Almería vs Real Sociedad II Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 29 Mar - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
5 Winner 1
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II
Full Time Sun, 29 Mar 7:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Miguel de la Fuente - 4'
Sergio Arribas - 19', 56'
Adrián Embarba - 70' (P)
Álex Muñoz - 78'
Goal
|
Goal
Gorka Carrera - 66'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Almería 3–1 Real Sociedad II. The result saw Almería take the points. Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 48%–52%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Almería showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Real Sociedad II J. Ansotegi Gorostola
J. Ansotegi Gorostola
1.78
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.42
2.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Real Zaragoza Rank: 57 L
Cultural Leonesa Rank: 59 W
Albacete Rank: 66 D
Córdoba Rank: 61 W
FC Andorra Rank: 60 W
Cádiz Rank: 60 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Granada Rank: 66 L
Córdoba Rank: 63 W
Castellón Rank: 67 W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Cádiz Rank: 60 W
Málaga Rank: 68 W
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 0
0

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
60.29%
Draw
22.11%
Away Real Sociedad II
17.6%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.83
57.5
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Real Sociedad II
Power Score
69.83
57.5
League Position
2
15
Global Rank
187
382

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Real Sociedad II — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Real Sociedad II

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Almería

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Real Sociedad II

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad II
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
65.10
37.98
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
37.98
65.10
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Almería +2.74 Efficiency Index
vs
Real Sociedad II -2.74 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Real Sociedad II
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Almería ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Real Sociedad II
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Almería Real Sociedad II
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Almería Real Sociedad II
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Almería
Real Sociedad II
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
3 matches
Real Sociedad II Real Sociedad II Away
Match Record
2
Wins
0
1
Draws
1
0
Losses
2
Goals
7
Goals Scored
3
3
Goals Conceded
7
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-30T00:00:39+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
Spain
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
16 M. Ruiz
N. Macedo Monte
Portugal
4 N. Macedo Monte
F. Bonini
Italy
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
Spain
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
I. Mohammed
Ghana
14 I. Mohammed
D. Lopy
Substitution
Senegal
17 D. Lopy
A. Puigmal Martínez
Substitution
Spain
2 A. Puigmal Martínez
S. Arribas Calvo
Substitution
Spain
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
Spain
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
M. De la Fuente Escudero
Substitution
Spain
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
A. Fraga Torres
Spain
1 A. Fraga Torres
J. Balda Zubiri
Substitution
Spain
3 J. Balda Zubiri
K. Kita
Japan
15 K. Kita
L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
Spain
4 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
A. Dadie Izagirre
Spain
22 A. Dadie Izagirre
I. Aguirre Basurko
Spain
31 I. Aguirre Basurko
T. Carbonell Del Rio
Substitution
14 T. Carbonell Del Rio
A. Marchal Garcia
Substitution
Spain
19 A. Marchal Garcia
M. Rodriguez Carrasco
Substitution
Spain
8 M. Rodriguez Carrasco
L. Astiazarán Escabias
Substitution
Spain
17 L. Astiazarán Escabias
G. Carrera Zarranz
Spain
18 G. Carrera Zarranz

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 29, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Salvador Lax Franco
Carlos Grande Rabadán
Diego Fernández Correas
Juan Francisco Roca Robles

Statistics

Possession
ALM
50%
Real Sociedad II
50%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 1
5 Big Chances Created 2
10 Shots 6
45 Dangerous attacks 35
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 7
14 Free kicks 13
2 Yellow Cards 5

Match Overview

15 Throwins 19
15 Dribble Attempts 19
82 Ball Safe 82
67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 42
7 Goal Kicks 10
2 Hit Woodwork 0
19 Goal Attempts 10
10 Successful Dribbles 8
5 Substitutions 5
1 Assists 1
1 Penalties 0
2 Injuries 0

Attacking

71 Attacks 113
2 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

18 Key Passes 16
291 Successful Passes 335
57 Long Passes 41
22 Successful Long Passes 15
373 Passes 417
78 Successful Passes Percentage 80
39 Successful Long Passes Percentage 37

Defensive

5 Interceptions 5
22 Tackles 16
5 Saves 5

Build-up

7 Accurate Crosses 3
17 Total Crosses 12

Discipline

2 Offsides 0
12 Fouls 11

Lineup

Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Defender
4
Nélson Monte
Nélson Monte Defender
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Defender
22
Daijiro Chirino
Daijiro Chirino
Defender46'
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Defender
2
Arnau Puigmal
Arnau Puigmal Midfielder
7
Jon Morcillo
Jon Morcillo
Attacker68'
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Midfielder
2
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed
Midfielder68'
14
Iddrisu Baba
Iddrisu Baba Midfielder
17
Dion Lopy
Dion Lopy Midfielder
29
Stefan Dzodic
Stefan Dzodic
Midfielder68'
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Midfielder
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Attacker
19
Patrick Soko
Patrick Soko
Attacker76'
Referee : Salvador Lax Franco

Starting XI ▼

1
Aitor Fraga
Aitor Fraga Goalkeeper
3
Jon Balda
Jon Balda Defender
23
Unax Agote
Unax Agote
Defender79'
4
Luken Beitia
Luken Beitia Defender
15
Kazunari Kita
Kazunari Kita Defender
22
Alberto Dadie
Alberto Dadie Defender
8
Mikel Rodriguez
Mikel Rodriguez Midfielder
16
Gorka Gorosabel
Gorka Gorosabel
Midfielder61'
14
Tomy Carbonell
Tomy Carbonell Midfielder
21
Joni Eceiza
Joni Eceiza
Midfielder79'
17
Lander Astiazaran
Lander Astiazaran Midfielder
10
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena
Attacker61'
19
Alex Marchal
Alex Marchal Midfielder
7
Dani Díaz
Dani Díaz
Attacker61'
31
Ibai Aguirre Basurco
Ibai Aguirre Basurco Midfielder
18
Gorka Carrera
Gorka Carrera Attacker

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Alberto Dadie
Foul / 7th Yellowcard
80'
Event
8th Yellowcard
80'
Event
Ibai Aguirre Basurco
Foul / 6th Yellowcard
79'
Event
Unax Agote → Jon Balda
9th Substitution
79'
Event
Joni Eceiza → Tomy Carbonell
10th Substitution
Event
Álex Muñoz
Left foot shot / 5th Goal
78'
Event
Patrick Soko → Miguel de la Fuente
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Adrián Embarba
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
72'
Event
Adrián Embarba
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty
70'
69'
Event
Aitor Fraga
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
Event
Jon Morcillo → Arnau Puigmal
7th Substitution
68'
Event
Stefan Dzodic → Dion Lopy
5th Substitution
68'
Event
Nico Melamed → Sergio Arribas
6th Substitution
68'
66'
Event
Gorka Carrera
Header / 4th Goal
63'
Event
Gorka Carrera
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
61'
Event
Dani Díaz → Alex Marchal
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Arkaitz Mariezkurrena → Lander Astiazaran
4th Substitution
61'
Event
Gorka Gorosabel → Mikel Rodriguez
3rd Substitution
Event
Sergio Arribas
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
56'
Event
Dion Lopy
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
51'
Event
Daijiro Chirino → Marcos Luna
1st Substitution
46'
1ST-HALF
31'
Event
Tomy Carbonell
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
Event
Sergio Arribas
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
19'
Event
Miguel de la Fuente
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
4'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Almería exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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