Baltika Kaliningrad vs Sochi Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 Sat, 21 Mar - 5:30 PM
Premier League
Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad
4 Winner 0
Sochi Sochi
Full Time Sat, 21 Mar 5:30 PM
Round 22 Regular Season
Sergey Volkov - 5' (Own Goal)
Aleksandr Filin - 12'
Maksim Petrov - 84' (P)
Mikhail Ryadno - 87'
Goal
|
|
Red Card Kirill Zaika 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Baltika Kaliningrad and Sochi is officially finished, with Baltika securing a commanding 4-0 full-time victory. The home side established their dominance early on, taking a comfortable 2-0 lead into the half-time break. This decisive result represented a significant deviation in favor of Baltika Kaliningrad compared to baseline pre-match expectations. However, the final outcome ultimately aligned with the broader pre-match market positioning them as the stronger side, despite neutral zero-value market data. In terms of general play, possession was fairly balanced. Baltika Kaliningrad held a slight edge on the ball with 52%, leaving Sochi with 48%. Expected goals (xG) figures were completely unavailable for this fixture, meaning it is impossible to determine if the outcome was strictly consistent with the underlying xG metrics. Even so, the overall efficiency shifts remained firmly in line with the final result. The match's flow was profoundly impacted by a crucial disciplinary event. Sochi suffered an away red card, reducing them to ten men. This dismissal caused notable second-half adjustments and clear red card distortion, entirely stifling any chance of a Sochi comeback while allowing Baltika Kaliningrad to comfortably dictate the remainder of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Baltika Kaliningrad showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Baltika Kaliningrad Y. Nagaytsev
Y. Nagaytsev
VS
Sochi I. Osinkin
I. Osinkin
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.62
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: 73 W
Rostov Rank: 60 D
Zenit Rank: 80 L
Krylya Sovetov Rank: 56 W
Spartak Moskva Rank: 73 W
Orenburg Rank: 52 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Krasnodar Rank: 75 L
FK Nizjni Novgorod Rank: 49 L
Spartak Moskva Rank: 72 L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: 72 L
Dynamo Makhachkala Rank: 57 D
Akron Rank: 55 L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Baltika Kaliningrad
0%
Draw
0%
Away Sochi
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.66
43.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Baltika Kaliningrad
Sochi
Power Score
56.66
43.88
League Position
4
16
Global Rank
280
815

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Baltika Kaliningrad — Opponent-weighted form score
Sochi — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Baltika Kaliningrad

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Sochi

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.42
13.65
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.65
39.42
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Baltika Kaliningrad +2.85 Efficiency Index
vs
Sochi -2.85 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Sochi
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Baltika Kaliningrad ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Sochi
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Baltika Kaliningrad Sochi
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Baltika Kaliningrad
Sochi
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Baltika Kaliningrad Baltika Kaliningrad Home
3 matches
Sochi Sochi Away
Match Record
1
Wins
1
1
Draws
1
1
Losses
1
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:27+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-4-1
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
M. Borisko
Russia
67 M. Borisko
M. Beveev
Russia
23 M. Beveev
S. Varatynov
Russia
2 S. Varatynov
A. Filin
Russia
25 (C) A. Filin
N. Gassama
France
4 N. Gassama
E. Ćivić
Substitution
Bosnia and Herzegovina
77 E. Ćivić
M. Petrov
Substitution
Russia
73 M. Petrov
N. Titkov
Substitution
Russia
22 N. Titkov
I. Petrov
Russia
10 I. Petrov
T. Yenne
Substitution
Nigeria
15 T. Yenne
B. Gil Hurtado
Substitution
El Salvador
91 B. Gil Hurtado
A. Degtev
Russia
35 A. Degtev
A. Makarchuk
Russia
17 A. Makarchuk
A. Soldatenkov
Russia
3 A. Soldatenkov
V. Litvinov
Russia
4 V. Litvinov
S. Volkov
Substitution
Russia
82 S. Volkov
K. Zaika
Russia
27 (C) K. Zaika
A. Zinkovskiy
Substitution
Russia
7 A. Zinkovskiy
A. Kovalenko
Russia
19 A. Kovalenko
M. Mukhin
Substitution
Russia
16 M. Mukhin
M. Kramarič
Substitution
Slovenia
10 M. Kramarič
Z. Fedorov
Substitution
Russia
9 Z. Fedorov

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 21, 2026, 05:30 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 22 · Regular Season
Stadium
Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1
Capacity
35212
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Stanislav Matveev
Igor Demeshko
Dmitri Malikov
Matvey Zaika

