Aston Villa vs West Ham United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Villa Park Sun, 22 Mar - 2:15 PM
Premier League
Aston Villa AVL
2 Winner 0
West Ham United WHU
Full Time Sun, 22 Mar 2:15 PM
Round 31 Regular Season
John McGinn - 15'
Ollie Watkins - 68'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

The match has finished with Aston Villa securing a 1-0 victory over West Ham United. The hosts established their lead early, going into halftime with a 1-0 advantage that they successfully maintained until the final whistle. This outcome aligned completely with pre-match expectations, as the market favored an Aston Villa win with a 53.4% probability, compared to West Ham's 21.5% chance and a 25.1% likelihood of a draw. Despite being the anticipated result, securing the win still represented a significant deviation for Aston Villa based on the pre-match probabilities. On the pitch, Aston Villa controlled the tempo, holding 59% possession against West Ham's 41%. The victory was fully consistent with the expected goals (xG) data, which saw the home side generate a superior 2.22 xG compared to the visitors' 1.03 xG. Both teams' scoring efficiency remained in line with their underlying statistical metrics, as neither side drastically overperformed or underperformed in front of the net. Finally, the match concluded smoothly without any red cards to artificially impact the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Aston Villa showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Aston Villa U. Emery Etxegoien
U. Emery Etxegoien
VS
West Ham United N. Simões Espírito Santo
N. Simões Espírito Santo
2.35
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.96
1.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Everton Rank: 89 L
Crystal Palace Rank: 87 D
Nottingham Forest Rank: 85 W
Arsenal Rank: 100 L
Chelsea Rank: 91 W
Manchester United Rank: 92 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Liverpool Rank: 94 L
AFC Bournemouth Rank: 89 D
Manchester United Rank: 92 D
Burnley Rank: 79 W
Chelsea Rank: 91 L
Sunderland Rank: 82 W
13
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
13 - 16 - 11
11

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aston Villa
53.37%
Draw
25.1%
Away West Ham United
21.53%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
91.79
82.98
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aston Villa
West Ham United
Power Score
91.79
82.98
League Position
4
18
Global Rank
8
44

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aston Villa — Opponent-weighted form score
West Ham United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aston Villa West Ham United

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aston Villa

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

West Ham United

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aston Villa ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy West Ham United
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
43.31
26.95
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
26.95
43.31
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aston Villa +1.92 Efficiency Index
vs
West Ham United -1.92 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aston Villa
West Ham United
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aston Villa
vs
West Ham United
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aston Villa West Ham United
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aston Villa West Ham United
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Aston Villa
West Ham United
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 40 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aston Villa AVL Home
40 matches
West Ham United WHU Away
Match Record
13
Wins
11
16
Draws
16
11
Losses
13
Goals
49
Goals Scored
49
49
Goals Conceded
49
0
Goal Difference
0
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:24:37+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
D. Martínez
Argentina
23 D. Martínez
M. Cash
Poland
2 M. Cash
E. Konsa Ngoyo
England
4 E. Konsa Ngoyo
P. Francisco Torres
Spain
14 P. Francisco Torres
L. Digne
France
12 L. Digne
A. Mvom Onana
Belgium
24 A. Mvom Onana
R. Barkley
Substitution
England
6 R. Barkley
J. Sancho
Substitution
England
19 J. Sancho
J. McGinn
Substitution
Scotland
7 (C) J. McGinn
M. Rogers
Substitution
England
27 M. Rogers
O. Watkins
Substitution
England
11 O. Watkins
M. Hermansen
Denmark
1 M. Hermansen
E. Diouf
Senegal
12 E. Diouf
A. Disasi
France
4 A. Disasi
K. Mavropanos
Greece
15 K. Mavropanos
A. Wan-Bissaka
Substitution
England
29 A. Wan-Bissaka
M. Espanha Fernandes
Portugal
18 M. Espanha Fernandes
F. Potts
Substitution
England
32 F. Potts
T. Souček
Substitution
Czech Republic
28 T. Souček
P. Pereira de Jesus
Portugal
19 P. Pereira de Jesus
V. Castellanos Giménez
Substitution
Argentina
11 V. Castellanos Giménez
J. Bowen
England
20 (C) J. Bowen

