Albacete vs Castellón Prediction, Preview and Stats

Spain flag 2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain
Estadio Carlos Belmonte Sat, 28 Mar - 8:00 PM
La Liga 2
Albacete ALB
1 – 1
Castellón Castellón
Full Time Sat, 28 Mar 8:00 PM
Round 32 Regular Season
Jefté Betancor - 42'
Goal
|
Goal
Fabrizio Brignani - 45+2'
|
Second yellow card Beñat Gerenabarrena 90+6'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Albacete 1–1 Castellón. The match ended in a draw. Albacete showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result diverged from the pre-match projection. Possession was 37%–63%. The match featured at least one red card, which may have affected the flow of the game.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Albacete showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: Red card(s) affected the match (Classify).
  • Red card distortion: Classify as red card distortion.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Albacete A. González Fernández
A. González Fernández
VS
Castellón P. Hernández Domínguez
P. Hernández Domínguez
1.45
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.83
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 65 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 L
Real Zaragoza Rank: 59 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
Cádiz Rank: 60 W
Real Sociedad II Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
Sporting Gijón Rank: 64 L
Real Sociedad II Rank: 60 L
Racing Santander Rank: 71 L
Las Palmas Rank: 69 D
Deportivo La Coruña Rank: 67 W
Real Valladolid Rank: 61 W
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 6 - 4
4

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Albacete
31.71%
Draw
27.89%
Away Castellón
40.41%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
66.39
65.63
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Albacete
Castellón
Power Score
66.39
65.63
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
273
308

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Albacete — Opponent-weighted form score
Castellón — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Albacete Castellón

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Albacete

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Castellón

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Albacete ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
35.54
25.24
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
25.24
35.54
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Albacete +1.04 Efficiency Index
vs
Castellón -1.04 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Albacete
Castellón
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Albacete ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Castellón
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Albacete Castellón
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Albacete Castellón
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Albacete
Castellón
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 16 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Albacete ALB Home
16 matches
Castellón Castellón Away
Match Record
6
Wins
4
6
Draws
6
4
Losses
6
Goals
17
Goals Scored
13
13
Goals Conceded
17
+4
Goal Difference
-4
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-29T00:00:38+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 5-3-2
Match Formation 4-3-3
Pitch
R. Lizoáin Cruz
Spain
13 R. Lizoáin Cruz
F. Gámez López
Substitution
Spain
15 F. Gámez López
J. Sánchez Martínez
Spain
23 J. Sánchez Martínez
L. López Mármol
Spain
22 L. López Mármol
C. Neva Tey
Spain
21 C. Neva Tey
D. Bernabéu Garcia
Substitution
27 D. Bernabéu Garcia
A. Meléndez Ruiz
Substitution
Spain
17 A. Meléndez Ruiz
M. Fernández Figueira
Uruguay
8 M. Fernández Figueira
V. San Bartolomé Prieto
Substitution
Spain
14 V. San Bartolomé Prieto
J. Betancor Sánchez
Substitution
Spain
10 J. Betancor Sánchez
J. Rodríguez Díaz
Spain
7 J. Rodríguez Díaz
R. Matthys
Belgium
13 R. Matthys
L. Alcázar Moreno
Substitution
Spain
12 L. Alcázar Moreno
A. Jiménez Benítez
Spain
5 A. Jiménez Benítez
F. Brignani
Italy
3 F. Brignani
J. Mellot
France
22 J. Mellot
B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
Spain
15 B. Gerenabarrena Zendoia
D. Hernández Barriuso
Spain
8 D. Hernández Barriuso
M. Doue
Substitution
France
6 M. Doue
P. Santiago López
Substitution
Spain
18 P. Santiago López
O. Camara
France
9 O. Camara
I. Suero Fernández
Substitution
Spain
10 I. Suero Fernández

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 28, 2026, 08:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 La Liga 2, Spain · Round 32 · Regular Season
Stadium
Estadio Carlos Belmonte
Capacity
17524
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
José Manuel Sarmiento Millet
José Gutiérrez
Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid
Ángel Ramos Cinos

Statistics

Possession
ALB
41%
Castellón
59%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
2 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 5
43 Dangerous attacks 58
37 Possession 63
6 Corners 8
16 Free kicks 12
4 Yellow Cards 6
0 Red Cards 1

