Avellino vs Calcio Padova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi Sat, 7 Mar - 2:00 PM
Serie B
Avellino AVE
1 Winner 0
Calcio Padova PAD
Full Time Sat, 7 Mar 2:00 PM
Raffaele Russo - 90+2'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Avellino 1–0 Calcio Padova. The result saw Avellino take the points. Avellino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 62%–38%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Avellino showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Perenzoni
D. Perenzoni
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
M. Belsanti
M. Belsanti
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
E. Scarpa
E. Scarpa
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
D. Castellone
D. Castellone
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 11.17
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.65
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.26
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.13
Avellino D. Ballardini
D. Ballardini
VS
Calcio Padova M. Andreoletti
M. Andreoletti
1.16
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.28
0.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Reggiana Rank: D
Pescara Rank: L
Frosinone Rank: L
Monza Rank: L
Cesena Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Modena Rank: W
Bari 1908 Rank: D
Sampdoria Rank: L
Carrarese Rank: W
Juve Stabia Rank: D
Monza Rank: L
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 1 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Avellino
44.8%
Draw
32.18%
Away Calcio Padova
23.02%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks’ model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
40.4
41.21
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Avellino
Calcio Padova
Power Score
40.4
41.21
League Position
11
10
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Avellino — Opponent-weighted form score
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Avellino Calcio Padova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Avellino

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
38.47
18.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
18.95
38.47
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Avellino +1.90 Efficiency Index
vs
Calcio Padova -1.90 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Calcio Padova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Avellino ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Avellino Calcio Padova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Avellino Calcio Padova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Avellino
Calcio Padova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Avellino AVE Home
1 matches
Calcio Padova PAD Away
Match Record
0
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
0
Goals
2
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
2
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-08T00:04:45+00:00

TEAM FORMATION

No team formation data available.

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 07, 2026, 02:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Capacity
26542
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Daniele Perenzoni
Marco Belsanti
Eugenio Scarpa
Domenico Castellone

Statistics

Possession
AVE
62%
PAD
38%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 1
6 Shots 3
97 Dangerous attacks 24
62 Possession 38
9 Corners 3
16 Free kicks 12
3 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

1 Hit Woodwork 1
23 Throwins 15
10 Successful Dribbles 1
50 Ball Safe 65
16 Goal Attempts 5
7 Goal Kicks 9
22 Dribble Attempts 8
3 Substitutions 6
0 Injuries 2
45 Successful Dribbles Percentage 13
1 Assists 0

Attacking

122 Attacks 82
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

42 Successful Long Passes 24
85 Successful Passes Percentage 77
519 Passes 324
439 Successful Passes 248
66 Successful Long Passes Percentage 42
64 Long Passes 57
14 Key Passes 5

Defensive

6 Interceptions 12
1 Saves 4
15 Tackles 16

Build-up

44 Total Crosses 10
7 Accurate Crosses 2

Discipline

9 Fouls 17
3 Offsides 0

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Raffaele Russo
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
90+2'
82'
Event
Kevin Varas → Kevin Lasagna
8th Substitution
Event
Patrick Enrici → Armando Izzo
6th Substitution
79'
Event
Roberto Insigne → Dimitrios Sounas
7th Substitution
79'
Event
Raffaele Russo → Cosimo Patierno
5th Substitution
66'
64'
Event
Luca Di Maggio
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
54'
Event
Lorenzo Villa
Argument / 5th Yellowcard
53'
Event
Christian Pastina
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Luca Palmiero
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
49'
46'
Event
Luca Di Maggio → Cristian Buonaiuto
3rd Substitution
46'
Event
Giovanni Giunti → Lorenzo Crisetig
2nd Substitution
46'
Event
Jonathan Silva → Carlo Faedo
4th Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Cosimo Patierno
Argument / 2nd Yellowcard
45+3'
Event
Armando Izzo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
25'
18'
Event
Lorenzo Villa → Filippo Sgarbi
1st Substitution

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Avellino exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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