Venezia vs Calcio Padova Prediction, Preview and Stats

Italy flag 2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo Tue, 17 Mar - 7:00 PM
Serie B
Venezia VEN
3 Winner 1
Calcio Padova PAD
Full Time Tue, 17 Mar 7:00 PM
Michael Svoboda - 41'
Issa Doumbia - 46'
Kike Pérez - 74'
Goal
|
Goal
Alessandro Capelli - 82'

CONTEXT

Match is finished. Venezia 3–1 Calcio Padova. The result saw Venezia take the points. Venezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels. The end result aligned with the pre-match projection. Possession was 66%–34%.

TL;DR

  • Structural deviation: Venezia showed a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline.
  • Efficiency shift: Possession-adjusted chance creation was in line with projected levels.
  • xG alignment: The final outcome was insufficient data for expected goal differential.
  • Market alignment: End result was aligned with the pre-match projection.
  • xG expectations: Inconclusive for xG expectations (Classify).
  • Event impact: No major event distortion.
  • Red card distortion: None.
No standings statistics available.
No head-to-head records found.
0.5+ goals: 85%
1.5+ goals: 70%
2.5+ goals: 50%
3.5+ goals: 25%
Confidence: High (≥8 matches)

Quality vs Volume

Home: xG 1.8, Shots 12, xG/Shot 0.15
Away: xG 1.5, Shots 14, xG/Shot 0.11

Open Play vs Set Play

Open Play: 65%
Set Play: 35%

Expected Points

TeamxPts
Home1.8
Away1.2
ℹ️ Methodology: Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality
No referee statistics available.
Venezia G. Stroppa
G. Stroppa
VS
Calcio Padova M. Andreoletti
M. Andreoletti
2.22
Avg Points / Game (Last 100 Matches)
1.32
2.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Pescara Rank: 43 W
Cesena Rank: 54 W
Modena Rank: 59 L
Frosinone Rank: 65 W
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Mantova Rank: 49 W
Avg Points / Game (Last 6 Matches)
1.5 i
Last 6 Opponents
Spezia Rank: 52 D
Modena Rank: 59 W
Bari 1908 Rank: 49 D
Sampdoria Rank: 54 L
Carrarese Rank: 53 W
Juve Stabia Rank: 57 D
2
Head to Head (Wins - Draws - Losses)
2 - 0 - 1
1

Win Probabilities

Live Win Probability (90 Min)
Home Venezia
76.07%
Draw
14.75%
Away Calcio Padova
9.18%

Team Power Ranking

i
What is Power Ranking?
Power ranking is SportMonks' model-based team strength indicator. Historical input capped to 2 seasons.
61.81
47.93
0 (Weakest) 100 (Strongest)
Metric
Venezia
Calcio Padova
Power Score
61.81
47.93
League Position
1
11
Global Rank
206
776

Form Analysis Opponent-Weighted

Line chart of recent results (points/trend). Friendlies excluded by default. Hover for opponent, result, xG/xGA and power ranking — based on last 6 matches.

–
vs
Venezia — Opponent-weighted form score
Calcio Padova — Opponent-weighted form score
Win (3 pts) Draw (1 pt) Loss (0 pts) Venezia Calcio Padova

Heatmaps Ball coordinates

Attack and defence zones from ball position data. Filters: last 6 matches (overall/home/away), time period, competition.

–
vs

Venezia

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Calcio Padova

Left / Center / Right —
Opposition half density —
vs season average —

Possession Efficiency Possession-Adjusted

How effectively each team uses and defends their share of possession. Efficiency adjusted based on team possession percentage

Venezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Attacking Efficiency
Higher is better
Attacking Efficiency
49.70
28.09
Defensive Efficiency
Lower is better
Defensive Efficiency
28.09
49.70
Combined Efficiency Index Z-score combining attacking and defensive possession-adjusted efficiency.
Positive = above league average.
Negative = below league average.
Formula: EfficiencyIndex = z(AttackEff) − z(DefenceEff)
-3 0 3
Venezia +2.11 Efficiency Index
vs
Calcio Padova -2.11 Efficiency Index
xG data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using shots and dangerous attacks (proxy). Confidence: Medium.
Venezia
Calcio Padova
AttackEff = xG ÷ pos
DefenceEff = xGA ÷ (1−pos)

Set Pieces Efficiency Attack & Defence

Set-piece reliance and strength using expected metrics and actual outcomes for each team.

