Aberdeen vs Falkirk Prediction, Preview and Stats

Scotland flag 2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Pittodrie Stadium Sat, 14 Mar - 3:00 PM
Premiership
Aberdeen ABE
1 – 1
Falkirk Falkirk
Full Time Sat, 14 Mar 3:00 PM
Kevin Nisbet - 73'
Goal
|
Goal
Barney Stewart - 89'

CONTEXT

The match between Aberdeen and Falkirk has finished in a 1-1 draw. After a tightly contested first half that ended completely scoreless, both teams managed to find the back of the net in the second period, ultimately sharing the points. This result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, frustrating Falkirk, who entered the contest as the stronger team. The pre-match market gave the visitors a 39.8% chance of victory, compared to Aberdeen's 32.1% and a 28.2% probability for a draw. Consequently, the final outcome failed to align with the pre-match market forecasts. On the pitch, Falkirk controlled the tempo, holding 58% of the possession compared to Aberdeen's 42%. Expected goals (xG) data was unavailable for this fixture, making it impossible to determine if the 1-1 draw aligned with the underlying chances created by either side. However, the overall efficiency shift was recorded as being in line with standard play. The match concluded cleanly with zero red cards issued to either team, ensuring that disciplinary issues did not artificially impact the closely fought result.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Falkirk showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
C. Scott
C. Scott
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Potter
D. Potter
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
S. Anderson
S. Anderson
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
D. Graves
D. Graves
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 10.69
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 1.85
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.08
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.15
Aberdeen Peter Leven
Peter Leven
VS
Falkirk J. McGlynn
J. McGlynn
1.42
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.52
0.67 i
Last 6 Opponents
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Rangers Rank: 77 L
Falkirk Rank: 65 L
Hibernian Rank: 69 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 D
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Kilmarnock Rank: 56 W
Hearts Rank: 73 L
Dundee United Rank: 62 L
Dundee Rank: 57 W
Livingston Rank: 53 W
Celtic Rank: 78 L
10
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
10 - 3 - 5
5

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Aberdeen
32.07%
Draw
28.17%
Away Falkirk
39.76%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
56.84
59.79
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Aberdeen
Falkirk
Power Score
56.84
59.79
League Position
9
6
Global Rank
551
293

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Aberdeen — Opponent-weighted form score
Falkirk — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Aberdeen Falkirk

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Aberdeen

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Falkirk

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Aberdeen ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Falkirk
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
25.24
17.67
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
17.67
25.24
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Aberdeen +0.63 Efficiency Index
vs
Falkirk -0.63 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Aberdeen
Falkirk
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Aberdeen
vs
Falkirk
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Aberdeen Falkirk
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
0%
0%
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
+0.00 vs +0.00
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Aberdeen Falkirk
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
Aberdeen
Falkirk
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 2 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Aberdeen ABE Home
2 matches
Falkirk Falkirk Away
Match Record
0
Wins
2
0
Draws
0
2
Losses
0
Goals
0
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
0
-2
Goal Difference
+2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-16T01:02:24+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 4-2-3-1
Pitch
D. Mitov
Bulgaria
1 D. Mitov
J. Milne
Scotland
22 J. Milne
L. Morrison
Scotland
23 L. Morrison
G. Molloy
Republic of Ireland
21 G. Molloy
D. Lobban
Scotland
38 D. Lobban
S. Armstrong
Substitution
Scotland
16 S. Armstrong
G. Shinnie
Substitution
Scotland
4 (C) G. Shinnie
D. Geiger
Substitution
Germany
8 D. Geiger
M. Frame
Substitution
Scotland
3 M. Frame
K. Nisbet
Scotland
15 K. Nisbet
M. Lazetić
Substitution
Serbia
27 M. Lazetić
S. Bain
Scotland
19 S. Bain
L. McCann
Scotland
3 L. McCann
L. Henderson
Scotland
5 L. Henderson
C. Donaldson
Scotland
6 (C) C. Donaldson
F. Lissah
England
28 F. Lissah
D. Tait
Substitution
Scotland
21 D. Tait
B. Spencer
Scotland
8 B. Spencer
C. Miller
Substitution
Scotland
29 C. Miller
F. Yeats
Substitution
Scotland
14 F. Yeats
B. Broggio
Substitution
England
11 B. Broggio
B. Stewart
16 B. Stewart

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 14, 2026, 03:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Premiership, Scotland
Stadium
Pittodrie Stadium
Capacity
20866
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Calum Scott
Dougie Potter
Scott Robert Anderson
Daniel Graves

Statistics

Possession
ABE
44%
Falkirk
56%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 1
4 Big Chances Created 0
3 Shots 4
32 Dangerous attacks 65
42 Possession 58
4 Corners 10
6 Free kicks 17
1 Yellow Cards 0