Statistics

Possession
Baltika Kaliningrad
53%
Sochi
47%

Top Statistics

4 Goals 0
6 Big Chances Created 0
14 Shots 3
50 Dangerous attacks 31
52 Possession 48
1 Corners 1
19 Free kicks 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 0
7 Successful Dribbles 8
15 Dribble Attempts 17
47 Successful Dribbles Percentage 47
22 Successful Headers 22
22 Throwins 17
1 Goal Kicks 13
2 Penalties 0
87 Ball Safe 93
1 Injuries 3
5 Substitutions 5
12 Goal Attempts 5

Attacking

103 Attacks 85
3 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

71 Successful Passes Percentage 65
405 Passes 376
43 Successful Long Passes Percentage 39
289 Successful Passes 246
77 Long Passes 93
33 Successful Long Passes 36

Defensive

21 Tackles 19
8 Interceptions 13
1 Saves 3

Build-up

11 Total Crosses 8
4 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

16 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 2

Lineup

Referee : Stanislav Matveev

Starting XI ▼

67
Maksim Borisko
Maksim Borisko Goalkeeper
7.17
2
S. Varatynov
S. Varatynov Defender
6.45
4
Nathan Gassama
Nathan Gassama Defender
7.9
23
Mingiyan Beveev
Mingiyan Beveev Defender
6.81
25
Aleksandr Filin
Aleksandr Filin (C) Defender
7.78
77
E. Ćivić
E. Ćivić Defender
6.77
69
I. Manelov
I. Manelov
Attacker56'
6.7
10
Ilya Petrov
Ilya Petrov Midfielder
7.18
15
T. Yenne
T. Yenne Midfielder
6.29
68
Mikhail Ryadno
Mikhail Ryadno
Defender56'
7.18
22
Nikolai Titkov
Nikolai Titkov Midfielder
6.89
26
Ivan Belikov
Ivan Belikov
Defender65'
6.45
73
Maksim Petrov
Maksim Petrov Midfielder
7.62
21
Eduardo Anderson
Eduardo Anderson
Defender89'
91
B. Gil
B. Gil Attacker
6.54
90
Chinonso Offor
Chinonso Offor
Attacker65'
6.7
Referee : Stanislav Matveev

Starting XI ▼

35
Aleksandr Degtev
Aleksandr Degtev Goalkeeper
6.28
3
A. Soldatenkov
A. Soldatenkov Defender
6.52
4
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Vyacheslav Litvinov Defender
6.29
17
Artem Makarchuk
Artem Makarchuk Defender
5.89
27
Kirill Zaika
Kirill Zaika (C) Defender
6.26
82
Sergey Volkov
Sergey Volkov Defender
6.47
45
François Kamano
François Kamano
Attacker61'
6.64
7
Anton Zinkovskiy
Anton Zinkovskiy Midfielder
5.95
66
Aleksandr Metsiev
Aleksandr Metsiev
Midfielder89'
6.5
10
Martin Kramaric
Martin Kramaric Midfielder
5.79
11
Pavel Meleshin
Pavel Meleshin
Attacker78'
6.36
16
Maksim Mukhin
Maksim Mukhin Midfielder
6.58
18
Artem Korneev
Artem Korneev
Midfielder88'
19
A. Kovalenko
A. Kovalenko Midfielder
6.22
9
Zakhar Fedorov
Zakhar Fedorov Attacker
6.95
8
Mikhail Ignatov
Mikhail Ignatov
Midfielder78'
6.36

Events

2ND-HALF
90+8'
Event
Kirill Zaika
Red card confirmed
90+5'
Event
Kirill Zaika
Professional foul last man / 1st Redcard
Event
Eduardo Anderson → Maksim Petrov
9th Substitution
89'
89'
Event
Aleksandr Metsiev → Anton Zinkovskiy
10th Substitution
88'
Event
Artem Korneev → Maksim Mukhin
8th Substitution
Event
Mikhail Ryadno
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
87'
Event
Maksim Petrov
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
84'
Event
Chinonso Offor
Penalty awarded
83'
83'
Event
Vyacheslav Litvinov
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Pavel Meleshin → Martin Kramaric
7th Substitution
78'
Event
Mikhail Ignatov → Zakhar Fedorov
6th Substitution
Event
Mingiyan Beveev
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
73'
Event
Chinonso Offor → B. Gil
5th Substitution
65'
Event
Ivan Belikov → Nikolai Titkov
4th Substitution
65'
61'
Event
François Kamano → Sergey Volkov
3rd Substitution
Event
Mikhail Ryadno → T. Yenne
2nd Substitution
56'
Event
I. Manelov → E. Ćivić
1st Substitution
56'
1ST-HALF
Event
Aleksandr Filin
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
Event
E. Ćivić
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
40'
Event
Aleksandr Filin
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
12'
Event
Sergey Volkov
Own Goal / 1st Own Goal
5'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Baltika Kaliningrad exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews