Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction, Preview and Stats

Turkey flag 2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu Wed, 18 Mar - 1:00 PM
Super Lig
Alanyaspor ANY
5 Winner 0
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Full Time Wed, 18 Mar 1:00 PM
Florent Hadergjonaj - 26'
Ui-jo Hwang - 31'
Nuno Lima - 63'
İbrahim Kaya - 81'
Nicolas Janvier - 88'
Goal
|

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Alanyaspor 3–0 Kocaelispor. The result saw Alanyaspor take the points. Alanyaspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 40%–60%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Alanyaspor showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
  • Market: Alanyaspor 47.3% (Δ+0%) | Draw 28.9% (Δ+0%) | Kocaelispor 23.8% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Alanyaspor N. Pereira Costa
N. Pereira Costa
VS
Kocaelispor S. İnan
S. İnan
0.95
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Göztepe Rank: 73 D
Gençlerbirliği Rank: 65 D
Galatasaray Rank: 88 L
İstanbul Başakşehir Rank: 74 L
Konyaspor Rank: 67 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Konyaspor Rank: 67 L
Eyüpspor Rank: 65 W
Beşiktaş Rank: 77 L
Rizespor Rank: 67 L
Gaziantep F.K. Rank: 66 W
Kayserispor Rank: 63 W
0
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
0 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Alanyaspor
47.27%
Draw
28.94%
Away Kocaelispor
23.79%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
69.33
56.09
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
Power Score
69.33
56.09
League Position
10
8
Global Rank
190
345

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Alanyaspor — Opponent-weighted form score
Kocaelispor — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Alanyaspor Kocaelispor

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Alanyaspor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Kocaelispor

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
29.00
13.42
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
13.42
29.00
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Alanyaspor +1.64 Efficiency Index
vs
Kocaelispor -1.64 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Alanyaspor ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Kocaelispor
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Alanyaspor Kocaelispor
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Alanyaspor Kocaelispor
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Alanyaspor
Kocaelispor
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 1 match between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Alanyaspor ANY Home
1 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor Away
Match Record
0
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-19T00:01:56+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Match Formation 4-1-4-1
Pitch
P. de Mileo Vidotti
Brazil
48 P. de Mileo Vidotti
N. Reis Lima
Portugal
3 N. Reis Lima
F. Aliti
Kosovo
5 F. Aliti
?. Akdağ
Romania
50 ?. Akdağ
F. Hadërgjonaj
Kosovo
94 F. Hadërgjonaj
G. Makouta
Substitution
France
42 G. Makouta
N. Janvier
France
17 N. Janvier
R. Pereira Duarte
Substitution
Brazil
11 R. Pereira Duarte
I. Hagi
Substitution
Romania
14 I. Hagi
U. Hwang
Substitution
South Korea
16 U. Hwang
S. Mounié
Substitution
Benin
9 S. Mounié
G. Değirmenci
Turkey
35 G. Değirmenci
H. Smolčić
Croatia
6 H. Smolčić
A. Dijksteel
Suriname
2 A. Dijksteel
B. Balogh
Hungary
5 B. Balogh
R. Rivas Vindel
Honduras
99 R. Rivas Vindel
K. Linetty
Substitution
Poland
10 K. Linetty
D. Churlinov
Substitution
Macedonia
17 D. Churlinov
J. Nonge Boende
Belgium
98 J. Nonge Boende
H. Keita
Substitution
Mali
8 H. Keita
D. Agyei
Substitution
England
7 D. Agyei
S. Dursun
Substitution
Germany
19 S. Dursun

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 18, 2026, 01:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Super Lig, Turkey
Stadium
Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu
Capacity
10128
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ , Clear
Referees
Yiğit Arslan

Statistics

Possession
ANY
43%
Kocaelispor
57%

Top Statistics

5 Goals 0
2 Big Chances Created 0
2 Shots 3
32 Dangerous attacks 41
40 Possession 60
3 Corners 3
14 Free kicks 14
0 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