Match Overview

4 Successful Dribbles 5
29 Successful Headers 20
11 Dribble Attempts 10
8 Goal Kicks 7
31 Throwins 29
83 Ball Safe 69
36 Successful Dribbles Percentage 50
5 Substitutions 4
0 Injuries 1
0 Assists 1

Attacking

3 Big Chances Missed 0
112 Attacks 121

Possession

6 Key Passes 5
20 Successful Long Passes 38
27 Successful Long Passes Percentage 45
74 Long Passes 85
219 Successful Passes 330
63 Successful Passes Percentage 71
345 Passes 465

Defensive

2 Saves 2
14 Interceptions 8
15 Tackles 13

Build-up

12 Total Crosses 24
3 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

17 Fouls 6
1 Offsides 4

Lineup

Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

1
Dimitar Mitov
Dimitar Mitov Goalkeeper
6.4
21
Gavin Molloy
Gavin Molloy Defender
6.66
22
Jack Milne
Jack Milne Defender
6.62
23
Liam Morrison
Liam Morrison Defender
7.06
3
Mitchel Frame
Mitchel Frame Midfielder
6.69
28
Alexander Jensen
Alexander Jensen
Midfielder81'
6.27
4
Graeme Shinnie
Graeme Shinnie (C) Midfielder
6.72
18
Ante Palaversa
Ante Palaversa
Midfielder61'
6.26
8
Dennis Geiger
Dennis Geiger Midfielder
6.7
6
Sivert Heltne Nilsen
Sivert Heltne Nilsen
Midfielder84'
6.48
16
Stuart Armstrong
Stuart Armstrong Midfielder
7.24
25
Lyall Cameron
Lyall Cameron
Midfielder61'
6.43
38
Dylan Lobban
Dylan Lobban Midfielder
7.1
15
Kevin Nisbet
Kevin Nisbet Attacker
6.99
27
Marko Lazetić
Marko Lazetić Attacker
6.45
20
Toyosi Olusanya
Toyosi Olusanya
Attacker61'
6.28
Referee : Calum Scott

Starting XI ▼

19
Scott Bain
Scott Bain Goalkeeper
6.05
3
Leon McCann
Leon McCann Defender
6.01
5
Liam Henderson
Liam Henderson Defender
7.29
6
Coll Donaldson
Coll Donaldson (C) Defender
7.05
28
Filip Lissah
Filip Lissah Defender
6.76
8
Brad Spencer
Brad Spencer Midfielder
7.21
11
Ben Broggio
Ben Broggio Midfielder
6.79
23
Ethan Ross
Ethan Ross
Attacker69'
6.85
14
Finn Yeats
Finn Yeats Midfielder
6.29
24
E. Williams
E. Williams
Attacker75'
6.45
21
Dylan Tait
Dylan Tait Midfielder
7.18
17
Henry Cartwright
Henry Cartwright
Midfielder69'
6.53
29
Calvin Miller
Calvin Miller Midfielder
6.32
7
Brian Graham
Brian Graham
Attacker81'
6.45
16
Barney Stewart
Barney Stewart Attacker
7.31

Events

2ND-HALF
89'
Event
Barney Stewart
Header / 2nd Goal
Event
Sivert Heltne Nilsen → Dennis Geiger
9th Substitution
84'
Event
Alexander Jensen → Mitchel Frame
8th Substitution
81'
81'
Event
Brian Graham → Calvin Miller
7th Substitution
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
80'
75'
Event
E. Williams → Finn Yeats
6th Substitution
Event
Kevin Nisbet
Header / 1st Goal
73'
69'
Event
Henry Cartwright → Dylan Tait
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Ethan Ross → Ben Broggio
5th Substitution
Event
Ante Palaversa → Graeme Shinnie
3rd Substitution
61'
Event
Toyosi Olusanya → Marko Lazetić
2nd Substitution
61'
Event
Lyall Cameron → Stuart Armstrong
1st Substitution
61'

Match Commentary

89
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Barney Stewart from Falkirk scores a goal in the 89th minute.
84
Substitution Substitution
Sivert Heltne Nilsen is being substituted out for Aberdeen in the 84th minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Alexander Jensen from Aberdeen is being substituted in the 81st minute.
81
Substitution Substitution
Brian Graham of Falkirk has been substituted in the 81st minute.
80
Yellow Card Yellow Card Important
Kevin Nisbet of Aberdeen receives a yellow card in the 80th minute.
75
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Williams of Falkirk is being substituted in the 75th minute.
73
GOAL! GOAL! Important
Kevin Nisbet scores for Aberdeen in the 73rd minute.
69
Substitution Substitution
Henry Cartwright has been substituted for Falkirk in the 69th minute.
69
Substitution Substitution
Ethan Ross of Falkirk has been substituted in the 69th minute.

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Falkirk exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was contrary to the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was outside the projected probability range.

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