Zagłębie Lubin vs Nieciecza Prediction, Preview and Stats

Poland flag 2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin Fri, 24 Apr - 4:00 PM
Ekstraklasa
Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin
1 Winner 2
Nieciecza Nieciecza
Full Time Fri, 24 Apr 4:00 PM
Round 30 Regular Season
Marcel Regula - 20'
Goal
|
Goal
Damian Hilbrycht - 60'
Ivan Durdov - 90+4'
Marcel Regula 66' Second yellow card
|

Zagłębie Lubin vs Nieciecza preview with tactical analysis, xG context, lineup signals, and data-backed betting insights for faster decisions.

Use this page as a quick-read snapshot first, then continue to deep stats and methodology references below.

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CONTEXT

Zagłębie Lubin fell 1-2 to Nieciecza at home, overturning a 1-0 halftime lead. Despite being the stronger team on paper, Zagłębie managed only 42% possession against Nieciecza's 58%. The home side struck first before the break, but a red card in the second half proved decisive, allowing Nieciecza to dominate and score twice. This disciplinary lapse distorted the game's structure, enabling the visitors to exploit their numerical advantage. With xG data unavailable, performance metrics rely on possession and events. The outcome showed minimal deviation at 5.8%, with market alignment confirmed. Efficiency remained in line with expectations, underscoring how the red card shifted momentum entirely in Nieciecza's favor.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Nieciecza's victory exhibited minimal structural deviation of 5.8%.
  • Efficiency shift: Efficiency shift stayed in line with expectations.
  • xG alignment: xG alignment cannot be assessed due to unavailable data.
  • Market alignment: Market fully aligned with Nieciecza's win.
  • xG expectations: xG expectations unmeasurable without data.
  • Event impact: Red card to Zagłębie Lubin directly enabled Nieciecza's comeback.
  • Red card distortion: Red card distortion defined second-half adjustments.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
D. Kos
D. Kos
Referee • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
P. Sokolnicki
P. Sokolnicki
1st Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
D. Bohonos
D. Bohonos
2nd Assistant • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
P. Wrzeszczyński
P. Wrzeszczyński
4th Official • 25 matches
Fouls / Match
Referee 0.52
League Avg 20.75
Yellow Cards / Match
Referee 0.12
League Avg 3.28
Red Cards / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.19
Penalties / Match
Referee 0
League Avg 0.22
Zagłębie Lubin L. Ojrzynski
L. Ojrzynski
VS
Nieciecza M. Brosz
M. Brosz
1.56
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
0.94
1 i
Last 6 Opponents
Legia Warszawa Rank: L
Radomiak Radom Rank: W
Arka Gdynia Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
0.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Wisła Płock Rank: L
Widzew Lodz Rank: L
Piast Gliwice Rank: W
Lech Poznań Rank: L
Motor Lublin Rank: L
Korona Kielce Rank: L
6
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
6 - 2 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Zagłębie Lubin
0.19%
Draw
5.65%
Away Nieciecza
94.16%

Movement

Changes since opening
Zagłębie Lubin
0%
Draw
+0.56%
Nieciecza
-0.56%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power score: composite of opponent-weighted form (last 6 & 20 games) and league position over last 3 seasons.
23.65
17.07
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Zagłębie Lubin
Nieciecza
Power Score
23.65
17.07
League Position
5
18
Global Rank
-
-

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Zagłębie Lubin — Opponent-weighted form score
Nieciecza — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Zagłębie Lubin

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Nieciecza

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
27.98
29.14
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
29.14
27.98
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Zagłębie Lubin -0.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Nieciecza +0.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Nieciecza
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Zagłębie Lubin ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Nieciecza
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Zagłębie Lubin
Nieciecza
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG

Counter / Transition Attack & Defence

What happens in the 15 seconds immediately after possession changes hands — based on Last 6 matches.

