Akron vs Dinamo Moskva Prediction, Preview and Stats

Russia flag 2025/2026 Premier League, Russia
Samara Arena Mon, 13 Apr - 2:15 PM
Premier League
Akron Akron
2 Winner 3
Dinamo Moskva DMO
Full Time Mon, 13 Apr 2:15 PM
Round 24 Regular Season
Stefan Loncar - 42'
Benchimol - 88' (P)
Goal
|
Goal
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu - 20' (P)
Arthur Gomes - 33'
K. Tyukavin - 90+5'

CONTEXT

The match between Akron and Dinamo Moskva is now finished, ending with a full-time score of 2-3 to the visitors. This result represented a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, with Dinamo Moskva asserting themselves as the stronger side and claiming all three points despite a relatively even contest on paper. Akron and Dinamo Moskva shared possession almost equally at 48% to 52%. With no expected goals data available, the efficiency shift stayed in line with the overall pattern of play. The outcome proved consistent with the pre-match projection that favored Dinamo Moskva's quality ultimately prevailing, even as the score remained competitive following a 1-2 halftime scoreline. No red cards were shown to either team, allowing the match to flow without major disciplinary interruptions. Dinamo Moskva converted their slight territorial edge into a narrow but deserved victory, confirming their status as the more effective side across the full 90 minutes.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Dinamo Moskva showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
I. Kaplenkov
I. Kaplenkov
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.75
A. Stipidi
A. Stipidi
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.75
E. Bolkhovitin
E. Bolkhovitin
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.75
M. Cheremnykh
M. Cheremnykh
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 24.08
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 2.96
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.23
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.75
Akron Z. Tedeev
Z. Tedeev
VS
Dinamo Moskva P. Alpatov
P. Alpatov
1.17
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.33
0.17 i
Last 6 Opponents
CSKA Moskva Rank: L
Lokomotiv Moskva Rank: L
Akhmat Grozny Rank: D
Spartak Moskva Rank: L
Orenburg Rank: L
Zenit Rank: L
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.83 i
Last 6 Opponents
Orenburg Rank: D
Zenit Rank: L
Rostov Rank: W
CSKA Moskva Rank: W
Krylya Sovetov Rank: W
Spartak Moskva Rank: D
1
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
1 - 0 - 2
2

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Akron
0%
Draw
0%
Away Dinamo Moskva
0%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
14.4
28.88
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Akron
Dinamo Moskva
Power Score
14.4
28.88
League Position
12
7
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Akron — Opponent-weighted form score
Dinamo Moskva — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Akron Dinamo Moskva

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Akron

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Dinamo Moskva

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Akron ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
39.06
39.52
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
39.52
39.06
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Akron -0.05 Efficiency Index
vs
Dinamo Moskva +0.05 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Akron
Dinamo Moskva
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Akron ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Dinamo Moskva
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Akron Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Akron Dinamo Moskva
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
1.00 1.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Akron
Dinamo Moskva
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Akron
vs
Dinamo Moskva
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Akron Dinamo Moskva
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Akron 0.29
Dinamo Moskva 0.35
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Akron Dinamo Moskva
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Akron 0.06
Dinamo Moskva 0.04
Akron
Dinamo Moskva
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • DMO had peak pressure around 99'.
  • DMO started the game with stronger pressure.
Akron Pressure DMO Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: DMO reached the top pressure at 99' (99.14).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Akron Akron Home
3 matches
Dinamo Moskva DMO Away
Match Record
1
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
1
Goals
3
Goals Scored
5
5
Goals Conceded
3
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-14T00:00:57+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-3-3
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
V. Gudiev
Russia
88 V. Gudiev
Y. Rocha Rodriguez
Substitution
Bolivia
2 Y. Rocha Rodriguez
J. Pereira Escoval
Portugal
26 J. Pereira Escoval
M. Bokoev
Russia
19 M. Bokoev
R. Fernández Toro
Bolivia
21 R. Fernández Toro
M. Kuzmin
Substitution
Russia
6 M. Kuzmin
A. Đurasović
Substitution
Serbia
5 A. Đurasović
S. Loncar
Montenegro
15 S. Loncar
D. Pestryakov
Russia
71 D. Pestryakov
A. Dzyuba
Russia
22 A. Dzyuba
M. Boldyrev
Substitution
Russia
91 M. Boldyrev
I. Leshchuk
Russia
31 I. Leshchuk
D. Skopintsev
Russia
7 D. Skopintsev
D. Loiola da Silva
Substitution
Brazil
57 D. Loiola da Silva
M. Osipenko
Russia
55 M. Osipenko
N. Marichal
Uruguay
2 N. Marichal
D. Fomin
Russia
74 D. Fomin
T. Marinkin
Substitution
60 T. Marinkin
A. Gomes Lourenço
Brazil
11 A. Gomes Lourenço
A. Miranchuk
Russia
21 A. Miranchuk
N. Ngamaleu
Substitution
Cameroon
13 N. Ngamaleu
I. Sergeev
Substitution
Russia
33 I. Sergeev