Venezia ⚠ Proxy
vs
⚠ Proxy Calcio Padova
Created Set-piece attacking threat
Venezia Calcio Padova
Set-piece xG Share Share of total expected goals generated from set pieces. Higher = more set-piece reliant in attack.
—
—
Goals per Match Average set-piece goals scored per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xG) Goals scored minus set-piece xG. Positive = overperforming; Negative = underperforming expectations.
— vs —
Conceded Set-piece defensive exposure
Venezia Calcio Padova
Set-piece xGA Share Share of total expected goals conceded from set pieces. Higher = more exposed to set pieces defensively.
—
—
Conceded per Match Average set-piece goals conceded per match.
0.00 0.00
vs Expected (xGA) Goals conceded minus set-piece xGA. Positive = conceding more than expected (bad); Negative = conceding less than expected (good).
— vs —
xG set-piece data unavailable for both teams. Values estimated using proxy metrics (shots, dangerous attacks). Confidence: Medium.
Venezia
Calcio Padova
xG Share = set-piece xG ÷ total xG
vs Expected = goals − set-piece xG
Counter Attack / Transition data not available for this match.
Pressure Index data not available for this match.

Team Head to Head Last 6 Seasons

Summary of 3 matches between these sides — filtered by competition and venue context.

Venezia VEN Home
3 matches
Calcio Padova PAD Away
Match Record
2
Wins
1
0
Draws
0
1
Losses
2
Goals
4
Goals Scored
2
2
Goals Conceded
4
+2
Goal Difference
-2
Expected Goals
0
xG
0
0
xGA
0

Data last updated: 2026-03-18T00:03:55+00:00

STARTING XI

Match Formation 3-5-2
Match Formation 5-4-1
Pitch
F. Stankovic
Serbia
1 F. Stankovic
J. Schingtienne
Belgium
3 J. Schingtienne
M. Svoboda
Austria
30 (C) M. Svoboda
M. Sverko
Croatia
33 M. Sverko
A. Hainaut
Substitution
France
18 A. Hainaut
E. Pérez Muñoz
Spain
71 E. Pérez Muñoz
G. Busio
Substitution
United States
6 G. Busio
I. Doumbia
Substitution
Italy
8 I. Doumbia
R. Haps
Suriname
5 R. Haps
J. Zamora
Substitution
Ecuador
10 J. Zamora
L. Lauberbach
Germany
29 L. Lauberbach
A. Sorrentino
Italy
22 A. Sorrentino
A. Capelli
Italy
17 A. Capelli
M. Perrotta
Substitution
Italy
5 (C) M. Perrotta
C. Pastina
Italy
58 C. Pastina
L. Villa
Italy
55 L. Villa
C. Faedo
Substitution
Italy
72 C. Faedo
C. Buonaiuto
Substitution
Italy
92 C. Buonaiuto
G. Giunti
Substitution
Italy
86 G. Giunti
P. Fusi
Italy
8 P. Fusi
L. Di Maggio
Italy
23 L. Di Maggio
K. Lasagna
Italy
15 K. Lasagna

General Information

Date & Time
Mar 17, 2026, 07:00 PM
Competition
2025/2026 Serie B, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo
Capacity
11150
Pitch Surface
Grass
Weather
☀️ 12°C, Fair
Referees
Valerio Crezzini

Statistics

Possession
VEN
63%
PAD
37%

Top Statistics

3 Goals 1
7 Big Chances Created 1
30 Shots 8
56 Dangerous attacks 31
66 Possession 34
9 Corners 1
13 Free kicks 9
1 Yellow Cards 3

Match Overview

9 Successful Dribbles 6
53 Successful Dribbles Percentage 67
4 Goal Kicks 11
17 Throwins 23
17 Dribble Attempts 9
2 Assists 1
95 Ball Safe 92
18 Goal Attempts 3
5 Substitutions 5
1 Hit Woodwork 0

Attacking

125 Attacks 82
5 Big Chances Missed 0

Possession

549 Successful Passes 229
88 Successful Passes Percentage 70
21 Key Passes 5
50 Successful Long Passes Percentage 35
19 Successful Long Passes 22
38 Long Passes 62
623 Passes 327

