Avellino vs Südtirol Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Wed, 18 Mar - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Avellino AVE
3 Winner 2
Südtirol SUD
Full Time Wed, 18 Mar 7:00 PM
Cosimo Patierno - 24'
Michele Besaggio - 72'
Armando Izzo - 80'
Goal
|
Goal
Daniele Casiraghi - 52' (P)
Emanuele Pecorino - 75'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Avellino 3–2 Südtirol. The result saw Avellino take the points. Avellino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 57%–43%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Avellino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Avellino 39.5% (Δ+0%) | Draw 33.8% (Δ+0%) | Südtirol 26.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
VS
Südtirol F. Castori
F. Castori
1.04
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
0.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Venezia Rank: 68 L
Juve Stabia Rank: 56 D
Reggiana Rank: 48 D
Pescara Rank: 48 L
Frosinone Rank: 64 L
Monza Rank: 65 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Reggiana Rank: 51 W
Venezia Rank: 69 D
Palermo Rank: 62 L
Bari 1908 Rank: 50 W
Monza Rank: 65 D
Carrarese Rank: 53 D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Avellino
39.45%
Draw
33.76%
Away Südtirol
26.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
49.94
54.97
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Avellino
Südtirol
Power Score
49.94
54.97
League Position
9
10
Global Rank
689
601

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Südtirol — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Südtirol

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Südtirol

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
16.75
29.19
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.19
16.75
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Avellino -1.21 Efficiency Index
vs
Südtirol +1.21 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Südtirol
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Südtirol
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Avellino Südtirol
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Avellino Südtirol
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Südtirol
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home
1 matches
Südtirol SUD Away
Match Record
1
Wins
0
0
Draws
0
0
Losses
1
Goals
1
Goals Scored
0
0
Goals Conceded
1
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-19T00:05:35+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-1-2
Match Formation 3-5-2
Pitch
G. Daffara
Italy
30 G. Daffara
T. Cancellotti
Italy
29 T. Cancellotti
L. Šimić
Croatia
44 L. Šimić
A. Izzo
Italy
4 A. Izzo
A. Fontanarosa
Italy
63 A. Fontanarosa
D. Sounas
Greece
24 D. Sounas
L. Palmiero
Italy
6 L. Palmiero
M. Besaggio
Substitution
Italy
39 M. Besaggio
M. Palumbo
Substitution
Norway
20 M. Palumbo
C. Patierno
Substitution
Italy
9 C. Patierno
T. Biasci
Substitution
Italy
14 T. Biasci
M. Adamonis
Lithuania
31 M. Adamonis
A. Masiello
Substitution
Italy
5 A. Masiello
F. Bordon
Substitution
Brazil
3 F. Bordon
F. Veseli
Albania
34 F. Veseli
F. Davi
Italy
23 F. Davi
M. Frigerio
Substitution
Italy
26 M. Frigerio
D. Črnigoj
Substitution
Slovenia
89 D. Črnigoj
S. Tronchin
Italy
18 S. Tronchin
H. El Kaouakibi
Morocco
94 H. El Kaouakibi
R. Tonin
Substitution
Italy
11 R. Tonin
S. Merkaj
Albania
33 S. Merkaj

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 18, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Capacity
26542
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Simone Galipò

Statistics

Possession
AVE
57%
SUD
43%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 2
4 Big Chances Created 2
3 Shots 5
31 Dangerous attacks 51
57 Possession 43
2 Corners 2
28 Free kicks 13
5 Yellow Cards 6

Match Overview

110 Ball Safe 62
25 Throwins 27
6 Goal Kicks 4
15 Dribble Attempts 14
3 Assists 1
6 Successful Dribbles 1
0 Penalties 1
4 Substitutions 5
40 Successful Dribbles Percentage 7
5 Goal Attempts 7

Attacking

85 Attacks 106
1 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

87 Long Passes 55
267 Successful Passes 166
6 Key Passes 7
370 Passes 268
72 Successful Passes Percentage 62
36 Successful Long Passes 18
41 Successful Long Passes Percentage 33

