Almería vs Málaga Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos Sun, 19 Apr - 7:00 PM
La Liga 2
Almería ALM
Versus
Málaga MLA
KICKOFF : Sun, 19 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 36 Regular Season

CONTEXT

In La Liga 2's Regular Season for 2025/2026, Almería currently second in the table prepare to face Málaga who sit in fourth position. This promises to be a tightly contested affair given their close proximity in the standings and shared ambitions. The match at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos offers both sides an opportunity to improve their standings in this competitive league. Almería bring a form record of three wins and three losses from six matches, coming into this after suffering a loss away at Racing Santander. In contrast, Málaga have gone unbeaten with three wins and three draws, most recently winning at home against Las Palmas. Although power scores indicate Málaga as the stronger team with an advantage of 6.6 points, the home environment might help Almería overcome the challenge. This fixture highlights an interesting dynamic between two teams chasing similar objectives in the promotion race.

TL;DR

  • Structural: League standings show Almería in second and Málaga in fourth, setting up an important meeting at the Mediterranean Games Stadium.
  • Form: Recent performances reveal an unbeaten Málaga side against an Almería team with three defeats in six outings.
  • Squad: The visiting squad holds a power advantage which could allow them to dictate terms despite playing away.
  • Efficiency: Current efficiency readings provide little separation, leaving tactical execution as the main differentiator on the day.
  • Transition: Effective transitions from defence into attack might see Málaga threatening on the counter against the home side.
  • Set pieces: Set piece information carries low confidence levels, forcing analysts to use proxy measures for both participants.
  • xVariable: Various underlying metrics consistently point to Málaga possessing the upper hand entering this fixture.
  • Market: Almería 50.1% (Δ-0.7%) | Draw 24.8% (Δ+0.1%) | Málaga 25.1% (Δ+0.6%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
Almería J. Ferrer Sicilia
J. Ferrer Sicilia
VS
Málaga J. Funes Arjona
J. Funes Arjona
1.77
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.88
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Racing Santander Rank: L
Leganés Rank: W
Castellón Rank: L
Real Sociedad II Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
Real Zaragoza Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
2 i
Last 6 Opponents
Las Palmas Rank: W
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: D
FC Andorra Rank: D
Leganés Rank: D
Cádiz Rank: W
Huesca Rank: W
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 8 - 7
7
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Almería
50.07%
Draw
24.81%
Away Málaga
25.13%

Movement

Changes since opening
Almería
-0.74%
Draw
+0.14%
Málaga
+0.61%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
26.83
33.39
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Almería
Málaga
Power Score
26.83
33.39
League Position
2
4
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Almería — Opponent-weighted form score
Málaga — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Almería Málaga

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 25 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Almería ALM Home
25 matches
Málaga MLA Away
Match Record
10
Wins
7
8
Draws
8
7
Losses
10
Goals
31
Goals Scored
26
26
Goals Conceded
31
+5
Goal Difference
-5
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T01:09:06+00:00

STARTING XI - EXPECTED

Pitch
A. Fernández Moreno
1 A. Fernández Moreno
M. Ruiz
16 M. Ruiz
N. Macedo Monte
4 N. Macedo Monte
F. Bonini
18 F. Bonini
A. Muñoz Miguel
3 A. Muñoz Miguel
I. Mohammed
14 I. Mohammed
A. Luz Horta
6 A. Luz Horta
S. Arribas Calvo
11 S. Arribas Calvo
A. Embarba Blázquez
23 A. Embarba Blázquez
N. Melamed Ribaudo
10 N. Melamed Ribaudo
M. De la Fuente Escudero
24 M. De la Fuente Escudero
A. Herrero Peinador
1 A. Herrero Peinador
R. Garrido Hierro
31 R. Garrido Hierro
F. Montero Rubio
20 F. Montero Rubio
D. Murillo Dominguez
16 D. Murillo Dominguez
C. Puga Medina
3 C. Puga Medina
A. Ochoa Moloney
35 A. Ochoa Moloney
R. Rodríguez Ruiz
37 R. Rodríguez Ruiz
C. Dotor Gonzalez
12 C. Dotor Gonzalez
J. Muñoz Benavides
11 J. Muñoz Benavides
A. Niño Heredia
21 A. Niño Heredia
C. Ruiz Rubio
9 C. Ruiz Rubio

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 19, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 36 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos
Capacity
17400
Pitch Surface
N/A
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair

Expected Lineup

Starting XI ▼

1
Andrés Fernández
Andrés Fernández Goalkeeper
7.01
24
Miguel de la Fuente
Miguel de la Fuente Centre Forward
6.56
6
André Horta
André Horta Defensive Midfield
6.69
4
Nélson Monte
Nélson Monte Right Back
6.75
23
Adrián Embarba
Adrián Embarba Attacking Midfield
7.13
3
Álex Muñoz
Álex Muñoz Left Back
6.85
14
Iddrisu Baba
Iddrisu Baba Defensive Midfield
6.75
16
Marcos Luna
Marcos Luna Right Back
6.48
18
Federico Bonini
Federico Bonini Left Back
6.89
10
Nico Melamed
Nico Melamed Left Wing
6.92
11
Sergio Arribas
Sergio Arribas Right Wing
7.57

Starting XI ▼

1
Alfonso Herrero
Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
6.99
35
Aarón Ochoa
Aarón Ochoa Midfielder
6.77
11
Joaquín Muñoz
Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
6.85
9
Chupe
Chupe Attacker
7.04
21
Adrián Niño
Adrián Niño Attacker
6.82
37
Rafa Rodríguez
Rafa Rodríguez Central Midfield
6.74
3
Carlos Puga
Carlos Puga Right Back
6.89
31
Rafita Garrido
Rafita Garrido Left Back
6.81
12
Carlos Dotor
Carlos Dotor Central Midfield
6.85
16
Diego Murillo
Diego Murillo Right Back
6.99
20
Javi Montero
Javi Montero Left Back
6.75

CONCLUSION

Considering all factors, the encounter is poised to deliver competitive football with neither side clearly dominant. Almería will rely on home support and their league position to push for a win, yet they must address their inconsistent form. Málaga enter the game with confidence from their unbeaten sequence and could capitalize if the hosts leave spaces in transition. Set pieces and efficiency will likely play supporting roles given the current data limitations. Ultimately, a draw seems a plausible outcome but Málaga's overall metrics suggest they might edge this contest. Spectators should expect a tactical battle where execution in key moments determines the victor.

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