Alverca vs Estoril Prediction, Preview and Stats

Portugal flag 2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca Sun, 10 May - 12:00 AM
Liga Portugal
Alverca ALV
Versus
Estoril EPF
KICKOFF : Sun, 10 May - 12:00 AM
Round 33 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In Liga Portugal's regular season at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, mid-table rivals Alverca and Estoril square off in the 2025/2026 campaign. Estoril arrive as the stronger side on paper, holding a power score of 67.78 to Alverca's 57.41, translating to a clear 10.4-point advantage. Yet, form tells a contrasting tale: Alverca's impressive 16.83 rating towers over Estoril's modest 3.28, hinting at home momentum. League standings reflect parity, with Estoril perched at 9th and Alverca just behind in 10th. Advanced metrics like efficiency and set pieces remain unavailable due to missing xG data, leaving focus on raw power and recent performances. Alverca's home turf could level the structural gap, but Estoril's quality might shine through in transitions and open play. This encounter promises tension in a tightly contested division.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Estoril holds a 10.4-point power advantage with a score of 67.78 over Alverca's 57.41.
  • Form: Alverca's form score of 16.83 far exceeds Estoril's 3.28.
  • Squad: Estoril occupy 9th place in the league, one spot ahead of 10th-placed Alverca.
  • Efficiency: Efficiency data is unavailable for both teams.
  • Transition: Transition metrics unavailable due to lack of detailed xG data.
  • Set pieces: Set piece xG data unavailable as the add-on is not enabled for either team.
  • xVariable: xG-related variables unavailable with low confidence proxies used.
  • Market: Alverca 38.7% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.8% (Δ+0%) | Estoril 34.5% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Alverca C. Dias de Castro
C. Dias de Castro
VS
Estoril I. Cathro
I. Cathro
1.29
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.19
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 W
Nacional Rank: 63 L
Casa Pia Rank: 63 W
Rio Ave Rank: 64 W
Sporting CP Rank: 88 L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Braga Rank: 82 D
Famalicão Rank: 73 L
Moreirense Rank: 66 L
Porto Rank: 87 L
Arouca Rank: 65 L
Rio Ave Rank: 64 L
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alverca
38.72%
Draw
26.8%
Away Estoril
34.48%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
57.41
67.78
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alverca
Estoril
Power Score
57.41
67.78
League Position
10
9
Global Rank
288
258

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alverca — Opponent-weighted form score
Estoril — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alverca Estoril

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alverca ALV Home
1 matches
Estoril EPF Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
1
Goals Scored
4
4
Goals Conceded
1
-3
Goal Difference
+3

Data last updated: 2026-05-06T01:02:42+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Match Formation 3-4-3
Match Formation 3-4-3
Pitch
Matheus Mendes
1 Matheus Mendes
K. Marques Naves
4 K. Marques Naves
S. Gómez Solà
5 S. Gómez Solà
N. Meupiyou Menadjou
33 N. Meupiyou Menadjou
N. Zoubdi Touaizi
2 N. Zoubdi Touaizi
R. Simião Gomes
26 R. Simião Gomes
L. Oliveira dos Santos
18 L. Oliveira dos Santos
I. James
12 I. James
Chiquinho
10 Chiquinho
S. Cordovil de Lima
91 S. Cordovil de Lima
L. Figueiredo dos Santos
20 L. Figueiredo dos Santos
M. Turk
16 M. Turk
A. Tsoungui
5 A. Tsoungui
F. Reis Ferreira
4 F. Reis Ferreira
F. Bacher
25 F. Bacher
P. Gaspar Amaral
24 P. Gaspar Amaral
J. Holsgrove
10 J. Holsgrove
M. da Silva Rocha
8 M. da Silva Rocha
R. Sánchez Sendra
2 R. Sánchez Sendra
Y. Begraoui
14 Y. Begraoui
J. Antunes Carvalho
12 J. Antunes Carvalho
R. Guitane
99 R. Guitane

General Information

Date & Time :
May 10, 2026, 12:00 AM
Competition :
2025/2026 Liga Portugal, Portugal · Round 33 · Regular Season
Stadium :
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Capacity :
7705
Pitch Surface :
Grass
Weather :
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira
Matheus Mendes Werneck de Oliveira Goalkeeper
6.98
2
Nabil Touaizi
Nabil Touaizi Midfielder
6.74
12
Isaac James
Isaac James Midfielder
20
Figueiredo
Figueiredo Attacker
6.98
91
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima
Sandro César Cordovil de Lima Centre Forward
7.3
10
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira
Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira Attacker
7
4
Kaiky Marques Naves
Kaiky Marques Naves Right Back
6.94
5
Sergi Gómez Solà
Sergi Gómez Solà Centre Back
6.55
26
Rhaldney
Rhaldney Central Midfield
6.69
33
Bastien Meupiyou
Bastien Meupiyou Left Back
6.55
18
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos
Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos Central Midfield
7.07

Starting XI ▼

16
Martin Turk
Martin Turk Goalkeeper
6.86
2
Ricard Sánchez
Ricard Sánchez Midfielder
6.78
24
Pedro Amaral
Pedro Amaral Midfielder
6.54
12
João Carvalho
João Carvalho Centre Forward
7.17
14
Yanis Begraoui
Yanis Begraoui Attacker
7.06
99
Rafik Guitane
Rafik Guitane Attacker
6.85
4
Ferro
Ferro Centre Back
6.8
25
Felix Bacher
Felix Bacher Right Back
6.8
10
Jordan Holsgrove
Jordan Holsgrove Central Midfield
7.18
5
Antef Tsoungui
Antef Tsoungui Left Back
6.74
8
Xeka
Xeka Central Midfield
6.64

CONCLUSION

Alverca's superior form offers hope against Estoril's power edge in this Liga Portugal mid-table scrap. Hosting at their complex, Alverca can leverage recent momentum to counter Estoril's structural superiority. Tight league positions underscore the stakes, with no advanced stats to sway the narrative decisively. Expect a competitive battle where Alverca's home resilience meets Estoril's quality, potentially tilting towards the visitors if they exploit transitions effectively. Key will be Alverca sustaining their form surge.

Alverca vs Estoril preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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