Defensive

11 Interceptions 9
20 Tackles 14
1 Saves 0

Build-up

9 Total Crosses 14
2 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

13 Fouls 28
2 Offsides 0

Lineup

Referee : Simone Galipò

Starting XI ▼

30
Giovanni Daffara
Giovanni Daffara Goalkeeper
4
Armando Izzo
Armando Izzo Defender
29
Tommaso Cancellotti
Tommaso Cancellotti Defender
44
Lorenco Simic
Lorenco Simic Defender
63
Alessandro Fontanarosa
Alessandro Fontanarosa Defender
6
Luca Palmiero
Luca Palmiero Midfielder
20
Martin Palumbo
Martin Palumbo Midfielder
27
Andréa Le Borgne
Andréa Le Borgne
Midfielder82'
24
Dimitrios Sounas
Dimitrios Sounas Midfielder
39
Michele Besaggio
Michele Besaggio Midfielder
21
Marco Armellino
Marco Armellino
Midfielder90+3'
9
Cosimo Patierno
Cosimo Patierno Attacker
10
Raffaele Russo
Raffaele Russo
Attacker77'
14
Tommaso Biasci
Tommaso Biasci Attacker
7
Gennaro Tutino
Gennaro Tutino
Attacker82'
Referee : Simone Galipò

Starting XI ▼

31
Marius Adamonis
Marius Adamonis Goalkeeper
3
Filipe Bordon
Filipe Bordon Defender
17
Daniele Casiraghi
Daniele Casiraghi
Midfielder46'
5
Andrea Masiello
Andrea Masiello Defender
4
Davide Mancini
Davide Mancini
Defender73'
34
Frédéric Veseli
Frédéric Veseli Defender
18
Simone Tronchin
Simone Tronchin Midfielder
23
Federico Davi
Federico Davi Midfielder
26
Marco Frigerio
Marco Frigerio Midfielder
99
Simone Verdi
Simone Verdi
Midfielder84'
89
Domen Črnigoj
Domen Črnigoj Midfielder
6
Jacopo Martini
Jacopo Martini
Midfielder71'
94
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Hamza El Kaouakibi Midfielder
11
Riccardo Tonin
Riccardo Tonin Attacker
9
Emanuele Pecorino
Emanuele Pecorino
Attacker46'
33
Silvio Merkaj
Silvio Merkaj Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
Simone Tronchin
Foul / 11th Yellowcard
Event
Marco Armellino → Michele Besaggio
9th Substitution
90+3'
84'
Event
Simone Verdi → Marco Frigerio
8th Substitution
Event
Andréa Le Borgne → Martin Palumbo
6th Substitution
82'
Event
Gennaro Tutino → Tommaso Biasci
7th Substitution
82'
Event
Armando Izzo
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
80'
80'
Event
Frédéric Veseli
Argument / 10th Yellowcard
Event
Raffaele Russo → Cosimo Patierno
5th Substitution
77'
75'
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Header / 3rd Goal
73'
Event
Davide Mancini → Andrea Masiello
4th Substitution
Event
Michele Besaggio
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
72'
71'
Event
Jacopo Martini → Domen Črnigoj
3rd Substitution
62'
Event
Emanuele Pecorino
Foul / 9th Yellowcard
Event
Luca Palmiero
Handball / 8th Yellowcard
58'
Event
Cosimo Patierno
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
56'
Event
Lorenco Simic
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
52'
52'
Event
Daniele Casiraghi
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
50'
Event
Daniele Casiraghi
Penalty awarded
Event
Armando Izzo
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
47'
47'
Event
Hamza El Kaouakibi
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
Event
Tommaso Cancellotti
Handball / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
46'
Event
Emanuele Pecorino → Riccardo Tonin
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Daniele Casiraghi → Filipe Bordon
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
32'
Event
Marius Adamonis
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Cosimo Patierno
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
24'
1'
Event
Filipe Bordon
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1'
Event
12th Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Avellino exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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