Yellowcard
73'
Samuel Krasniqi → Dirk Abels
7th Substitution
Koba Koindredi → Léo Leroy
6th Substitution
66'
Julien Duranville → Bénie Traoré
5th Substitution
66'
61'
Amir Abrashi → Imourane Hassane
3rd Substitution
61'
Felix Emmanuel Tsimba → Luke Plange
4th Substitution
Bénie Traoré
Header / 1st Goal
51'
Ibrahim Salah → Xherdan Shaqiri
2nd Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
Kevin Rüegg → Keigo Tsunemoto
1st Substitution
27'
CONCLUSION
Structural assessment: Basel exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.