Defensive

16 Tackles 18
2 Saves 6
8 Interceptions 10

Build-up

6 Accurate Crosses 2
17 Total Crosses 5

Discipline

2 Offsides 2
10 Fouls 14

Lineup

Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

1
Filip Stanković
Filip Stanković Goalkeeper
6.78
3
Joël Schingtienne
Joël Schingtienne Defender
6.98
30
Michael Svoboda
Michael Svoboda (C) Defender
8.09
33
Marin Šverko
Marin Šverko Defender
7.05
5
Ridgeciano Haps
Ridgeciano Haps Midfielder
7.36
6
Gianluca Busio
Gianluca Busio Midfielder
7.67
28
Matteo Dagasso
Matteo Dagasso
Midfielder77'
6.43
8
Issa Doumbia
Issa Doumbia Midfielder
7.63
24
Nunzio Lella
Nunzio Lella
Midfielder69'
6.32
18
Antoine Hainaut
Antoine Hainaut Midfielder
7.63
20
Richie Sagrado
Richie Sagrado
Defender86'
71
Kike Pérez
Kike Pérez Midfielder
7.96
10
John Yeboah
John Yeboah Attacker
7.04
21
Mattia Compagnon
Mattia Compagnon
Midfielder68'
6.57
29
Lion Lauberbach
Lion Lauberbach Attacker
6.64
Referee : Valerio Crezzini

Starting XI ▼

22
Alessandro Sorrentino
Alessandro Sorrentino Goalkeeper
6.73
5
Marco Perrotta
Marco Perrotta (C) Defender
6.45
4
Francesco Belli
Francesco Belli
Defender76'
6.39
17
Alessandro Capelli
Alessandro Capelli Defender
7.01
55
Lorenzo Villa
Lorenzo Villa Defender
6.67
58
Christian Pastina
Christian Pastina Defender
6.59
72
Carlo Faedo
Carlo Faedo Defender
5.7
30
Giulio Favale
Giulio Favale
Defender66'
6.4
8
Pietro Fusi
Pietro Fusi Midfielder
6.69
23
Luca Di Maggio
Luca Di Maggio Midfielder
6.55
86
Giovanni Giunti
Giovanni Giunti Midfielder
6.41
6
Lorenzo Crisetig
Lorenzo Crisetig
Midfielder76'
6.43
92
Cristian Buonaiuto
Cristian Buonaiuto Midfielder
6.68
18
Paolo Ghiglione
Paolo Ghiglione
Defender56'
6.41
15
Kevin Lasagna
Kevin Lasagna Attacker
6.75

Events

2ND-HALF
Event
Mattia Compagnon
Argument / 4th Yellowcard
89'
Event
Richie Sagrado → Antoine Hainaut
10th Substitution
86'
82'
Event
Alessandro Capelli
Left foot shot / 4th Goal
Event
Matteo Dagasso → Gianluca Busio
9th Substitution
77'
Event
7th Substitution
76'
76'
Event
8th Substitution
76'
Event
Francesco Belli → Marco Perrotta
5th Substitution
76'
Event
Lorenzo Crisetig → Giovanni Giunti
6th Substitution
Event
Kike Pérez
Left foot shot / 3rd Goal
74'
Event
Nunzio Lella → Issa Doumbia
4th Substitution
69'
Event
Mattia Compagnon → John Yeboah
3rd Substitution
68'
66'
Event
Giulio Favale → Carlo Faedo
2nd Substitution
63'
Event
Marco Perrotta
Foul / 3rd Yellowcard
56'
Event
Paolo Ghiglione → Cristian Buonaiuto
1st Substitution
Event
Issa Doumbia
Left foot shot / 2nd Goal
46'
1ST-HALF
Event
Michael Svoboda
Header / 1st Goal
41'
39'
Event
Pietro Fusi
Foul / 2nd Yellowcard
33'
Event
Carlo Faedo
Foul / 1st Yellowcard

CONCLUSION

Structural assessment: Venezia exhibited a significant deviation from the pre-match structural baseline. Efficiency outcome: Possession-adjusted chance creation finished in line with projected levels. Result alignment: The final score was consistent with the pre-match probability model. Market alignment: The match result was within the projected probability range.

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