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 22, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 31 · Regular Season
Stadium
Villa Park
Capacity
42640
Attendance
42130
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Paul Tierney
Richard West
Mark Scholes
Samuel Barrott

Statistics

Possession
AVL
57%
WHU
43%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 0
3 Big Chances Created 1
9 Shots 3
51 Dangerous attacks 41
59 Possession 41
6 Corners 6
11 Free kicks 3
0 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

14 Successful Headers 14
10 Goal Kicks 12
11 Dribble Attempts 15
55 Successful Dribbles Percentage 60
6 Successful Dribbles 9
5 Substitutions 4
66 Ball Safe 65
14 Goal Attempts 4
0 Injuries 1
20 Throwins 14
1 Assists 0

Attacking

93 Attacks 74
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

89 Successful Passes Percentage 83
22 Successful Long Passes 23
17 Key Passes 6
452 Successful Passes 283
56 Successful Long Passes Percentage 47
507 Passes 342
39 Long Passes 49

Defensive

18 Tackles 13
1 Saves 4
4 Interceptions 10

Build-up

17 Total Crosses 19
5 Accurate Crosses 6

Discipline

3 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

23
Emiliano Martínez
Emiliano Martínez Goalkeeper
6.91
2
Matty Cash
Matty Cash Defender
7.11
4
Ezri Konsa
Ezri Konsa Defender
7.34
12
Lucas Digne
Lucas Digne Defender
7.44
14
Pau Torres
Pau Torres Defender
6.97
6
Ross Barkley
Ross Barkley Midfielder
7.04
21
Douglas Luiz
Douglas Luiz
Midfielder67'
6.62
7
John McGinn
John McGinn (C) Midfielder
7.45
8
Youri Tielemans
Youri Tielemans
Midfielder67'
6.88
19
Jadon Sancho
Jadon Sancho Midfielder
7.21
31
Leon Bailey
Leon Bailey
Attacker67'
6.32
24
Amadou Onana
Amadou Onana Midfielder
7.88
27
Morgan Rogers
Morgan Rogers Midfielder
7.26
10
Emiliano Buendía
Emiliano Buendía
Midfielder77'
6.6
11
Ollie Watkins
Ollie Watkins Attacker
7.63
18
Tammy Abraham
Tammy Abraham
Attacker87'
Referee : Paul Tierney

Starting XI ▼

1
Mads Hermansen
Mads Hermansen Goalkeeper
6.35
4
Axel Disasi
Axel Disasi Defender
6.44
12
El Hadji Malick Diouf
El Hadji Malick Diouf Defender
6.67
15
Konstantinos Mavropanos
Konstantinos Mavropanos Defender
7.84
29
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Aaron Wan-Bissaka Defender
6.24
27
Soungoutou Magassa
Soungoutou Magassa
Midfielder83'
6.45
18
Mateus Fernandes
Mateus Fernandes Midfielder
6.59
28
Tomáš Souček
Tomáš Souček Midfielder
6.45
55
Mohamadou Kanté
Mohamadou Kanté
Midfielder83'
6.45
32
Freddie Potts
Freddie Potts Midfielder
6.52
17
Adama Traoré
Adama Traoré
Attacker46'
6.61
11
Taty Castellanos
Taty Castellanos Attacker
6.64
9
Callum Wilson
Callum Wilson
Attacker46'
6.44
19
Pablo
Pablo Attacker
6.84
20
Jarrod Bowen
Jarrod Bowen (C) Attacker
6.58

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Tammy Abraham → Ollie Watkins
9th Substitution
87'
83'
Event
Mohamadou Kanté → Tomáš Souček
7th Substitution
83'
Event
Soungoutou Magassa → Aaron Wan-Bissaka
8th Substitution
Event
Emiliano Buendía → Morgan Rogers
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Ollie Watkins
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
68'
Event
Youri Tielemans → John McGinn
5th Substitution
67'
Event
Douglas Luiz → Ross Barkley
4th Substitution
67'
Event
Leon Bailey → Jadon Sancho
3rd Substitution
67'
46'
Event
Adama Traoré → Freddie Potts
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Callum Wilson → Taty Castellanos
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
45'
Event
Aaron Wan-Bissaka
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Ollie Watkins
Penalty disallowed
27'
Event
John McGinn
Left foot shot / 1st Goal
15'