–
Zagłębie Lubin
vs
Nieciecza
Attack After Winning Possession transition → offence
Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza
Goals per Match Average goals scored within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Shots per Match Average shots taken within 15s of winning the ball per match. ↑ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Average dangerous attacks launched within 15s of winning possession per match. ↑ better
—
—
Transition Efficiency Index Composite score (0–1) of how efficiently this team attacks within 15s of winning the ball. Higher = more dangerous on transition. Higher = stronger on the counter
Zagłębie Lubin 0.29
Nieciecza 0.39
Defence After Losing Possession loss → defensive exposure
Zagłębie Lubin Nieciecza
Goals Conceded Average goals conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Shots Conceded Average shots conceded within 15s of losing the ball per match. ↓ better
—
—
Dangerous Attacks Conceded Average dangerous attacks allowed within 15s of losing possession per match. ↓ better
—
—
Vulnerability Index Composite score (0–1) of how exposed this team is within 15s of losing the ball. Lower = better at preventing transition attacks. Lower = better transition defence
Zagłębie Lubin 0.05
Nieciecza 0.03
Zagłębie Lubin
Nieciecza
Window = 15s post-possession change
Index = 0–1 composite score

PRESSURE INDEX

Momentum phases from smoothed minute-by-minute pressure.

  • Nieciecza had peak pressure around 61'.
  • Zagłębie Lubin started the game with stronger pressure.
Zagłębie Lubin Pressure Nieciecza Pressure
⚡
Pressure Index: Nieciecza reached the top pressure at 61' (80.92).

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 9 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Zagłębie Lubin Zagłębie Lubin Home
9 matches
Nieciecza Nieciecza Away
Match Record
6
Wins
1
2
Draws
2
1
Losses
6
Goals
15
Goals Scored
6
6
Goals Conceded
15
+9
Goal Difference
-9
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-04-25T00:00:51+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 4-1-3-2
Match Formation 3-4-2-1
Pitch
J. Burić
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 J. Burić
I. Orlikowski
Poland
31 I. Orlikowski
M. Nalepa
Poland
25 M. Nalepa
D. Michalski
Poland
4 D. Michalski
J. Čorluka
Bosnia and Herzegovina
16 J. Čorluka
D. Dąbrowski
Substitution
Poland
8 D. Dąbrowski
M. Grzybek
Substitution
Poland
13 M. Grzybek
A. Radwański
Substitution
Poland
18 A. Radwański
M. Dziewiatowski
Substitution
Poland
20 M. Dziewiatowski
M. Reguła
Poland
44 M. Reguła
L. Szabo
Substitution
Hungary
17 L. Szabo
A. Chovan
Slovakia
1 A. Chovan
A. Kasperkiewicz
Poland
3 A. Kasperkiewicz
L. Masoero Masi
Argentina
5 L. Masoero Masi
M. Matysik
Substitution
Poland
32 M. Matysik
D. Hilbrycht
Poland
21 D. Hilbrycht
I. Strzałek
Substitution
Poland
86 I. Strzałek
M. Ambrosiewicz
Poland
28 M. Ambrosiewicz
R. Boboc
Romania
27 R. Boboc
J. Jiménez Núñez
Spain
9 J. Jiménez Núñez
M. Faßbender
Substitution
Germany
7 M. Faßbender
K. Zapolnik
Substitution
Poland
25 K. Zapolnik

General Information

Date & Time
Apr 24, 2026, 04:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Ekstraklasa, Poland · Round 30 · Regular Season
Stadium
Stadion Zagłębia Lubin
Capacity
16068
Attendance
4722
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Damian Kos
Pawel Sokolnicki
Dariusz Bohonos
Paweł Wrzeszczyński

Statistics

Possession
Zagłębie Lubin
46%
Nieciecza
54%

Top Statistics

1 Goals 2
1 Big Chances Created 2
5 Shots 3
35 Dangerous attacks 38
42 Possession 58
6 Corners 4
16 Free kicks 11
6 Yellow Cards 2
1 Red Cards 0

Match Overview

67 Successful Dribbles Percentage 40
7 Goal Kicks 11
9 Dribble Attempts 15
19 Throwins 22
1 Assists 1
6 Successful Dribbles 6
7 Goal Attempts 8
60 Ball Safe 50
5 Substitutions 4
1 Injuries 0

Attacking

79 Attacks 75
0 Big Chances Missed 1

Possession

62 Long Passes 43
25 Successful Long Passes 21
185 Successful Passes 314
275 Passes 389
67 Successful Passes Percentage 81
40 Successful Long Passes Percentage 49
8 Key Passes 9