3 Successful Dribbles 4
10 Successful Headers 12
43 Successful Dribbles Percentage 44
17 Throwins 20
8 Goal Kicks 6
7 Dribble Attempts 9
5 Assists 0
5 Substitutions 5
70 Ball Safe 76
1 Injuries 1
7 Goal Attempts 7
0 Hit Woodwork 1

Attacking

52 Attacks 98

Possession

238 Successful Passes 391
78 Successful Passes Percentage 84
8 Key Passes 3
64 Long Passes 64
30 Successful Long Passes 35
47 Successful Long Passes Percentage 55
307 Passes 465

Defensive

1 Saves 1
9 Interceptions 11
11 Tackles 7

Build-up

10 Total Crosses 18
5 Accurate Crosses 3

Discipline

3 Offsides 1
14 Fouls 13

Lineup

Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Starting XI ▼

48
Paulo Victor
Paulo Victor Goalkeeper
3
Nuno Lima
Nuno Lima Defender
5
Fidan Aliti
Fidan Aliti Defender
50
Ümit Akdağ
Ümit Akdağ Defender
11
Ruan
Ruan Midfielder
8
Enes Keskin
Enes Keskin
Midfielder77'
17
Nicolas Janvier
Nicolas Janvier Midfielder
42
Gaius Makouta
Gaius Makouta Midfielder
20
Fatih Aksoy
Fatih Aksoy
Defender84'
94
Florent Hadergjonaj
Florent Hadergjonaj Midfielder
9
Steve Mounié
Steve Mounié Attacker
10
Güven Yalçın
Güven Yalçın
Attacker77'
14
Ianis Hagi
Ianis Hagi Attacker
27
İbrahim Kaya
İbrahim Kaya
Attacker68'
16
Ui-jo Hwang
Ui-jo Hwang Attacker
7
Efecan Karaca
Efecan Karaca
Midfielder84'
Referee : Yiğit Arslan

Starting XI ▼

35
Gökhan Değirmenci
Gökhan Değirmenci Goalkeeper
2
Anfernee Dijksteel
Anfernee Dijksteel Defender
5
Botond Balogh
Botond Balogh Defender
6
Hrvoje Smolcic
Hrvoje Smolcic Defender
99
Rigoberto Rivas
Rigoberto Rivas Defender
7
Dan Agyei
Dan Agyei Midfielder
23
Samet Yalçın
Samet Yalçın
Midfielder87'
8
Habib Keïta
Habib Keïta Midfielder
70
Can Keleş
Can Keleş
Attacker79'
10
Karol Linetty
Karol Linetty Midfielder
20
Mahamadou Susoho
Mahamadou Susoho
Midfielder46'
17
Darko Churlinov
Darko Churlinov Midfielder
75
Tayfur Bingöl
Tayfur Bingöl
Defender46'
98
Joseph Nonge
Joseph Nonge Midfielder
19
Serdar Dursun
Serdar Dursun Attacker
97
Arda Ozyar
Arda Ozyar
Attacker70'

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Nicolas Janvier
Right foot shot / 5th Goal
88'
87'
Event
Samet Yalçın → Dan Agyei
10th Substitution
Event
Fatih Aksoy → Gaius Makouta
8th Substitution
84'
Event
Efecan Karaca → Ui-jo Hwang
9th Substitution
84'
Event
İbrahim Kaya
Right foot shot / 4th Goal
81'
79'
Event
Can Keleş → Habib Keïta
7th Substitution
Event
Enes Keskin → Ruan
5th Substitution
77'
Event
Güven Yalçın → Steve Mounié
6th Substitution
77'
70'
Event
Arda Ozyar → Serdar Dursun
4th Substitution
Event
İbrahim Kaya → Ianis Hagi
3rd Substitution
68'
Event
Nuno Lima
Header / 3rd Goal
63'
59'
Event
Joseph Nonge
Argument / 3rd Yellowcard
46'
Event
Tayfur Bingöl → Darko Churlinov
1st Substitution
46'
Event
Mahamadou Susoho → Karol Linetty
2nd Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Ui-jo Hwang
Right foot shot / 2nd Goal
31'
Event
Florent Hadergjonaj
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
26'
25'
Event
Habib Keïta
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
21'
Event
Karol Linetty
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Alanyaspor exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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