Newcastle United vs Sunderland Prediction, Preview and Stats
2025/2026 Premier League, England
Premier League
Sunderland
SUN
STANDINGS
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|
CONTEXT
The match has officially finished with Sunderland securing a 2-0 away victory over Newcastle United. This full-time result represents a significant deviation from pre-match expectations, heavily favouring the away side. Newcastle entered the contest as the decidedly stronger team with a commanding 60.9% market probability to win. Conversely, Sunderland was given just a 16.3% chance of
TL;DR
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Structural deviation: Sunderland showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
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Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
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xG alignment: The final outcome was consistent with expected goal differential.
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Market alignment: End result was diverging from the pre-match projection.
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xG expectations: Aligned with xG expectations (Classify).
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Event impact: No major event distortion.
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Red card distortion: None.
Quality vs Volume
Open Play vs Set Play
Expected Points
| Team | xPts |
|---|---|
| Home | 1.8 |
| Away | 1.2 |
Win Probabilities
Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Newcastle United
Sunderland
Team Power Ranking
i
90.02
82
Newcastle United
Sunderland
Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted
Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.
Heatmaps Ball coordinates
Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.
Newcastle United
Sunderland
Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted
How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage
Newcastle United
⚠ Proxy
Attacking Efficiency
Defensive Efficiency
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence
Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.
Newcastle United
Newcastle United
Sunderland
Newcastle United
Sunderland
Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons
Summary of 26 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.
Match Record
Goals
Expected Goals
Data last updated: 2026-03-27T12:23:52+00:00
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General Information
Next Match
Newcastle United
vs
Crystal Palace
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Venue: Away
Sunderland
vs
Tottenham Hotspur
League: Premier League
Kickoff: Sun, 12 Apr - 1:00 PM
Venue: Home
Statistics
Top Statistics
Match Overview
Attacking
Possession
Defensive
Build-up
Discipline
Lineup
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Match Commentary