Match Overview

1 Assists 1
5 Substitutions 4
11 Dribble Attempts 12
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 75
91 Ball Safe 85
4 Injuries 0
5 Goal Attempts 8
21 Throwins 11
0 Hit Woodwork 1
11 Goal Kicks 5
4 Successful Dribbles 9

Attacking

1 Big Chances Missed 0
88 Attacks 115

Possession

10 Key Passes 11
218 Successful Passes 437
38 Successful Long Passes Percentage 48
302 Passes 526
72 Successful Passes Percentage 83
65 Long Passes 46
25 Successful Long Passes 22

Defensive

11 Interceptions 5
6 Tackles 13
4 Saves 3

Build-up

3 Accurate Crosses 5
19 Total Crosses 24

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 15

Lineup

Referee : Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid

Starting XI ▼

13
Raúl Lizoain
Raúl Lizoain Goalkeeper
15
Fran Gámez
Fran Gámez Defender
5
Javi Moreno
Javi Moreno
Defender80'
21
Carlos Neva
Carlos Neva Defender
22
Lluís López
Lluís López Defender
23
Pepe Sánchez
Pepe Sánchez Defender
27
Daniel Bernabéu Garcia
Daniel Bernabéu Garcia Defender
3
Jonathan Gómez
Jonathan Gómez
Defender65'
8
Martín Fernández
Martín Fernández Midfielder
14
Victor San Bartolome Prieto
Victor San Bartolome Prieto Midfielder
16
José Carlos Lazo
José Carlos Lazo
Attacker65'
17
Ale Meléndez
Ale Meléndez Midfielder
6
Antonio Pacheco
Antonio Pacheco
Midfielder65'
7
Antonio Puertas
Antonio Puertas Attacker
10
Jefté Betancor
Jefté Betancor Attacker
20
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa
Attacker73'
Referee : Manuel Jesús Orellana Cid

Starting XI ▼

13
Romain Matthys
Romain Matthys Goalkeeper
3
Fabrizio Brignani
Fabrizio Brignani Defender
5
Alberto Jiménez
Alberto Jiménez Defender
12
Lucas Alcázar
Lucas Alcázar Defender
2
Tincho Conde
Tincho Conde
Defender78'
22
Jérémy Mellot
Jérémy Mellot Defender
6
Marc-Olivier Doué
Marc-Olivier Doué Midfielder
19
Adam Jakobsen
Adam Jakobsen
Attacker62'
8
Diego Barri
Diego Barri Midfielder
15
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Beñat Gerenabarrena Midfielder
9
Ousmane Camara
Ousmane Camara Attacker
10
Israel Suero
Israel Suero Attacker
29
Tommaso De Nipoti
Tommaso De Nipoti
Attacker78'
18
Pablo Santiago
Pablo Santiago Attacker
23
Álvaro García
Álvaro García
Attacker89'

Events

2ND-HALF
90+6'
Event
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
90+4'
Event
Alberto Jiménez
Argument / 9th Yellowcard
Event
11th Yellowcard
90'
Event
Jonathan Gómez
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
90'
90'
Event
Adam Jakobsen
Argument / 8th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Álvaro García → Pablo Santiago
9th Substitution
Event
José Carlos Lazo
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
88'
Event
Javi Moreno → Fran Gámez
8th Substitution
80'
80'
Event
Beñat Gerenabarrena
Foul / 5th Yellowcard
78'
Event
Tincho Conde → Lucas Alcázar
6th Substitution
78'
Event
Tommaso De Nipoti → Israel Suero
7th Substitution
Event
Samuel Obeng Gyabaa → Jefté Betancor
5th Substitution
73'
Event
Antonio Pacheco → Ale Meléndez
4th Substitution
65'
Event
Jonathan Gómez → Daniel Bernabéu Garcia
2nd Substitution
65'
Event
José Carlos Lazo → Victor San Bartolome Prieto
3rd Substitution
65'
62'
Event
Adam Jakobsen → Marc-Olivier Doué
1st Substitution
Event
10th Yellowcard
60'
Event
Ale Meléndez
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
60'
1ST-HALF
45+2'
Event
Fabrizio Brignani
Header / 2nd Goal
44'
Event
Fabrizio Brignani
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
Event
Jefté Betancor
Header / 1st Goal
42'
36'
Event
Marc-Olivier Doué
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Martín Fernández
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
1'

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Albacete exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Structural distortion: The match was materially influenced by red card(s), altering baseline dynamics. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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