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 13, 2026, 02:15 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, Russia · Round 24 · Regular Season
Stadium
Samara Arena
Capacity
44918
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Igor Kaplenkov
Aleksey Stipidi
Egor Bolkhovitin
Mikhail Cheremnykh

Statistics

Possession
Akron
50%
DMO
50%

Top Statistics

2 Goals 3
1 Big Chances Created 5
7 Shots 7
55 Dangerous attacks 51
48 Possession 52
7 Corners 8
9 Free kicks 11
1 Yellow Cards 1

Match Overview

9 Goal Kicks 6
20 Successful Headers 10
50 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
4 Successful Dribbles 5
21 Throwins 18
8 Dribble Attempts 10
2 Penalties 2
1 Assists 2
79 Ball Safe 71
2 Injuries 1
4 Substitutions 4
11 Goal Attempts 15

Attacking

88 Attacks 87
0 Big Chances Missed 2

Possession

71 Long Passes 70
360 Passes 389
34 Successful Long Passes 25
48 Successful Long Passes Percentage 36
251 Successful Passes 286
70 Successful Passes Percentage 74

Defensive

21 Interceptions 11
42 Duels Won 35
4 Saves 3
9 Tackles 9

Build-up

26 Total Crosses 28
8 Accurate Crosses 10

Discipline

0 Offsides 2
13 Fouls 9

Lineup

Referee : Igor Kaplenkov

Starting XI ▼

88
Vitaliy Gudiev
Vitaliy Gudiev Goalkeeper
7.07
2
Yomar Rocha
Yomar Rocha Defender
6.5
11
Benchimol
Benchimol
Attacker64'
6.75
19
Marat Bokoev
Marat Bokoev Defender
6.99
21
Roberto Fernández
Roberto Fernández Defender
6.7
26
Rodrigo Escoval
Rodrigo Escoval Defender
6.38
5
Aleksa Djurasovic
Aleksa Djurasovic Midfielder
6.62
80
Khetag Khosonov
Khetag Khosonov
Midfielder64'
6.69
6
Maksim Kuzmin
Maksim Kuzmin Midfielder
6.62
81
Nikita Bazilevskiy
Nikita Bazilevskiy
Attacker76'
6.71
15
Stefan Loncar
Stefan Loncar Midfielder
6.71
22
Artem Dzyuba
Artem Dzyuba Attacker
7.28
71
Dmitriy Pestryakov
Dmitriy Pestryakov Attacker
6.87
91
Maksim Boldyrev
Maksim Boldyrev Attacker
6.86
10
K. Arévalo
K. Arévalo
Attacker76'
6.82
Referee : Igor Kaplenkov

Starting XI ▼

31
Igor Leshchuk
Igor Leshchuk Goalkeeper
6.56
2
Nicolás Marichal
Nicolás Marichal Defender
7.02
7
Dmitri Skopintsev
Dmitri Skopintsev Defender
6.61
55
Maksim Osipenko
Maksim Osipenko Defender
6.95
57
David Ricardo
David Ricardo Defender
6.87
56
Leon Zaydenzal
Leon Zaydenzal
Defender46'
6.42
11
Arthur Gomes
Arthur Gomes Midfielder
6.87
13
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu Midfielder
6.67
91
Y. Gladyshev
Y. Gladyshev
Attacker57'
6.65
21
Anton Miranchuk
Anton Miranchuk Midfielder
7
60
Timofey Marinkin
Timofey Marinkin Midfielder
6.67
15
Danil Glebov
Danil Glebov
Midfielder57'
6.72
74
Daniil Fomin
Daniil Fomin Midfielder
6.79
33
Ivan Sergeev
Ivan Sergeev Attacker
6.81
70
K. Tyukavin
K. Tyukavin
Attacker57'
6.98

Events

2ND-HALF
90+5'
Event
K. Tyukavin
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
Event
Benchimol
Right foot shot / 2nd Penalty
88'
Event
Roberto Fernández
Penalty awarded
88'
87'
Event
Leon Zaydenzal
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
K. Arévalo → Maksim Boldyrev
7th Substitution
76'
Event
Nikita Bazilevskiy → Maksim Kuzmin
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Khetag Khosonov → Aleksa Djurasovic
6th Substitution
64'
Event
Benchimol → Yomar Rocha
5th Substitution
64'
57'
Event
Danil Glebov → Timofey Marinkin
3rd Substitution
57'
Event
Y. Gladyshev → Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
2nd Substitution
57'
Event
K. Tyukavin → Ivan Sergeev
4th Substitution
46'
Event
Leon Zaydenzal → David Ricardo
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Marat Bokoev
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
45+1'
Event
Stefan Loncar
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
42'
33'
Event
Arthur Gomes
Right foot shot / 1st Goal
20'
Event
Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu
Right foot shot / 1st Penalty

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Dinamo Moskva exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

Related Football Previews

Explore League Previews

Premier League View all league clusters