AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United Prediction, Preview and Stats

England flag 2025/2026 Premier League, England
Vitality Stadium Wed, 22 Apr - 7:00 PM
Premier League
AFC Bournemouth BOU
Versus
Leeds United LEE
KICKOFF : Wed, 22 Apr - 7:00 PM
Round 34 Regular Season

CONTEXT

AFC Bournemouth will play Leeds United in the Premier League Regular Season at Vitality Stadium. The team from the south coast sits in 11th position in the table, with Leeds United currently placed 15th. Bournemouth's season form reads W1 D5 L0 from 6 matches. Leeds United's season form reads W1 D3 L2 from 6 matches. Bournemouth's last outing was a draw away at Newcastle United, while Leeds United's last outing was a draw home versus Wolverhampton Wanderers. These results show that the home team has avoided defeat in recent weeks. The visitors have had a mixed run. This league match could be influenced by both teams' recent tendency to share the points.

TL;DR

  • Structural: Leeds United hold a +1.4 pts power-ranking advantage heading into this fixture.
  • Form: AFC Bournemouth sit above baseline on opponent-adjusted form.
  • Squad: No major squad or availability edge; impact is neutral.
  • Efficiency: AFC Bournemouth show stronger possession-adjusted chance creation in the data.
  • Transition: Leeds United have a moderate edge in transition threat.
  • Set pieces: Leeds United carry higher set-play value and dead-ball upside.
  • xVariable: Leeds United hold a marginal advantage on underlying metrics.
  • Market: AFC Bournemouth 45.6% (Δ+0%) | Draw 26.8% (Δ+0%) | Leeds United 27.6% (Δ+0%).
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
Jan 25 vs Team A
Feb 1 vs Team B
Feb 8 vs Team C
AFC Bournemouth A. Iraola
A. Iraola
VS
Leeds United D. Farke
D. Farke
1.24
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.16
1.33 i
Last 6 Opponents
Newcastle United Rank: D
Arsenal Rank: W
Manchester United Rank: D
Burnley Rank: D
Brentford Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wolverhampton Wanderers Rank: D
Manchester United Rank: W
Brentford Rank: D
Crystal Palace Rank: D
Sunderland Rank: L
Manchester City Rank: L
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 1 - 4
4
No sidelined player data available.

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home AFC Bournemouth
45.64%
Draw
26.79%
Away Leeds United
27.58%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
27.92
29.35
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
AFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
Power Score
27.92
29.35
League Position
11
15
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
AFC Bournemouth — Opponent-weighted form score
Leeds United — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) AFC Bournemouth Leeds United

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 7 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

AFC Bournemouth BOU Home
7 matches
Leeds United LEE Away
Match Record
2
Wins
4
1
Draws
1
4
Losses
2
Goals
15
Goals Scored
14
14
Goals Conceded
15
+1
Goal Difference
-1
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-16T02:09:02+00:00

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 22, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premier League, England · Round 34 · Regular Season
Stadium
Vitality Stadium
Capacity
11700
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Michael Salisbury
Marc Perry
Natalie Aspinall
Samuel Allison

Squad

Referee : Michael Salisbury

Squad ▼

17
Fraser Forster
Fraser Forster Goalkeeper
1
Đorđe Petrović
Đorđe Petrović Goalkeeper
29
Christos Mandas
Christos Mandas Goalkeeper
15
Adam Smith
Adam Smith Defender
5
Marcos Senesi
Marcos Senesi Defender
23
James Hill
James Hill Defender
18
Bafodé Diakité
Bafodé Diakité Defender
3
Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert Defender
20
Alejandro Jiménez Sánchez
Alejandro Jiménez Sánchez Defender
45
Matai Akinmboni
Matai Akinmboni Defender
6
Julio César Soler Barreto
Julio César Soler Barreto Defender
44
Veljko Milosavljević
Veljko Milosavljević Defender
4
Lewis Cook
Lewis Cook Midfielder
19
Justin Kluivert
Justin Kluivert Midfielder
10
Ryan Christie
Ryan Christie Midfielder
12
Tyler Adams
Tyler Adams Midfielder
16
Marcus Tavernier
Marcus Tavernier Midfielder
8
A. Scott
A. Scott Midfielder
27
Alex Tóth
Alex Tóth Midfielder
7
David Brooks
David Brooks Attacker
26
Enes Ünal
Enes Ünal Attacker
9
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa
Francisco Evanilson de Lima Barbosa Attacker
21
Amine Adli
Amine Adli Attacker
11
Ben Doak
Ben Doak Attacker
22
Eli Junior Kroupi
Eli Junior Kroupi Attacker
37
Rayan Rocha
Rayan Rocha Attacker
Referee : Michael Salisbury

Squad ▼

26
Karl Darlow
Karl Darlow Goalkeeper
21
Alex Cairns
Alex Cairns Goalkeeper
16
Illan Meslier
Illan Meslier Goalkeeper
1
Lucas Estella Perri
Lucas Estella Perri Goalkeeper
25
Sam Byram
Sam Byram Defender
24
James Justin
James Justin Defender
5
Pascal Struijk
Pascal Struijk Defender
3
Gabriel Gudmundsson
Gabriel Gudmundsson Defender
6
Joe Rodon
Joe Rodon Defender
2
Jayden Bogle
Jayden Bogle Defender
15
Jaka Bijol
Jaka Bijol Defender
23
Sebastiaan Bornauw
Sebastiaan Bornauw Defender
4
Ethan Ampadu
Ethan Ampadu Midfielder
8
Sean Longstaff
Sean Longstaff Midfielder
22
Ao Tanaka
Ao Tanaka Midfielder
18
Anton Stach
Anton Stach Midfielder
44
Ilia Gruev
Ilia Gruev Midfielder
11
Brenden Aaronson
Brenden Aaronson Midfielder
40
Facundo Valentín Buonanotte
Facundo Valentín Buonanotte Midfielder
50
Charlie Crew
Charlie Crew Midfielder
9
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Attacker
7
Daniel James
Daniel James Attacker
10
Joël Piroe
Joël Piroe Attacker
14
Lukas Nmecha
Lukas Nmecha Attacker
19
Noah Okafor
Noah Okafor Attacker
29
Degnand Wilfried Gnonto
Degnand Wilfried Gnonto Attacker

CONCLUSION

Leeds United enters with the stronger pre-match profile, recording a power advantage of 1.4 points. Although projections point to AFC Bournemouth as the leader given the 46.3 percent home figure against 27.2 percent for Leeds United, the projection and structural signals diverge. AFC Bournemouth stands in 11th position in the Premier League with a form record of W1 D5 L0 from six matches in contrast to Leeds United's 15th place and W1 D3 L2 from six matches. Both teams most recently played to a draw. Careful execution in managing set piece situations will be essential for either side to secure the result.

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