Match Commentary

90
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be 4 minutes of stoppage time.
90
Update Update
The second half has concluded with Aston Villa defeating West Ham United 2-0.
90
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Tammy Abraham of Aston Villa attempted a right-footed shot from over 35 yards but it went wide to the left. The assist came from Youri Tielemans after a quick counterattack.
90
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity. Mohamadou Kanté of West Ham United attempted a left-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area.
87
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Tammy Abraham replaces Ollie Watkins.
85
Update Update
Leon Bailey from Aston Villa has earned a free kick in an offensive position.
85
Update Update
El Hadji Malick Diouf commits a foul against West Ham United.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Soungoutou Magassa replaces Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
83
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Mohamadou Kanté comes on to replace Tomás Soucek.
82
Update Update
The attempt is thwarted. Pablo from West Ham United heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from El Hadji Malick Diouf, who delivered a cross.
82
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Amadou Onana allowed the ball to go out.
82
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Konstantinos Mavropanos of West Ham United heads the ball from close range, but his shot is blocked. The cross was delivered by Mateus Fernandes.
80
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes committed a foul against West Ham United.
80
Update Update
Emiliano Buendía from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
77
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendía comes on to replace Morgan Rogers.
71
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from a challenging angle on the right side, but it's successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
68
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa leads 2-0 against West Ham United. Ollie Watkins scores with a right-footed shot from close range, finding the top right corner after a swift counterattack.
68
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive effort unfolds as Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area. However, Mads Hermansen, the goalkeeper for West Ham United, makes a save right in the middle of the goal. The assist for this play came from Amadou Onana.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Douglas Luiz is coming on to replace Ross Barkley.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Leon Bailey comes on to replace Jadon Sancho.
67
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for Aston Villa: Youri Tielemans comes on to replace John McGinn.
66
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Pablo from West Ham United attempted a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area.
64
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Lucas Digne allowed the ball to go out.
61
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
61
Update Update
Axel Disasi committed a foul on a West Ham United player.
59
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity wasted. Amadou Onana from Aston Villa attempted a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area.
58
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Ezri Konsa allowed the ball to go out.
58
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jarrod Bowen from West Ham United attempts a left-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Pablo.
58
Update Update
Offside - West Ham United. Callum Wilson has been caught offside.
55
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it’s blocked. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
54
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Mateus Fernandes from West Ham United takes a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked.
54
Update Update
A fresh offensive push unfolds as Axel Disasi of West Ham United heads the ball from the middle of the penalty area. However, his effort is thwarted by Aston Villa's goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez, who makes a save right in front of the goal. The assist came from Konstantinos Mavropanos, who delivered a well-placed cross.
53
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Lucas Digne allowed the ball to go out.
51
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity. Matty Cash from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it goes over the bar and to the right following a corner kick.
50
Attempt Attempt
A fresh offensive move unfolds as Ross Barkley from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but the attempt is successfully stopped by the goalkeeper.
50
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Mads Hermansen allowed the ball to go out.
48
Update Update
The pause has ended. They’re set to resume play.
47
Update Update
Match halted due to an injury to Aaron Wan-Bissaka from West Ham United.
47
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is denied. Lucas Digne from Aston Villa takes a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's intercepted.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Callum Wilson replaces Valentín Castellanos.
45
Update Update
The second half is underway with the score at Aston Villa 1, West Ham United 0.
45
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Aaron Wan-Bissaka of West Ham United has been shown a yellow card for committing a foul.
45
Update Update
The fourth official has indicated that there will be three minutes of stoppage time.
45
Substitution Substitution
Substitution for West Ham United: Adama Traoré replaces Freddie Potts.
45