Defensive

74 Duels Won 41
6 Saves 1
16 Tackles 8
4 Interceptions 3

Build-up

19 Total Crosses 29
5 Accurate Crosses 4

Discipline

11 Fouls 16
0 Offsides 1

Lineup

Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Jasmin Buric
Jasmin Buric Goalkeeper
7.01
4
Damian Michalski
Damian Michalski Defender
6.9
16
Josip Corluka
Josip Corluka Defender
6.8
25
Michal Nalepa
Michal Nalepa Defender
7.1
31
Igor Orlikowski
Igor Orlikowski Defender
6.65
8
Damian Dabrowski
Damian Dabrowski Midfielder
7.04
7
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Sebastian Kowalczyk
Midfielder77'
6.51
13
Mateusz Grzybek
Mateusz Grzybek Midfielder
7
35
Luka Lucic
Luka Lucic
Defender63'
6.89
18
Adam Radwanski
Adam Radwanski Midfielder
6.79
19
Jakub Sypek
Jakub Sypek
Midfielder64'
6.59
20
Mateusz Dziewiatowski
Mateusz Dziewiatowski Midfielder
6.53
39
Filip Kocaba
Filip Kocaba
Midfielder64'
6.68
17
Levente Szabó
Levente Szabó Attacker
6.86
9
Michalis Kosidis
Michalis Kosidis
Attacker77'
6.74
44
Marcel Regula
Marcel Regula Attacker
6.78
Referee : Damian Kos

Starting XI ▼

1
Adrian Chovan
Adrian Chovan Goalkeeper
7.03
3
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz
Arkadiusz Kasperkiewicz Defender
6.78
5
Lucas Masoero
Lucas Masoero Defender
6.52
32
Milosz Matysik
Milosz Matysik Defender
6.43
29
Gabriel Isik
Gabriel Isik
Defender46'
6.72
21
Damian Hilbrycht
Damian Hilbrycht Midfielder
6.83
27
Radu Boboc
Radu Boboc Midfielder
6.68
28
Maciej Ambrosiewicz
Maciej Ambrosiewicz Midfielder
6.82
86
Igor Strzalek
Igor Strzalek Midfielder
6.62
17
Dominik Biniek
Dominik Biniek
Midfielder83'
6.62
7
Morgan Faßbender
Morgan Faßbender Attacker
6.6
8
Rafal Kurzawa
Rafal Kurzawa
Midfielder64'
6.87
9
Jesús Jiménez
Jesús Jiménez Attacker
6.71
25
Kamil Zapolnik
Kamil Zapolnik Attacker
6.84
19
Ivan Durdov
Ivan Durdov
Attacker78'
6.68

Events

2ND-HALF
90+4'
Event
Ivan Durdov
Header / 3rd Goal
83'
Event
Dominik Biniek → Igor Strzalek
9th Substitution
78'
Event
Ivan Durdov → Kamil Zapolnik
8th Substitution
Event
Michalis Kosidis → Levente Szabó
6th Substitution
77'
Event
Sebastian Kowalczyk → Damian Dabrowski
7th Substitution
77'
Event
Luka Lucic
Argument / 7th Yellowcard
76'
Event
Marcel Regula
Foul / 1st Yellow/red Card
66'
Event
Jakub Sypek → Adam Radwanski
5th Substitution
64'
Event
Filip Kocaba → Mateusz Dziewiatowski
3rd Substitution
64'
64'
Event
Rafal Kurzawa → Morgan Faßbender
4th Substitution
Event
Luka Lucic → Mateusz Grzybek
2nd Substitution
63'
60'
Event
Damian Hilbrycht
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
Event
Marcel Regula
Argument / 6th Yellowcard
58'
46'
Event
Gabriel Isik → Milosz Matysik
1st Substitution
1ST-HALF
Event
Adam Radwanski
Time wasting / 5th Yellowcard
42'
Event
Mateusz Grzybek
Foul / 4th Yellowcard
37'
Event
Marcel Regula
Header / 1st Goal
20'
15'
Event
Kamil Zapolnik
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
12'
Event
Damian Hilbrycht
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
Event
Michal Nalepa
Foul / 1st Yellowcard
10'

CONCLUSION

Nieciecza's 1-2 triumph over stronger hosts Zagłębie Lubin exemplifies red card impact in modern football. Leading 1-0 at halftime, Zagłębie's dismissal handed Nieciecza control, aligning with their 58% possession edge. Minimal 5.8% deviation and market consistency affirm the result's legitimacy despite the upset. Absent xG, efficiency in line highlights event-driven variance. This loss serves as a caution for Zagłębie on discipline, while Nieciecza's resilience boosts confidence. Structural integrity held, but red card distortion remains the defining narrative.

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