Corner Corner
Aston Villa has been awarded a corner kick after Freddie Potts allowed the ball to go out of play.
45
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Pau Torres allowed the ball to go out.
45
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Ezri Konsa of Aston Villa heads the ball from close range but sends it over the bar. The assist came from Lucas Digne, who delivered a cross following a corner.
45
Update Update
The first half has concluded with Aston Villa leading West Ham United 1-0.
44
Update Update
Offside called against West Ham United. Valentín Castellanos is caught in an offside position.
43
Attempt Attempt
Opportunity squandered. Matty Cash from Aston Villa attempted a left-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area.
40
Update Update
Offside call against West Ham United. Valentín Castellanos has been caught offside.
38
Update Update
Offside call against West Ham United. Tomás Soucek has been flagged for being offside.
37
Update Update
Pablo from West Ham United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
37
Update Update
Pablo from West Ham United was awarded a free kick on the right flank.
37
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos committed a foul against West Ham United.
37
Update Update
Emiliano Martínez from Aston Villa was awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Pau Torres allowed the ball to go out.
36
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to West Ham United after Pau Torres allowed the ball to go out.
34
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Konstantinos Mavropanos allowed the ball to go out.
34
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa attempts a right-footed strike from the middle of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from John McGinn.
33
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Amadou Onana from Aston Villa fires a right-footed shot from the right side of the penalty area, but it's successfully blocked. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
32
Update Update
John McGinn from Aston Villa has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
32
Update Update
Freddie Potts from West Ham United committed a foul.
31
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from close range, but it gets blocked.
31
Corner Corner
Missed opportunity! Ezri Konsa from Aston Villa took a right-footed shot from inside the six-yard box on the left side, but it went just wide to the left after a corner kick.
30
Attempt Attempt
The attempt was thwarted. Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa fired a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it was blocked. The assist came from Ollie Watkins.
30
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Jarrod Bowen allowed the ball to go out.
27
Update Update
VAR Review: Penalty Not Awarded to Aston Villa.
25
Update Update
Valentín Castellanos of West Ham United earned a free kick on the right flank.
25
Update Update
Ross Barkley commits a foul for Aston Villa.
24
Update Update
The pause has ended. They are set to resume play.
24
Attempt Attempt
Another offensive push unfolds. Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from the middle of the penalty area, but Mads Hermansen, the West Ham United goalkeeper, makes a save right in the center of the goal. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
23
Update Update
The game is currently on hold due to an injury to Tomás Soucek from West Ham United.
22
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa took a right-footed shot from the left side of the penalty area, but it went wide. The assist came from Morgan Rogers.
20
Attempt Attempt
Missed opportunity! Amadou Onana from Aston Villa attempted a header from the center of the box, but it went just wide. The assist came from Jadon Sancho.
18
Attempt Attempt
The attempt is thwarted. Ross Barkley from Aston Villa takes a right-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it's blocked. The assist came from Lucas Digne.
16
Update Update
Opportunity squandered. Valentín Castellanos of West Ham United attempted a header from the center of the box but sent it wide to the left. The assist came from Jarrod Bowen, who delivered a cross.
15
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Goal! Aston Villa takes the lead with a score of 1-0 against West Ham United. John McGinn scores with a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, placing it perfectly into the left corner of the net. The assist comes from Jadon Sancho.
14
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes committed a foul against West Ham United.
14
Update Update
Morgan Rogers from Aston Villa earned a free kick on the left side of the field.
12
Update Update
Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa earned a free kick in the defensive area.
12
Update Update
Freddie Potts committed a foul for West Ham United.
10
Update Update
Mateus Fernandes from West Ham United has been awarded a free kick in the defensive area.
10
Update Update
Matty Cash from Aston Villa committed a foul.
7
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Mads Hermansen allowed the ball to go out.
7
Attempt Attempt
A shot is deflected. Jadon Sancho of Aston Villa attempts a right-footed strike from the right side of the penalty area, but it gets blocked. The assist came from Ezri Konsa.
7
Attempt Attempt
Close call! Lucas Digne from Aston Villa took a left-footed shot from outside the penalty area, but it veered just to the left and went wide of the goal.
6
Corner Corner
Corner awarded to Aston Villa after Konstantinos Mavropanos allowed the ball to go out.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Aston Villa exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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